PGA Houston Open Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Memorial Park
Distance: 7,435 yards
Par: 70
Field/Cut: Full field, 36 hole cut, top 65 + ties
Key Stats: Long Iron Efficiency, Driving Distance, Apex Height, SG: Around the Green
Weather: There isn’t any rain in the forecast for Thursday/Friday, but the PM wave will have up to 20 mph gusts on Friday whereas Thursday the wind is around 8-12 mph all day. Slight edge to the PM/AM wave stack, but nothing more than 0.5-1 shot difference.
Breakdown:
You can smash it off of the tee, spray it where ever and still likely be fine
Almost 80% of all tee shots are driver, so Driving Distance is a key factor this week
This is a very long course and only a Par 70 so long irons will be used into the green on almost every hole. You need to be accurate with those clubs
I have read numerous places that Apex Height is a sticky stat here for guys that finish in the top 10. Factor that in slightly if you are modeling
Even with large greens, you will find yourself settling for awkward shots around the green pretty often, so scrambling is key
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($13,000)
Without fail, Scottie almost always comes in as the highest owned golfer and lives up to the hype. We might be witnessing a mini version of the dominance Tiger showcased in the early 2000s. I don’t care about ownership or projections at all when it comes to Scottie. You just play him if you can. However, if there was ever a week to maybe think twice about it this would be the one. He is a staggering $2,100 more expensive than the 2nd highest priced option (Clark) which is a massive difference. Think of it this way. You can go Scottie and someone like Gotterup OR Clark and Doug Ghim or Horschel. The difference in those two players is substantial in my opinion. I am still going to get above the field on Scottie’s projected ownership of 36%, but either direction you go I think can be justified.
Pivot: Sahith Theegala ($10,300)
I would recommend the entire $10,000+ range as a pivot off of Scottie, but Wyndham is seeing over 20% ownership as well so he is barely a pivot. I think most everyone that fades Scottie is immediately going to play Clark whose form is impeccable as well. I think a lot of people will see Sahith as overpriced being more expensive than Willy Z and Finau. However, the fail to realize how well he is playing currently. In his last 5 events he is T37, T20, T9, T6 and 5th with all of those being elevated events against the best talent. That is right up there with the best and probably 3rd behind Scottie and Clark in this field. His price is 100% justified. This course should fit him very well and he does model decently (23rd). I think he is really trending in the right direction and his ownership projection only being 16% seems very low. Hopefully he can keep the strong run of form going and improve on his T22 from this tournament last year into a top 10 or even top 5 finish.
Chalk #2: The entire $9,000 range
Everyone in this range has an ownership projection over 10% but no higher than 14%. I think all of them you could make the argument for playing. I still like Finau the most with his SG: Approach numbers being so strong and his history at this tournament is immense. The model loves Mitchell, Noren and Si Woo. Mitchell can’t find a way to not fall apart on Sunday. I always love him, play him and he lets me down when it matters most. I don’t know if I can keep doing it. Noren looks good and has top 20s in his last two starts. Pair that with him finishing T4 here last year makes me like him a lot. Si Woo I never get right, but he is coming off of a T6 and has great approach numbers. I could see him doing very well here. The one that stands out for the wrong reasons is Jason Day. He models poorly with his long irons and approach game in general being quite bad. He did have a T16 here last year which is solid. I just don’t love where his game has been at the last two weeks after thinking he was starting to jump into form.
Pivot: Tom Hoge ($9,000)
He is the only guy in the $9,000 range that is projecting for lower than 10% ownership. That is baffling to me considering he was on fire prior to the Players and his T54 there must have ran everyone off. He is 11th in my model due to the stellar approach numbers. The only problem he has is he doesn’t drive it far. That might hold him back, but he makes up for that with great long iron accuracy which regresses him back to above average for the field. I am going to go right back to him in this spot if no one wants to play him. He has actually been producing and gives you great leverage over the field. I will take that all day.
Chalk #3: Stephen Jaeger ($8,900)
I almost lumped him in with the $9,000 range because his best buy pricing has him incredibly close anyways and the ownership projection is right there with them. He is 3rd in my model because his Tee to Green numbers are fantastic and he checks the Apex Height box. Other than that, I am a bit concerned. He has some pretty poor performances the last few weeks with two MCs and a T44 which at this price won’t cut it. In those MCs, he missed on the number which is a tough pill to swallow. I think what you are hoping for is he can improve on his T9 he had here last year which is certainly possible with how weak this field is. I just don’t think I like him that much at this price and close to 15% ownership projection. His irons from 200+ aren’t really the best, but other than that he is okay. I just fear he might have lost his game a touch.
Pivot: Billy Horschel ($8,300)
I think what is keeping his ownership projection down is the driving distance statistic is just not strong for him. He doesn’t hit it too far, but his 175-200 yard approach proximity numbers are great for this field, he scrambles very well and he is atleast top 30 in SG: Approach for this field. Pair those things with the fact he has two top 12s in his last 3 tournament and we could be looking at a diamond in the rough. He is overall 32nd in my model without 10% of the model being factored in (SG: Putting at Memorial Park). He could be even higher all things considered. Let’s hope he carries the strong run of form into this one with another top 10.
Chalk #4: Jake Knapp ($8,000)
The sentiment around him this week is he hits it far and inaccurate, but can still get away with it. This course allows you to do that so from tee to green, Knapp should be elite this week. His approach numbers are great as well to further lock in that narrative. He is 25th in my model and that is without 20% of the model factored in. That is actually very impressive. Since his win, he has yet to miss a cut and has a T4 in there as well. With this being a weaker field event, I see no reason he can’t fall back on what he is good at and contend. I love him this week and will probably be overlooking the 14% ownership projection and I see him getting steamed up even more. He just checks all of the boxes (except course history; he hasn’t played here before).
Pivot: Mackenzie Hughes ($7,800)
Come the start of the tournament, this might end up not even being a pivot. I have heard his name a few times around the industry, but DFS Hero is only projecting him for 7% ownership. He is coming off of a T3 last week at the Valspar and finished T16 here last year. That alone will boost his ownership up a little bit. He models fairly well for me mostly on the back of strong SG: Total, SG: Putting and Apex Height stats. I think he should be able to carry that strong performance from last week into this one quite well. Just take that “low ownership projection” with a grain of salt because I won’t be surprised when it is around 10-12%.
Chalk #5: Andrew Novak ($6,900)
Our chalk punt of the week has to be Novak who is projected for 10% ownership which is in some cases a whole 5-8x that of the guys around him. I kind of understand given he bounced back for another top 20 after a MC. All of this after having 3 straight top 10s at Mexico, Phoenix and the Cognizant. He models well, not just for me, projects well and has the finishes to back it up. I think people just view him as underpriced and are jumping on it. I would have been if he was a little bit lower owned, but you have guys like Dahmen, Ryder and Smalley around him who are playing just as well. Dahmen’s ownership is right there with Novak so I wouldn’t consider him a pivot, but the others are all well under 8% owned and have a similar upside if everything clicks for them. Anyone this low at that ownership projection is a no for me. It fails more often than not compared to the golfers around them.
Pivot: Alex Smalley ($6,800)
Smalley is coming in at 1/4th the ownership projection compared to Novak, models better than him and finished T4 here last year to back everything up. That right there checks a lot of boxes for me. He is 12th in my model on the back of fairly strong Tee to Green numbers, especially for this price range. Being top 30 in the field all way down here is actually impressive. If he can putt like he did here last year once again, I truly feel he can contend again. Beating Scottie is never going to be easy, but he doesn’t need to do that as your 5-6th guy in. He just needs a respectable performance and to beat the guys around him which he certainly can. Here is the hold up… he has 5 straight MCs. Yeah that is disgusting, but maybe he just needs a place that he is comfortable at to prop him up. This could backfire for me, but I want to see what happens.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Wyndham Clark
9,000s: Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell
8,000s: Aaron Rai
7,000s: Ben Griffin, Luke List, Davis Thompson, Joel Dahmen, Mark Hubbard
6,000s: Sam Ryder, Scott Stallings, Joseph Bramlett, Sam Stevens, Carl Yuan, Gary Woodland, Michael Kim
5,000s: Robby Shelton, JJ Spaun, Parker Coody, Harry Hall, Patton Kizzire, Tyson Alexander
