PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Distance: 7,261 yards
Par: 71
Field/Cut: 136 golfers, 36 hole cut
Key Stats: Driving Distance, Scrambling, SG: Approach, Proximity to Hole, GFG BoB%
Weather: We are finally off the coast so weather should be a non-factor this week
Breakdown:
Team “No Putt” this week
You want guys that can mash it off of the tee and then be willing to go for the green with a strong approach game
There are multiple scoring holes that you need to go low on and then avoid blowing up on the few “blowup” holes
Speaking of blowup holes, water is typically on the left so you want guys with a low “Left Rough Tendency”
Stay out of trouble and you should be good
Very sticky course history once again
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($11,600) and Justin Thomas ($10,000)
I am going off script for these first two because they are genuinely so much higher owned than everyone else and it is mostly due to salary construction. People are going to want to use their salary and these two allow you to do that. With Xander and Vik withdrawing, the upper 10k range is completely shut out so we get Scottie way up there and models out to be a sure fire hit this week and with the way JT has the current form and course history to draw a ton of ownership as well. Both grade out exceptionally with Scottie 1st and JT 8th in my mixed conditions model which looks a lot of the key stats for Scottsdale. I don’t really have any specifics as to why either of these guys should be faded. DFS Hero has them well above 20% ownership and Scottie pushing 30% ownership. The only negative to either is maybe JT’s optimal rate being lower is a cause for concern. If there was one to fade I think it would be him. That being said, he is in impeccable form, the field strength isn’t too strong and he has great course history. As for Scottie, I genuinely feel like he is going to 3-peat so fading him in my mind feels like a mistake.
Pivot: Balanced Build
I will probably never do this again other than maybe for the lesser-field events with 1 or 2 studs, but there is no true pivot up at the top with JT and Scottie being much higher priced than everyone else. If you want to get some massive leverage, taking them out of your pool and trying to build without them with a balanced build is probably the best way to do it. While I think it is the wrong move, golf is extremely volatile and anything can happen. Attacking the upper 9k range to the mid to high 7k range even if they are owned heavily could be unique as long as it doesn’t have a Scottie or JT in there. I will mention some guys below that best fall into the balanced build approach, but that is really the only way to “pivot” off of the studs above even if it is incredibly risky. I think one or both of these two end up in the optimal.
Chalk #2: JT Poston ($8,900)
The consistency of Poston since the end of the 2023 season has been insane. He is almost a lock to top 25 every single week and has multiple top 10s sprinkled in there as well. Even though he missed the cut here last year, he had a T23 the year prior and T11 the year before that. He checks the course history box, but for me the course fit numbers don’t really support playing him. He isn’t long or that strong off of the tee (outside of the top 50 in the field in both SG:OTT and Driving Distance) so with this course favoring very strong drivers he could be in trouble. DFS Hero is projecting him for over 20% ownership which is highest on the slate outside of JT and Scottie. There are definitely pros and cons with Poston that the field might not want to admit, but I gladly will. He is in a very similar spot to what Eric Cole was at the Farmer’s where he MC’d. Tread lightly with Poston this week.
Pivot: Wyndham Clark ($9,000)
When you have Poston and Benny An soaking up all the ownership in a specific range and the guy coming off of a career best round of 60 and winning the week prior is half the ownership, you almost have to give him a look. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 8% ownership which is much lower than a lot of guys in this range. He mashes the ball off of the tee, is aggressive at going for pins, has a strong Birdie or Better % and literally just won. What more is there to say? He might be volatile, but I will take the ownership discount on him this week over a lot of the guys around him even if some of the course stats don’t fit him. He finished T10 here last year and T36 in 2021 so the history is there. That is really what we want to see.
Chalk #3: Eric Cole ($8,500)
Just like Poston, Cole has been on a tear since the end of last season with plenty of top 20 finishes and even a few top 5s. Outside of the MC at the Farmers, he has been incredibly consistent with a very strong approach game and putting performances carrying him most of the way. The thing that has me slightly concerned is off of the tee he isn’t the greatest. You need to be a stronger of the ball to get around this course. Then you have a lot of water on the left side of the course. He is 168th on tour in left rough avoidance which could bring plenty of blowups into play. While I do think his consistency in all other facets of the game can carry him this week, the ownership projection being close to 15% has me worried once you factor in the driving issues. Others in the range are legit half the ownership with a similar upside.
Pivot: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400)
DFS Hero is projecting him for just 9% ownership which is a lot more tolerable. He has been great at Scottsdale with a T8 in 2022 and T23 in 2023. While he didn’t play too hot at Pebble Beach last week, I think that will just keep his ownership down even more. He is a great T2G, is 4th in the field in SG: Around the Green, and even though he isn’t the most accurate off the tee, he atleast missed right which is typically away from the water. I like where Hideki’s game is and I think he will be back to contending here soon. The inconsistencies are just the big thing he needs to iron out.
Chalk #4: Beau Hossler ($8,000)
I wanted to play this guy so bad coming into this week. He is 10th in my model with a strong SG:T2G game, strong around the green stats and is fairly accurate off of the tee. He also has been piling up strong finishes with another top 20 last week at Pebble Beach (T14). The only issue I am having is he is projected for nearly 18% ownership this week. The saving grace is his optimal rate is 25% making him still a strong leverage play so I will probably look past the high ownership and still play him. He fits this course and was T14 last season. Not going to try to talk you off of chalk Hossler here. Ride with him if you like!
Pivot: Si Woo Kim ($7,900)
The guy directly behind Hossler in the pricing AND my model (11th in the model) is Si Woo who is the epitome of a pin seeker who fits this course very well. He has been top 30 in each of the last 2 years at this tournament so there is some solid history. He is top 20 T2G and OTT in this field which is very strong for a guy of his price. I think my favorite thing about him is he is 2nd in the field in Going for Green %. I don’t want guys that are going to play it easy and try to grind out pars. I want birdie seekers and that is what Si Woo does. While it might blow up in my face, he is only being projected for 8% ownership and is coming off of a T14 as well at Pebble. The form is there and the upside is always strong with Si Woo. What more can you ask for?
Chalk #5: Kurt Kitayama ($7,200)
I do think Kitayama checks a lot of boxes this week for the type of guy you want when going this low in salary. He finished T23 here last year so the history is kind of there. He has been playing good golf recently with a T16, T29, T24 and T39 in his last 4 tournaments (all of which were fairly strong fields). He is strong OTT and has a pretty good approach game which is exactly what you want here. I just can’t get behind a 17% owned Kurt Kitayama when guys in this range are legit 2-6% owned. There is literally no reason for that at all so I will likely be fading him even if he looks like a great play on paper. He misses left at a lot so there is a chance he finds the water and if that happens a few times the first two days you might be sunk.
Pivot: Luke List ($7,100)
List might be one of my favorite plays on the entire slate, grading out as the 2nd best option in the model (yes 2nd for the entire field). His ownership is a touch high with DFS Hero projecting him for just 7% ownership. His optimal rate is close to 16% which makes him a strong leverage play as well. He mashes the ball off the tee and is 1st in the field in Going for the Green %. Similar to Si Woo, he might blow because he is 148th in Left Rough Tendency this season, but I will take my chances because his fit is incredible. The course history leaves a lot to be desired though with a MC last year, T53 the year prior and a T30 in 2021.
Other Golfers in Play
$9,000s: Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala
$8,000s: Byeong Hun An, Adam Scott, Corey Conners
$7,000s: Mark Hubbard, Kevin Yu, Adam Schenk, Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Svensson
$6,000s: KH Lee, Sam Ryder, Doug Ghim, Vince Whaley, Patton Kizzire, JJ Spaun, Sam Stevens, Matti Schmid, Tyler Duncan, Carl Yuan, Joel Dahmen, Callum Tarren (plenty of value if you want to go Scottie/JT as your top 2 golfers)
