PGA The Players Championship Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Distance: 7,275 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 144 golfers, 36 hole cut, top 65 and ties
Key Stats: SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, Recent Form, Proximity from 125-175 yards, Putting on fast greens, Birdie or Better %, Bogey Avoidance
Weather: Early look is that Thursday weather is pretty tame and Friday we get winds at around 10-20 mph all day. With a lot of the past winners coming from the AM/PM wave, I am going to say they have a slight advantage.
Breakdown:
Honestly one of the true tests where you need every part of your game to click. You can’t be elite at just one thing and get away with it here.
Not much sticky course history. Most everyone in the field has a MC here or has never player here. Prior to Scotties win he had an MC and a 50th or worse. Similar for Rory back in the day. Therefore, value recent form the most.
Water on literally every hole and the best way to get good angles to the green is to drive it right at the water. Brings a lot of risk into play.
You need to keep it in the fairways because this rough is punishing. Almost every hole, if you hit it into the rough, is atleast a 0.33 stroke penalty for SG.
Big names have been winners since they moved this to March (Scottie, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory), so valuing win equity will also be important. I wouldn’t expect a long shot here at all to win.
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($12,800)
There really isn’t much you can say to knock him other than his putting woes. The thing is he maybe… just maybe might have fixed a portion of that last week with the putter change. He took Rory’s advice and it worked out. He is top 1st or top 5 in about every major strokes gained category. There are guys in the lower $6,000 if not $5,000 range that are actually viable this week and playing well. Even with Scottie’s ownership projection being close to 30%, I am still going there and will not be trying to talk you off of him. If you can get there I see no reason not to. The only thing I don’t love is he is in the PM/AM wave which hasn’t been the typical wave to target and this week I like the AM/PM wave advantage more. Even with that, he will still likely overcome that and level the playing field come the weekend.
Pivot: Xander Schauffele ($11,300)
Outside of a terrible Saturday round at the API, he has been on a heater lately. T4 at the Genesis, T9 at the Farmers, T3 at the American Express and T10 at the Sentry are strong finishes this season and only one poor performance at Pebble which had some very weird weather splits that he didn’t get on the right end of. He is #2 in my model and between Scottie above and Rory below, his ownership isn’t going to be crazy high. Yeah it might be around 12-15%, but that is extremely tolerable. He falls into the AM/PM wave that I think has a slight advantage and finished T19 here last year. I think he can take it to the next step and elevate his game here to possibly claim the biggest purse of the year.
Chalk #2: Justin Thomas ($10,600)
Similar to Xander, outside of two bad rounds he has been electric to start 2024 with top 15s in every tournament except for one MC. His irons and ball striking are just incredible which should leave him a lot of close putts here. He is a past winner at this course in 2021 with multiple other strong finishes. My biggest fear though is his driving accuracy woes could really catch up to him here with how much water is in play. All it takes is one blow up and you can be cooked here which JT isn’t immune to. He isn’t even in the top 45 of my model rankings whereas no one else in the $10,000+ range is outside of the top 20. That really scares me given DFS Hero is projecting him for around 18% ownership. People might not like him, but they sure like to play him. Give me a lot of other guys around him at lower ownership.
Pivot: Viktor Hovland ($10,100)
While I don’t agree with how Hovland is handling his swing changes, he is still a quality golfer and the field just doesn’t want to click him. I totally understand it given his form recently has been terrible, he completely went back to sucking around the greens and his irons just haven’t been what we want. However, he isn’t playing so bad to warrant his ownership projection being sub 10%. A couple of top 20 finishes this season and his history around this place has been great. In his last two Players Championship starts, he has finished T3 and T9. That is a lot better than others. I do like other guys around Vik as well, but their ownership doesn’t really warrant calling them a “pivot” (like Cantlay, Willy Z and Hideki). He is still 6th in my model so writing him off because he hasn’t quite figured out his new swing feels wrong.
Chalk #3: Will Zalatoris ($9,900)
The entire $9,000 range is really getting ownership, but with how Willy has been playing he leads the pack. He is trending in the right direction with top 15 finishes in each of the last 3 tournaments with a top 5 at both the Genesis and API last week. His game feels like it should fit Sawgrass well with how well he ball strikes. Water is always going to be a concern here for Willy given he isn’t the most accurate off of the tee, but that didn’t seem to be an issue last week. He isn’t in the preferred wave which sucks, but he is the type of guy that can easily overcome that. Like Scottie, there isn’t much that will get me to talk you off of him so roll him out there with confidence.
Pivot: Max Homa ($9,600)
First of all, I think people have a notion that he isn’t playing well right now but that is more because he had a poor Cali swing which is usually where he thrives. Since heading back to the east coast, he has a T16 at the Genesis and a T8 last week at the API. Those are perfectly acceptable finishes if you ask me. DFS Hero is projecting him for 11% ownership which isn’t that much higher or lower than most in this range. He was T6 here last year and T13 in 2022 so there is some course history. Similar to a lot of guys this week, as long as he can keep it out of the water he should be just fine. He has a lot going for him right now, his game is trending in the right way and he gives you some decent leverage over the $9,000 range so sign me up.
Chalk #4: Byeong-Hun An ($8,100)
There is nothing sneaky or quiet about what Benny An has done this season by any stretch. People are starting to recognize that he is a great golfer and is being slightly disrespected in pricing. He started the year with two top 5s at the Sentry and Sony. He is coming into this one with a T16, T21 and T8 last week at the API. There are two major statistics that I am looking at this week that really vault him up the board and that is SG: Off the Tee and Birdie or Better. This could be a great spot for him given how strong off of the tee you have to be and with weather not being much of a factor you will have to get birdies. What concerns me is his approach numbers aren’t the best which on these tiered greens could become a problem. Also he isn’t a great putter as is so if you aren’t going to hit the right tiers on approach then putting is going to be very difficult. That could sink him this week for sure. Also being 162nd on tour, not just in this field, could pose a few issues. I am going to look elsewhere for guys that model better and are lower in ownership.
Pivot: Corey Conners ($8,300)
If this guy could putt he would probably be a top 15 golfer, but that is sorely not the case. He has great approach numbers, ranking 5th in this field in SG: Approach, and he is 2nd in SG: Ball Striking. He had a respectable T18 finish last week at the API which was a loaded field and if it weren’t for a poor Sunday he probably could have finished top 10. Yes he missed the cut here last season, but almost everyone in the field has a MC here with how volatile it is. In 2022 he finished T26 and in 2021 he finished 7th here so he can pull out a solid finish at this course. His game is rounding into form and he is due for a really strong finish. Can it be this week is the big question, but I like him a lot regardless.
Chalk #5: Tom Hoge ($7,800)
He is coming into this one with the highest projected ownership for anyone under $8,000 at 12%. He has a 28% optimal rate based on the DFS Hero data and that is mostly on the back of great form recently. His last 5 tournaments have featured no MCs with a T6, T17, 8th, T28 and T12 in that order. For this price, an average finish of T15 over his last 5 is extremely respectable and the field is wanting a piece of it. The concerns for me are off off the tee, distance and accuracy, he isn’t the best. While anyone in the field, even the best OTT, can blow up, the guys that are poor in that category give me a lot more fright. Other than that, he is top 3 in the field in approach right now and doing enough with his putter to not fall out of it. He feels like a classic “makes the cut, finishes towards the bottom” type of play which might not get you what you want this week. The rug is going to get pulled on Hoge soon and I don’t want to be there when it does.
Pivot: Keith Mitchell ($7,500)
Keith Mitchell is the complete opposite of Hoge. He is great off of the tee, like top 10 in the field great. His struggles rely on approach, but I feel confident that he atleast keeps it out of the water compared to Hoge and others. He is only drawing around 8% ownership which actually could get steamed up because the industry is talking him up quite a bit in the betting markets. He picked up a T13 in 2022 and T35 in 2023 so there is some decent history. He also comes into this week with 3 straight top 20s, including a T9 last week at the API. I really like his form and what the driver can do for him this week. Just have to cross our fingers and hope he keeps his ball clean through Friday to make the cut.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay
9,000s: Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, Cam Young
8,000s: Sahith Theegala, Russell Henley, Tony Finau
7,000s: Brian Harman, Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, Emiliano Grillo, Erik Van Rooyen, Stephan Jaeger, Alex Noren
6,000s: Doug Ghim, Beau Hossler, Billy Horschel, Austin Eckroat, Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover, Akshay Bhatia, Davis Thompson, Taylor Pendrith
5,000s: Chesson Hadley, Sam Ryder, Carson Young, Greyson Sigg, Alex Smalley, Tyler Duncan
