PGA Valspar Championship Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Innisbrook, Copperhead Course
Distance: 7,340 yards
Par: 71
Field/Cut: Full field, 36 hole cut, top 65 + ties
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Long Iron Efficiency, SG: Off the Tee (less than driver), Scrambling, Par 3 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy
Weather: This is a bit to process. So Thursday looks great for everyone. No rain and winds in the mid to low teens all day. Thursday on is where things get interesting. I would expect a Thursday delay just looking at the rain projections and extreme wind gusts. If that holds, there is going to likely be an advantage for the AM/PM wave golfers. They will get good conditions Thursday then won’t go out likely until things ease up for them and the grounds will be soft and receptive. They will certainly be able to control their long iron approach shots onto the green a lot easier. PM/AM guys might have to play a couple holes in the rain or wind before they suspend play on Friday.
Breakdown:
Extremely tough course that caters to golfers with great long iron play.
You have to be accurate off of the tee. The rough is brutal and will penalize you if you are off by too far with water in play on half the holes and a lot of bunkers.
Less than driver off of the tee is the usual play. Lowest Driver off of the tee course on the tour.
5 Par 3’s that all have an over par scoring average, so Par 3 scoring and Bogey Avoidance will be a key metric.
The course is scorable if you know where to hit the ball, but if you miss your mark you can get in a lot of trouble.
Model Rankings
Mostly L9 Months, Last 30 Rounds
Chalk #1: The $10,000+ Range - Spieth
So the sentiment this week is you need to have a very specific build: a $10,000+ golfer, 2 $8-9,000 golfers, 3 Punts. That has flattened the ownership of Xander, Burns and JT out pretty significantly. Xander is coming in with a projection at around 27% ownership with both Burns and JT at around 20-24%. My model favors Xander the most, but Burns isn’t too far behind and Justin Thomas is 34th. I think Xander is going to want to bounce back after the disappointing 2nd place finish this past weekend at the Players. My big fear is the accuracy off the tee isn’t the best and he doesn’t have the greatest Par 3 scoring. Other than that he checks just about every box. Burns is super volatile with similar concerns to Xander, but the Par 3 scoring is top 5 in the field. He also has great history around this place. As for JT, he either finishes top 15 or misses the cut this year with those missed cuts being absolute blow ups. However, when he missed the cut at the Genesis, he bounced back with a T12 in his next start. He also has two top 10s here in his last two starts (T13 in 2021 to add as well). I think all 3 of these guys have positives to look at this week, but if I am going to chase ownership on any of them it would be Burns. The course history here and Par 3 scoring really have my attention and outside of his last two Sunday rounds, he was playing like a top 10 golfer. Xander could have a “hangover” from last week and JT coming in with a MC and not modeling well are my big concerns.
Pivot: Jordan Spieth ($10,200)
This seems like the super obvious pivot up at the top. Spieth doesn’t look right with a MC, T30 and 70th in his last 3 starts. He is all the way down at 82nd in my model due to the driver really not being an asset for him and the approach game isn’t there. The only thing keeping him afloat is the putter is still there. However, he finished T3 here last year so there is some course history to fall back on. You need to be able to scramble here and we all know Spieth is magic around the greens. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 12% ownership which is half that of everyone above him. While I might not be going there (more because I don’t like his game coming in), he is the epitome of what we consider a pivot. I still like the guys above him and will be chasing that ownership because their game is in a much better place, but you can get a lot of leverage with Spieth this week.
Chalk #2: Brian Harman ($9,800)
Harman is coming into this tournament in great form with a T2 last week at the Players that should have been a win if he just birdied the two Par 5s on Sunday that literally everyone else birdied. His game is a great fit for this course with how accurate he is. The driver can be basically left in the bag which levels the playing field for him. He is a great putter, consistent at Par 3s and is very solid in approach as well so he checks all of the category boxes we want. While he did MC here at Innisbrook last year, he was T5 in 2022. The ownership projection is quite high at nearly 20% which is completely understandable, but there are other guys in the $9,000 range that are much lower. The flipside to that is they probably aren’t in as good of form or model as well. I still really like Harman so not much to worry about, but there are pivots that intrigue me.
Pivot: Cameron Young ($9,600)
I am starting to think I am just a sucker for Cam Young. He is in a bit of slump after starting the season very hot with back to back finishes outside of the top 35. The finishing positions don’t really tell the entire story. He is a great ball striker and the approach game has been great. He just hasn’t been that accurate off of the tee which can really hurt you here. However, he always seems to play tough golf courses well. Multiple major championship finishes inside the top 10 and this course models that of a major championship venue. The field strength isn’t too strong so maybe if he can just keep the ball in the short grass then he can easily contend this week. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 12% ownership which feels extremely low. I really think this could be the spot he breaks through and gets the win.
Chalk #3: Tony Finau ($9,300)
People are seeing that he is actually 1st on the entire tour, even over Scottie, in SG: Approach. With a heavy emphasis on approach this week, he is in a prime position to show out. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 16% ownership which is a touch higher than others in this range and I think it is on the name value. He is like the “break” in pricing where above him are quality golfers and below are just a tier down so a lot of the field will use him as a salary saver because we know he can win this. My big concerns come in his Par 3 scoring numbers and Good Drive %. You almost have to break even on the Par 3s this week which he typically is a loser at. You have to keep it in play which he can be a struggle for him at times. All in all, I think he has win equity which is what we are looking for, but I don’t think he has played here before so knowing if that win equity is translatable to a course like Innisbrook is tough to say. Just knowing the ownership, I will probably be off of him.
Pivot: Keith Mitchell ($8,900)
This guy really got me last week with a horrible weekend showing at the Players. He was doing well thru Friday then turned in back to back +4 rounds to finish DFL for those that made the cut. Regardless of that, he was playing really strong prior with 3 straight top 20s. Now that he is coming off of a “poor performance”, I think some of the field is getting cold feet. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 9% ownership which is around that of the other golfers in this range. For me, he is 2nd in the model due to the great ball striking and approach play he brings to the table. That alone should keep him live this week and at worst he should make the cut. He is top 25 in this field in Par 3 scoring as well which might have him vying for the win. I am going to look past last week and go right back to Mitchell who is at a great track to compliment his game.
Chalk #4: Doug Ghim ($8,400)
There is nothing sneaky about playing Doug Ghim anymore. With 5 straight top 20 finishes, he feels like such a safe play for the field. What has me intrigued the most is that he somehow is he is #1 in my entire model. He is accurate off of the tee, avoids bogeys, is 5th in the entire field in SG: Tee to Green and on top of all of that he scrambles very well. He has all the tools to be successful here and has a T27 here last year to back it up. I want to love him, but he is bound for a pull back performance. Law of averages applied heavily to guys like Ghim where you kind of expect a poor performance at some point. I have no clue what I will end up doing with him this week, but odds are I will be all in or all out on him. He passes every eye test and is in great form. I just don’t know if he can keep it up and this course being very tough could be the spot he comes apart.
Pivot: Adam Hadwin ($8,200)
He might be one of the most volatile golfers in this field, but when he gets it going he performs in a big way. Starting at just his history around Innisbrook, he has multiple MCs, but a T7 in 2022. His form coming into this one is also a bit hit or miss with a few MCs, but a T4 at the Genesis and a T6 at the American Express all in 2024. He is 40th in my model which isn’t great, but it is more he doesn’t grade out great in any category or horribly. He is just average across the board. I am hoping we see the upside from him here. His putting and Par 3 scoring are what should keep him alive for the weekend and he is a good enough ball striker to possibly vault him into contention. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 6% ownership which is the lowest in this range by a good distance. You can get big leverage with Hadwin here over playing a guy like Ghim who will be big time chalk or others like Rai/McNealy who are also seeing decent ownership projections
Chalk #5: Joel Dahmen ($6,800)
Buckle up for the bucket hat experience. It might just be Joel Dahmen week! He is coming off of a T11 at the Players which is an impressive result considering Sawgrass is a tough course and he only picked up 4 bogeys all week. The consistency to avoid those will be key this week and the field is expecting it to continue. He is projected for over 10% ownership which is a lot higher than guys in this range. The chalk punts only get there compared to the golfers around them at a 40% clip this year, so the reality is Dahmen might get you in trouble this week. However, with him modeling as the 9th best golfer in this field, I am super conflicted. Similar to Ghim, I will probably be all in or all out this week. He definitely fits the mold and has atleast made the cut here the last two years (T39 and T61)
Pivot: Chesson Hadley ($6,700)
I swear I play this guy every week and it looks like it is going to work out and he 3 putts for MC or falls out of it. He would talked about way more if he could just figure out the yips on the putting surface and was a little bit more consistent in approach. He is 2nd in Par 3 scoring, 2nd in bogey avoidance and 13th in Good Drive % in the field this week. You would think that he could take that and translate it to this course. He might be a better golfer now, but he has 3 straight MCs here at Innisbrook which has me puzzled. He has some solid finishes in the last 2 months with a T25 at the Farmers, T24 at Mexico and T35 at the Cognizant. My hope is that he can figure out the putting woes and the rest of his game will fall into place for a strong finish. He is only seeing 2% ownership projection which instantly will make you different. Fingers crossed I finally get him right with the other pieces as well!
Other Golfers in Play
9,000s: Nick Taylor
8,000s: Christian Bezuidenhout, Keegan Bradley, Aaron Rai,
7,000s: Taylor Moore, Andrew Putnam, Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, Daniel Berger, Akshay Bhatia, Ryo Hisatsune
6,000s: Davis Thompson, Kevin Yu, Andrew Novak, Ben Silverman, Alexander Bjork, Greyson Sigg, Chris Gotterup
5,000s: Parker Coody, Justin Lower, Kevin Roy, Richard Hoey
