PGA Genesis Invitational Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Riviera Country Club
Distance: 7,322 yards
Par: 71
Field/Cut: 70 man field, 36 hole cut, top 50 and ties + within 10 shots of the lead
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Driving Distance, SG: Around the Green, Course History, Approach from 150+
Weather: Low 60s most days and no wind currently over 10 mph. Nothing crazy until Saturday which doesn’t effect anything for roster construction.
Breakdown:
Elevated event with a very strong field
Sticky course history that favors guys that are also in good form (18 of the last 22 winners were 35th or better in their previous start)
You will have very long approach shots so driving distance and deep approach accuracy will be key
Guys that can scramble around the green given the tough approach shots also do very well
Has to be able to shot shape with so many differing dog legs and odd undulation around the grounds
Absolute must to score on Holes 1 and 5 (Both Par 5s with incredibly high eagle rates)
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($11,500)
Once again, I think Scottie gets absolutely steamed up and comes in with big ownership. Almost everyone is going to see ownership with just 70 guys in the field and it being a virtually no cut event. With enough good talent and golfers in the mid to low 7s, it isn’t hard to make him fit in. However, the range you have to drop down to if you opt to go with him does negate a ton of good golfers so my prediction of him getting steamed up might not come true. His ownership projection is hovering right around 20% at the moment and has a close to 30% optimal rate. He is still very much in play and almost a lock for a top 10 with how he is playing right now. Him being chalky isn’t going to take me off of him this week.
Pivot: Balanced
A lot of people in these no cut events tend to go to stars and scrubs because the thought is “I am getting guarenteed points from everyone and I want the win equity at the top”. While that is true, that fits a lot more in birdie fest environments where the guys at the bottom are also going to be picking up birdies too. This is not an easy course to navigate so stars and scrubs has a legit chance of letting you down if those guys at the bottom fall apart, can’t shot shape and find a way to be one of the like 10 guys that miss the cut. You will be completely sunk over the weekend when all of these 6/6 lineups start lapping you. There are so many guys in the 8s and 9s that have elite course history, are playing great right now and model well. Fading multiple of them just to get a Scottie might be a mistake this week.
Chalk #2: Ludvig Aberg ($9,200)
I was really hoping I could get this guy at low(er) ownership this week, but it isn’t looking like that is going to be the case. DFS Hero is projecting him to be the highest owned guy on the entire slate at around 26% ownership. That is absolutely bonkers given this course has sticky course history (he has never played here). Well, the thing with Aberg is he fits this course like an absolute glove. He can drive it far and is great with his long irons from 150-175 where like 70% of approach shots are going to be coming from. His putter is starting to catch fire as well, making him borderline elite at all 3 levels. I would put serious money on him winning an elevated event in a stacked field with the next calendar year and this spot feels like an easy one to project him to do it at. He has back to back top 10s and is coming off of a 2nd place that easily could have been a win at Pebble had they finished the final 18. He checks literally every box… expect his ownership is through the roof. That is going to probably be a major factor for me, but if you don’t value ownership as highly as I do then I legit don’t have anything to talk you off of him other than he has never played at Riviera CC before.
Pivot: Jordan Spieth ($9,000)
Literally no one wants to play him even though he just picked up a T6 at Phoenix this past week and is someone that can be creative enough around here to make things happen. To go with that, In 3 of his last 4 tournaments he has a top 10. Yes, he missed the cut here last year, but prior to that had a T26 and a T15 in 2022 and 2021. His course history isn’t the greatest, but he is a savant around the greens and if he can do just anything with his irons, I think he can contend. He is legit the lowest owned guy in the 9s by almost 5% (his projection is 11% ownership and 2nd lowest is Homa at 16%) which feels criminal for a guy of his caliber. He doesn’t model the best because that iron play has been atrocious lately, but the rest of it falls into place well this week. Let’s just hope he can turn that part of his game around.
Chalk #3: Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
Everyone lines up to play this guy just about every week and lately it hasn’t been working for them. Only a T14 and a missed cut in his last two events is not something to be proud of. However, he has amazing course history here, models incredibly well given the ball striking metrics for him are borderline best in the field and he does enough around the greens and scrambling where he probably won’t fall apart. I could easily see this being the spot he just puts it all together and contends if not wins. He really struggles when the conditions get tough (that’s why he MC’d at the Farmers), but this week everything should be fairly tame. With everyone around him also seeing pretty sizeable ownership, fading him because of that seems a bit egregious. I have no issue with eating him as chalk this week once again even if he has burned me a few times before.
Pivot: Max Homa ($9,800)
Now this is a guy that is full blown burned almost half of the PGA DFS community over the last few weeks with a missed cut last week in Phoenix, a measly T66 at Pebble and then a string of top 15s that really aren’t that great considering at his price tag you need top 10s. I am going to disregard the last two because he has been screwed by the weather in those. This is probably the one place that Homa always does great at as well. He was 2nd last year at Riviera to Rahm, 10th in 2022, won here in 2021 and T5 in 2020 to really put him in the national spotlight. There are maybe 1 or 2 other guys in this field that you can even say half of that about better yet 4 straight top 10s with a win and a 2nd. He is still 5th in my model (which factors mostly last 36 rounds) despite 6 of those rounds being from the last two tournaments and are horrible stats at that. I am more than willing to go right back to him if the field doesn’t really want to.
Chalk #4: Adam Scott ($8,200)
I absorb plenty of content and I mean PLENTY while preparing myself for the upcoming tournaments. Not a single one of them have I finished without someone touting up Scott or full blown highlighting him as a great fit. They aren’t wrong though. He won here back in 2020, was 4th in 2022 and still made the cut here last year. He is coming into this one in impeccable form with a T8 last week and a T20 at Pebble. He models incredibly well considering he is long enough off of the tee and ball strikes very well. He is 1st in the field for me in 175-200 approach accuracy which is going to be a major factor this week. I wanted to play him badly, but when DFS Hero is projecting him for around 22% ownership and guys above and below him getting less than 10% ownership I feel almost obligated to fade him. This is a stacked field and those guys around him at single digit ownership are just as good of a golfer as he is. Any given week, they can pop for a top 5 finish. That is how they got into this tournament essentially. The numbers say play him, but the game says fade him so it I am kind of in a pickle on Scott this week.
Pivot: Tom Kim ($8,100)
It feels like people think Tom Kim is just trash now when in reality he just isn’t playing up to his full potential. He still has some solid finishes, but nothing crazy over the last few weeks which has his ownership at just 5% ownership projection this week. While he isn’t the longest off of the tee, he just does everything well enough to be in a good spot most weeks. This week he doesn’t model the best, but is still top 50 in every major category I am looking for and is top 25 in BoB, SG:P, Scrambling and T2G play. He made the cut in his first time here last season and hopefully can improve on that this week. To be honest, I would have suggested Cam Young or Wyndham Clark for this one, but they aren’t exactly ownership pivots when they are being projected for 15-18% ownership as well.
Chalk #5: Cam Davis ($7,200)
Any time that Davis is being projected as the 7s chalk play of the week, I am probably going to fade. He is coming into this one off of a T20 at Pebble which is actually pretty solid and is being projected for 13% ownership. He is in a similar boat as Scott where a lot of people are touting him up which will certainly inflate his ownership. He has pretty average finishes at this tournament over the last 3 years with no finishes inside in the top 40 over that span. He doesn’t even model well for me so I will 100% be fading him in this spot. The course history leaves a lot to be desired and the fit isn’t there. Pair that with high ownership is a big red flag.
Pivot: Corey Conners ($7,300)
This one could 100% come back to bite me in the rear because his putting and around the green game is atrocious at the moment. However, he is a great ball striker and is incredibly accurate so as long as he can be solid with the long irons he should be able to produce well. He has some solid finishes lately with multiple top 30s (even if we want top 20s at this price) and rarely ever has blow up rounds. The big issue with him is the putting keeps him from going low, but this tournament isn’t a birdie fest so are we really worried about that? If he can just keep shooting ~68s on the back of strong ball striking then finding that top 20 shouldn’t be too difficult. His ownership projection is only around 6% and him being just under Hideki will keep it there. Just beware he has awful course history here with 3 MCs and a 61st here over his last 4.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland
9,000s: Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas
8,000s: Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Cam Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark
7,000s: Will Zalatoris, JT Poston, Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama, Nick Taylor, Beau Hossler
6,000s: Emiliano Grillo, Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk, Luke List, Adam Svensson, Sam Ryder
