PGA Valero Texas Open Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: TPC San Antonio
Distance: 7.438 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: Full Field, 36 hole cut, top 65 + ties
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Driving Distance, Par 5 scoring, Going for Green %, SG: Putting
Weather: Rain will be a non-factor Thursday and Friday, but wind might be. There is significantly more wind in the PM on Friday which lends itself to a PM/AM split advantage. Might not be much, but will be about 0.5-1 stroke easier for that wave.
Breakdown:
Honestly, a well rounded golfer is the recipe for contention this week
You need to be longer off the tee, but accuracy is still important with thinner fairways than we have had lately
Approach is always going to be important, but TPC San Antonio is the 7th toughest course to gain in approach at (Ron Klos)
Very tough Par 5s, so scoring on those holes will be crucial
Strong putters have popped in the past, but not every year. Therefore I think SG: Putting will have some importance
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600) and Ludvig Aberg ($10,500)
Both of these guys are showing up in the DFS Hero model at #1 and #2 in ownership projections and I think it is for good reason. Hideki has quietly been having a great season with top 15s in each of his last 3 events with a come from behind win at the Genesis. He was T15 here last year in a little bit easier of a field, but that is more than enough to say there is some course history here. As for Ludvig, he is just the darling on tour right now and people are always wanting to play him. He models incredibly well with how his game shapes up and I the recent results back that up. He has 5 straight top 25s with 8th place at the Players as his most recent and multiple other top 10s in there as well. Both of these guys offer more than $1,500 in savings off of Rory and are arguably in better form right now. It makes complete sense as to why they are beating him in ownership and I totally agree with it. They will be where I am likely going this week at the top, so I won’t be saying anything to talk you off of them. At the end of the day, they are seeing barely over 20% ownership which is fairly tame. Rory isn’t too far behind them either.
Pivot: Collin Morikawa ($10,100)
On a course that stresses approach shots highly, I am shocked that Morikawa isn’t getting more love. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 11% ownership which is incredibly low for this range. The recent form and results aren’t the best, but he has been playing in some great fields and the stats say he is trending. His approach play is still top notch and the birdie or better % is still strong. He just can’t seem to find it putting. This would be a great spot for him to find the form leading into the Masters which is what everyone here is really trying to do. When it is all said and done, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Morikawa won or was in contention most of the weekend just firing at pins the whole time.
Chalk #2: Corey Conners ($9,400)
It seems obvious as to why Conners is popping in the ownership this week… he won here last year. To pair with that he has back to back top 20 finishes at the Players and API which has everyone rushing to play him. He is 5th in my model and the only thing holding him back is his putting which that can be the case for a ton of golfers in general. Honestly, I don’t see anything in his game that would make me want to go against the grain with Conners other than the fact that he is being projected for 20% ownership. If you want to play him and get different elsewhere go right ahead. That won’t be a tough thing to do.
Pivot: Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,700)
This is just a fact. Matt Fitzpatrick is not a “$300 better” golfer than Conners. If he wasn’t so hit or miss this season he would probably be closer to Deki in pricing than some of these guys around him. He found something at the Players with the 5th place finish which is very nice to see following multiple bad MCs to start the season. In this field alone, he is 1st in Par 5 scoring which will be important and top 5 in both BoB% and GFG% which give me a lot of confidence that he can be a big player this week. His ownership projection is only around 12% which feels incredibly low for a guy of his stature and prowess. I see no reason he can’t contend this week. There are a lot of things that he was struggling with that he seemed to have found last week. Let’s just hope he doesn’t follow this current trend of solid finish, MC, solid finish, MC and once again… MC this week.
Chalk #3: Alex Noren ($8,700)
I am not a fan of playing this guy at high ownership which is what he is being projected for this week. DFS Hero has him for 19% ownership which is in some cases double that of the guys around him. To give him credit, he is playing great golf with top 20s in each of the last 3 tournaments and he hasn’t missed a cut this season. That is about as safe as it gets. He is 3rd in my model so in general I do have some interest in him. I just don’t like playing him when he is this high owned. I think there are better golfers around him in price much lower owned and actually have some win equity. He always feels like the type of guy that shows up at the top of the leaderboard at some point but never breaks for a top 5. Just plays for the good finish, not great finish. Play him at your own risk, but I just don’t see a lot of win equity for him.
Pivot: Brian Harman ($8,600)
Here is the win equity guy. Harman is the 8th best golfer in the world, not just this field and is priced in 13th just because of one bad showing last week. Prior to that he was 2nd at the Players and 12th at the API which is very strong consider they are elevated events. The MC at the Valspar has to have the field coming off of him because his ownership projection is only 11%. Like what are we doing? He shows up when he really needs to which would be this week leading into the Masters and the field strength does rival that of an elevated event in some fashion. He is 21st in my model which isn’t the greatest, but he putts well, hits his irons well and has a good BoB% to keep him in contention this week. What more can you ask for?
Chalk #4: Christian Bezuidenhout ($7,900)
The South African seems to have found something after changing his swing coach with a T9 at the Valspar and T13 at the Players as his last two finishes. He doesn’t model the best for me, but he is 2nd in this field in approach which is saying a lot and 3rd and SG: Total. If he can just hammer those two things again this week then he is for sure going to contend. At this price, you really can’t go wrong. I think he is being underpriced significantly for how his season has gone. However, he is being projected for close to 16% ownership which is higher than a lot of the guys around him. I don’t really have much to try to talk you off of him with, but there are some names around him, one of which I am about to peg as his pivot, that might have a bit more win equity than him.
Pivot: Tom Kim ($8,100)
Same with Kim as it was for Harman. What are we doing here? DFS Hero is projecting him for a measly 5% ownership this week. He is 21st in the OWGR! Yes his finishes as of late haven’t been the best, but they were in elevated events and his MC last week was due to illness not an injury or anything. He has some decent approach stats for this field and is top 15 in Par 5 scoring and GFG%. Pair that with him being 16th in this field in Birdie or Better and I think he could be a contender this week if he puts it all together. He is a young golfer and will figure it out, but to have a guy that has 2 wins before his 21st birthday at just 5% ownership is criminal.
Chalk #5: Maverick McNealy ($7,400)
Following an injury riddled season last year, Mav has really bounced back this year with just 1 MC this season and in his last 5 he has 3 top 15 finishes. The field is clearly aware of this and it is showcased in his ownership projection being close to 13% this week. He really didn’t do that well last week with just a T45 at the Valspar, but the game is certainly trending in the right direction. I just don’t like to play the chalk down here in this price range. There are guys at 2-5% ownership around him that are playing just as well as he is. What scares me the most is he is not even in the top 120 for this field in SG: Approach which will be a major factor this week. I would likely look elsewhere.
Pivot: Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400)
EVR is 2nd in my model this week… that is saying a lot. He did MC in his last start, but prior to that had a T25 at the API, T2 at the Cognizant and T8 at Mexico. The only thing he is outside the top 30 in my model is Good Drive %. He is top 5 in multiple different categories including BoB%, Par 5 scoring and is top 20 in SG: Approach and SG: Total. If he can shake off the poor finish last week and look forward, I think he can certainly be a good play this week. Coming in 61st in the OWGR this week when top 50 make it into the Masters could really have him trying to push for a great finish to get into that field.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Rory McIlroy
9,000s: Max Homa, Byeong Hun An
8,000s: Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, Harris English, Russell Henley
7,000s: Aaron Rai, Akshay Bhatia, Keith Mitchell, Austin Eckroat, Victor Perez,
6,000s: Doug Ghim, Davis Thompson, Max Greyserman, Andrew Novak, Nate Lashley, Jimmy Stanger, Chandler Phillips
5,000s: Carson Young, Kevin Dougherty, Peter Kuest
