PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Pebble Beach (2 course rotation)
Pebble Beach: 6,972 yards
Spy Glass: 7,041 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 80 golfers, 36 hole cut
Key Stats: Approach Proximity, SG: Approach, Putting on Small Greens, Close Range Putting, Scrambling from Sand
Weather: Definitely could come into play so keep an eye on wave advantages. The wind and rain are supposed to be strong and sporadic Thur/Fri which opens up for a serious AM/PM or PM/AM split for roster construction.
Breakdown:
Some of the smallest greens on the entire tour and the greens are so hard to putt on. Getting close to the pin on approach is really your only guarantee
Rough is barely rough. Just a little bit longer than the fairway so driving accuracy isn’t a big factor
Course History is also a sticky statistic here with guys that always play well, continuing to play well. However, the field strength is considerably higher so that needs to be factored in as well
The bunkers are also extremely tough to get out of which makes Sand Scrambling a top stat for me
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)
We have almost every top 100 golfer in the world here this week (outside of LIV golfers) and Scottie headlines that list. His start to the season has featured a win, a top 5 and a top 20 so the form is still there. This is a great track for him to continue that given his strong approach proximity numbers and SG:T2G stats. The only thing he can’t do is putt and if everyone is going to struggle at putting that just makes me think he is in the best spot of anyone. On the other hand though, with it being a bit closer to a birdie fest, maybe he will have to make those close putts that he typically misses which we can’t rely on. Even with so many big names, I think he can contend in any event. DFS Hero is projecting him for 24.7% ownership which is 3rd on the slate. Why I think he could be bad chalk is the price is so high that his optimal rate is quite low at just 17% and the putting concerns. You will want to get access to the $8,000 and up range which he makes it hard to get to.
Pivot: Viktor Hovland ($10,200)
He is sandwiched right between a ton of dudes that are seeing 20+% ownership while he is only being projected for around 17% which is quality leverage. His price is a bit cheaper while makes it easier to fit him in and have other talent around him. He finished 13th here last year and honestly it should have been a top 5 or 10 if he had just had a decent Sunday. That doesn’t even factor in his finishes as an amateur here where he finished top 20 in his early years and I believe won the US Amateur Championship at Pebble in 2018. He has strong approach numbers and can scramble very well. With an above average putter, I think he can be a top contender this week at a lower ownership than the guys around him.
Chalk #2: Xander Schauffele ($10,000)
He has 4 top 10s in his last 5 and is coming off of a great showing at the Farmer’s with a T9 finish. Xander is going to model well at just about every tournament and course so no surprise he is getting a ton of ownership this week. He is projected for 26% ownership by DFS Hero which is a little bit higher than the guys around him. Chalk at the top is a lot more tolerable and doesn’t bust at as high a rate as the cheaper chalk, so I am not going to try to talk you off of him. I think the only thing I can see to suggest fading is the last time he played here was in 2017 and he had a DNF (along with about 12 other golfers). That shouldn’t really matter though.
Pivot: Justin Thomas ($9,600)
A lot of people still have this notion that JT is washed up and a garbage golfer after his quite frankly terrible 2023 campaign and finishing outside of the FEDEX Cup playoffs. However, since then he has been on a real tear. He has 4 straight top 5s and it feels like he is on the cusp of a win. The thing for me is I think he ends up seeing a lower ownership that the projections suggest given he is sandwiched between Spieth who has some elite course history here and Cantlay who also has great history and is seeing a 20% ownership projection. Not to mention the slew of guys below in salary that are playing solid as well. He has a strong approach game that should help carry him to a solid finish this week.
Chalk #3: Ludvig Aberg ($9,000)
He passes every eye test for sure for what we are looking for in a young, up-and-coming golfer. He is elite off the tee and has plenty of top notch finishes over the last 6 or so months. Here is my problem… DFS Hero has him projected for close to 27% ownership and I get it. He is the squeaky new toy everyone wants to play with. However, the one spot he separates himself from the pack with, off of the tee, is something that is essentially not a factor this week. The average driving distance for this tournament is only like 280 yards which is bottom of the tour rotation. His approach numbers aren’t the greatest and essentially an average putter. There are guys up here in price that are far better course fits and have the history around here. I am not a fan of his this week, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a great golfer.
Pivot: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600)
I bounced back and forth between Fleetwood and Morikawa here, but to consider Morikawa a pivot at nearly the same ownership is not what I am going for with these articles. Fleetwood, however, is projected to be one of the lowest owned guys in the entire $8,000 range and it doesn’t add up to me. He is an excellent approach player, ranking 27th on tour last season. He is in great form despite not having played over on the PGA often. He has multiple top 10-15 finishes over the last couple of months with no MCs on the Euro Tour and DP World Tour. I think also factoring in he barely ever 3 putts is a big kicker this week which he only did 1.9% of the time last year (26th on tour). I think he can easily beat everyone in this range when he playing his A game so the ownership being this low is just too good to pass up.
Chalk #4: JT Poston ($7,900)
While he might not even be projected as the highest owned guy in this range, I am hearing way too much from different podcasts and breakdowns to believe he will end up being under 20% owned this week. The projection currently is 16%, but that will certainly rise. He hasn’t missed a cut in lord knows how long, he has top 20 finishes in 8 of the last 12 events. Even in this strong of a field, he still shines in the model given his strong SG:T2G and Putting stats. With it being a no cut event, he likely won’t let you down at this price by any means, but there are guys in this range that will be half the ownership with a better pedigree. He also hasn’t played here in the last 5 years (maybe ever… I don’t have those stats to look at). I want to like him, but will probably get away from him due to the ownership.
Pivot: Tom Kim ($8,000)
He isn’t playing the best golf right now which is probably why his ownership projection is so low. However, his approach numbers are elite even for this field and the big thing letting him down is the putter. He is hemorrhaging strokes on the greens right now, but maybe with the greens being tough everyone will regress in putting a bit. All he has to do is be a zero putter and he can probably contend every week. He is going to stick it with his irons and is extremely accurate off the tee. With Poston, Henley, Hossler, Benny An and Hojgaard all surrounding him, I think he gets almost no ownership in this range which feels criminal. He is bound to bounce back here soon.
Chalk #5: Eric Cole ($7,300)
He legit might come in as the highest owned guy on this slate and it makes sense. He is coming off of a missed cut at a course that did not fit him by any means. Now he is at a course that he has had success at, is a great fit for and prior to the Farmer’s was on a tear with tons of top 20 finishes. Russell Henley is also in the running with him in this range ownership wise, but I think that comes down given he hasn’t played in a few weeks even if it was a 4th place finish. Cole isn’t the most accurate off of the tee and is a decent approach guy, but nothing special. He has been a great putter which has carried him and the unpredictable nature of these greens has me concerned about guys that are doing a lot of their work on the greens. While statistically he does model well for this course, I think I might look elsewhere because the cheap chalk typically doesn’t get there (this year has been an anomaly with a lot of chalk getting there, but long term numbers say otherwise).
Pivot: Nick Taylor ($7,200)
Taylor is literally coming in at 1/3th the ownership projection of Cole, won here in 2020, was T14 in 2022 and 20th last year. The course history is elite for guys at this price and has pretty decent form coming into this one. While he missed the cut 2 weeks ago, he was actually playing well and melted down on the final couple of holes to miss on the number. Prior to that it was a 7th, 13th, 21st and a 52nd in his previous 4 starts. He models incredibly well with strong approach numbers and doesn’t 3 putt often. If he can put it all together here like he typically does, I see no reason he can’t have a strong finish and outpace a lot of the guys in this range.
Other Golfers in Play
$10,000s: Rory McIlroy
$9,000s: Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa
$8,000s: Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,000s: Beau Hossler, Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, Chris Kirk, Stephen Jaeger, Brendon Todd
$6,000s: Tom Hoge, Cam Davis, Taylor Moore, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power
