PGA The Masters Chalk and Pivot Report
Maybe the most important milestone in the PGA season is here. The LIV tour and the PGA come back together at one of the most iconic courses on the planet… Augusta National. Yes, it is Master’s week! One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Augusta National
Distance: 7,555 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 88 golfers, 36 hole cut, top 50 + ties
Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Short Game, Course History, Total Driving, Putting on Fast Greens, Apex Height
Weather: Ohhhh boy. So we are seeing substantial rain and wind gusts almost all of Thursday and is not much better Friday that could end up pushing tee times and messing the entire wave split significantly. To combat this, I think stacking both sides in your lineups is smart. Have some AM/PM stacks and some PM/AM stacks. While one group might crap out, it is likely more than 50% of your lineups were to crap out anyways. Definitely keep a eye on weather all the way up to Thursday morning because things could change.
Breakdown:
One of the stickiest course history out there
2nd shot course so Approach game will be favored significantly over any other strokes gained metric
The green complex’s are very tricky to figure out, so short game will also be a major factor
Distance over accuracy off of the tee, but if you can do both that will be a big advantage
Typically only the “studs” win, but guys further down the board can still contend. Keep that in mind for betting more than DFS
First timers typically have some struggles
The greens themselves are insanely fast with a lot of undulations. Putters that are strong on fast greens will have a significant advantage
If you can stick your approaches with a high Apex Height, you will have a big advantage as well
**I am not going to be doing a model this week because the data website I use doesn’t account for LIV golf strokes gained data. It will skew the model significantly
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($12,100)
He is the best golfer on the planet currently and I don’t think there is any denying that. He has two wins and a 2nd (could have easily been a win if he just hits a 6 foot putt) in his last 3 events and now gets to go back to a place he has won at, contended at and really has a good feel for. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 34% ownership which is actually fairly tame compared to some of the other tournaments he has been in recently. I think that is due to the fact there isn’t a $5,000 range this week, but there are a few respectable guys in the $6,000 range. You can really find good golfers from the bottom to the top this week so it all comes down to if you think Scottie can win this week. Most tournaments you really are gauging playing him based on the guys right around him in pricing because only a couple golfers have actual win equity in those spots. This week there are genuinely, I think, 10-15 guys that truly could go out and win this. There is a bit more risk involved when you have to spend an extra $1,000 or more on Scottie when there are guys much cheaper that all have strong upside. I actually think I will be under the field on him because regardless of course history, if you land your approach in the wrong spot even slightly, hitting putts will be very difficult. I just don’t know if his putter is quite there.
Pivot: Jon Rahm ($11,200)
I really think my data source is wrong, but Jon Rahm having a 10% ownership projection feels criminally low for how good of a golfer he is. He has the same course history that many of the other golfers in the field have, but his fault is he is on LIV. Since joining LIV he has not finished outside of the top 10 once in 5 events and with the strength of field in those contests honestly being stronger than most PGA events, I think it holds some merit. The reigning green jacket holder is playing great golf and hits on just about every metric you want for a contender at Augusta. While winning back to back times at any venue is difficult, Rahm has the skillset to do it and at this ownership is a great bet as leverage off of the Scottie chalk.
Chalk #2: Xander Schauffele ($9,900)
Coming fresh off of a disappointing 2nd place finish at the Players, I think Xander will be hungry to avenge that blown 54 hold lead and push for his first major. The rest of the field must also be thinking this because his ownership projection is right up there with Scottie at 24%. Personally, he does check the boxes for course history and if I had a model very well could be 1st. For Strokes Gained data over the last 6 months (only PGA golfers), he is the only one that is top 15 in 7 of the 8 categories. Putting is the only spot he lacks in. I really don’t see any reason not to play him other than maybe his true win equity isn’t quite up there with others in the $9,000+ range. He is always good for a top 5 or 10, but actually winning he hasn’t been his strong suit.
Pivot: Brooks Koepka ($10,200)
While I am not fully convinced that this is the right play, he is the text book definition of a pivot. While Xander is coming in with a well over 20% ownership projection, Koepka is under 10% and, just like Rahm, is mostly due to the LIV bias. Of anyone up towards the top, he is by far the lowest owned. I think another factor would have to be he is not in good form either. He started out strong at LIV Mayakoba with a T5, but doesn’t have a top 10 since and his last start (this past week) was a pitiful T45 which is almost dead last. Going into Augusta with back to back 5 over rounds at a resort course is honestly terrible. Regardless, he has never been one to care for anything other than majors. I am pretty confident he could come into this one with 5 straight MCs and still put up a strong finish. That is just how he rolls. I’m not afraid to play him even in poor form. His form is major form and last year he was incredible in those tournaments. Let’s just hope he can keep the trend going. Can’t forget to mention he was T2 just behind Rahm last year and had the 54 hole lead going into Sunday.
Chalk #3: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)
The last guy being projected for over 20% ownership is the 2021 Masters Champ Hideki Matsuyama. I don’t think there is anything quiet about his season so far. Since Phoenix at the beginning of February, he has a win at the Genesis, 12th at the API and top 10s at both the Players and Valero last week. He has elite form and course history which is a big plus for this week. Along with that, he is top 10 in this field in all of the strokes gained metrics outside of off the tee and putting. That is extremely impressive, but it doesn’t factor in the 13 LIV golfers here this week. I think what draws people in the most is among this field, he is 3rd in course history, 5th in approach and 1st in SG: Around the Green. He will know how to navigate around here, if he gets in a bind he will be able to get out of it and should be close to the pin on approach. What more can you ask for. Even as a chalk option, I don’t have anything to drive you off of him.
Pivot: Will Zalatoris ($9,200)
His last two finishes leave a lot to be desired, but prior to that he had back to back top 5 finishes at the API (T4) and Genesis (T2) (Riviera is a high comp course to Augusta). He didn’t play last year due to the injury, but in 2022 was T6 at Augusta and 2021 was solo 2nd behind Deki. He is 5th in my model with the only thing holding him back being Par 4 scoring average because these are the hardest par 4’s on the planet arguably. With DFS Hero projecting him for just 14% ownership, I can’t help but go back to him even after some poor performances. He is a big game hunter and is almost always live to top 10 at majors. The track record stands for itself. He is just far too low owned for the upside he provides.
Chalk #4: Tony Finau ($8,600)
I was really hoping Finau would fly under the radar this week but that is sadly not the case at all. He is being projected for 18% ownership which is the highest of anyone in the $8,000 range. It has to be the fact that he is coming off of a T2 at Houston and when people thing Augusta they think approach is key. Finau is 2nd in this field in SG: Approach which is very telling. He has made the cut at every attempt with 3 top 10s in 5 attempts. He is 4th overall in my model with approach carrying him, but the strong around the green game and driving distance are also in his favor. I think the only thing I don’t like is there are a few golfers around him at far lower ownership that could be perceived as better than him. They just play on a different tour…
Pivot: Justin Thomas ($8,700)
Has he been bad lately yes… however, it is more due to the fact his putter is absolutely broken right now. Maybe the change in caddy might be just what he needs to fix that part of his game. It can’t hurt. Even though he is coming off of a MC at Augusta last year and a T64 at Valspar, his Master’s history is elite with top 25 finishes every year since 2016 with multiple top 10s sprinkled in as well. I think the MC last year was mostly due to his game in general being broken, not just his putter. He is generally in form across the bag and that shows with him being 11th in my model overall. With Finau and Cam Young eating up all of the ownership, it has JT’s projection only around 10-12%. I will take that all day for a guy that has the shot shaping ability to contend here and clearly has found the putter here before.
Chalk #5: Sahith Theegala ($7,700)
Everyone seems to have pegged Theegala as the darling of this price range. DFS Hero is projecting his ownership to be close to 20% which is absurd to me. There are so many $7,000 options that feel a lot safer that have a lot more reps at Augusta. That is probably what people are looking at is his T9 in his first attempt here last year. The drawbacks for me are he isn’t that great around the green despite being a great putter. He also does not have a high apex height which seems to be a correlating stat for guys that have strong finishes here. I think he does have the overall skillset to be a contender here, but I don’t think he does it in his first two starts.
Pivot: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900)
He is barely a pivot in my eyes with his ownership projection hovering around 15% owned, but he might be my flag plant. He has back to back top 15s at Augusta and is priced extremely affordably. He is coming in to this one in good form with a 5th at the Players and T10 at Valero. He is a great putter that should help him on these tricky greens this week. Then you package those things with great scoring metrics and he is far enough off of the tee that it won’t hold him back. I think the form is shaping up well and is trending perfectly for the type of golfer that will contend at such a tough course.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark
9,000s: Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth
8,000s: Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson, Cam Young, Bryson DeChambeau, Shane Lowry
7,000s: Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Stephen Jaeger, Si Woo Kim, Nick Taylor
6,000s: Chris Kirk, Sergio Garcia, Keegan Bradley, Adrian Meronk, Taylor Moore, Lucas Glover, Denny McCarthy
