PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Bay Hill
Distance: 7,466 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 70 golfers, 36 hole cut, top 50 and ties
Key Stats: SG: Tee to Green, Ball Striking, Bogey Avoidance, Club Head Speed, Approach Proximity 150-200 yards
Weather: No rain in the forecast all week and there are wind gusts only around 10-20 mph projected for both PM waves. Not much of a wave advantage that I see at the moment
Breakdown:
Very tough scoring course. Of the last 5 tournaments, only 2 have broken -10 (2021 and 2019 at -12 and -11 respectively) so bogey avoidance will be a big aspect to finishing well
Have to be long and accurate off the tee with an emphasis on being consistent in approach from long distances (150+ yards)
Very long rough, so if you do miss off of the tee, you have to have fast club head speed to make good contact
Sticky course history, so guys with strong finishes in the past hold some merit, but I still value recent form a bit more
From a pricing perspective, there are only 70 golfers and a few high profile golfers in the $6,000 and $7,000 range which makes getting to Scottie and/or multiple $9,000 golfers easy. Their ownership will be inflated
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($11,300)
Unless you run a model that factors in 100% Putting, he is probably going to come out #1. He is almost a shoe in for a top 10 every week behind strong ball striking and tee to green numbers. In strong fields he contends, weak fields he contends. He is legit the full package outside of putting. That is what holds him back just about every week when it comes to winning. DFS Hero is projecting him for over 50% ownership which feels absurd for PGA DFS. With that said, I will be eating every bit of that chalk. There are enough $6,000-$7,000 range options that are playing great right now and/or have strong course history here. That is baked into the ownership projection anyways. I just don’t envision this being the spot he faulters. He is elite off the tee, which you need, and is elite in approach from long range. His club head speed is strong enough that if he misses off the tee, he can get out of the rough as well.
Pivot: Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
Rory is just such a tough click right now with how volatile he can be. He can play like the best player on the planet for 8-10 holes then hit a triple bogey and it ruins his mentality. It is part of the reason he only has 1 top 20 on tour in his last 5 starts. At this price, people are probably just going to get to Scottie or go down to Cantlay and below. With that said, he has some elite course history here with a win in 2018, and then 4 top 10s in the last 5 years. The only non top 10 was a T13 in 2022. That is course history unlike anyone at any tournament. I think if he can just avoid the big numbers, he has the distance and club head speed to get to the green easy and he is top 10 in this field in approach. With DFS Hero projecting him for around 10% ownership, that is something I will definitely be going to as leverage because he can win this one.
Chalk #2: The entire $9,000 range
Based on DFS Hero’s ownership, every golfer in the $9,000 range is seeing 20% ownership except for Viktor Hovland and his ownership is still 18%. All of these guys are playing good golf, have great course history or model well. The only two outside of the top 20 in my model are Spieth and Thomas. Thomas just doesn’t have the best long iron accuracy right now which is holding him back and Spieth is not the most accurate guy off of the tee. Other than that, they all look good. My favorites in this range are Aberg, Hovland and Morikawa. Aberg is trending so well right now, finished T24 here last year in his first start, and models incredibly well. He is the exact type of golfer that should win here. Long off the tee, hits GIR, great with the long irons and actually putts well from time to time unlike Scottie. Hovland is seeing lower ownership and is actually 3rd in my model. I will take that every day of the week. He also has a 10th and 2nd here the last two years which checks the course history box you would want. Morikawa is so elite with the irons that if he can just keep it out of the rough, his slow club head speed wont be an issue and he can stick it on the green for easy looks. Honestly, you can go to any of these guys, but I am still starting my lineups with a $10,000+ option and then just 1 guy in the 9s.
Chalk #3: Wyndham Clark ($8,500)
The US Open and Pebble Beach winner has been incredibly volatile over the last year, but his highs are extremely high. DFS Hero is projecting him for over 20% ownership which I am not a huge fan of. For me, it is the poor Good Drive and SG: Ball Striking numbers being in the bottom half of this field have me extremely concerned. If he is going to struggle to find the fair way, he will fall behind extremely fast. There are guys in the $8,000 range that I like a whole lot more with lower ownership and they model better. Outside of the Pebble win, he hasn’t had 1 top 20 in his last 6 tournaments. Easy pass for me if the field is going to want him this much.
Pivot: Cam Young ($8,700)
I think it is safe to say that Cam Young is finally back. In his last 3 tournaments he has a 4th, 8th and T16th. He has two top 15 finishes here at Bay Hill in the last two years. His combination of club head speed and long iron consistency will more than likely keep him in this one if not contend. My favorite part is DFS Hero has him projected for sub 10% ownership. A guy like him that hits it far, in the fairway and can get it to the green with the irons is a shoe-in for a strong finish as long as you don’t find water. His club head speed is 5th in the field so even if he finds the rough, he should be able to get out of it. I think this is the time he finally breaks out of the just top 10 mold and can vie for the win.
Chalk #4: Stephen Jaeger ($7,200)
Here comes the official chalk donkey of the slate. Do I really like where Jaeger’s game is… 100%. Yeah he missed the cut last week, but prior to that we are looking at double digit made cuts in a row, two top 3s in his last 5 tournaments and on paper checks every box you want. He is top 40 in the field in 85% of the stats I looked at which brings him in as our 19th best golfer in the model. Where I am concerned is he is projected for nearly 25% ownership. I will take the guys above $9,000 at high ownership, but the cheap dudes just don’t get there enough. I think the only thing that I have to talk you off of him is the missed cut last week was a bit ugly, but PGA National will do that to you and so can Bay Hill. He also played here in 2022 and made the cut, but finished outside of the top 50. I would look elsewhere with most everyone under $7,500 seeing minimal ownership.
Pivot: Tom Hoge ($7,100)
After having a multitude of great performances, a lot of the industry was saying last week would be the week he fails. That was certainly not the case after a T28 at PGA National, just continuing his string of made cuts and strong finishes at that. Prior to that, he had 3 top 20s in 5 tournaments with a could top 10s sprinkled in there. For this week, it is similar to last in the sense that water is lurking and you need to avoid that. He did fine in that regard last week and this week the most important part is strong approach play which he has dialed in. He is top 10 from 150-200+ (all 3 of the 150-175, 175-200, 200+ approach buckets) which is elite. I think with his ownership being just around the 10% mark if not lower, he makes for a great leverage play with how good he is playing. In the last 4 years he has two missed cuts, a T32 and T15. That is solid to me and he is coming into this one playing much better golf than he typically had been for the last few APIs.
Chalk #5: Min Woo Lee ($6,600)
I don’t know what Draftkings was thinking pricing him this far down. He is an actual elite golfer in my mindset, coming off of a T2 at the “Honda” and performs very well at these long/difficult courses with strong fields. That is exactly what we have this week and coupled with the fact that he is extremely long off of the tee and is 1st in the field in club head speed, you would think that he should model well. The problem with Min Woo is he is legit bottom of the field in the other categories, especially the approach buckets and Good Drive %. That is a major concern. It didn’t seem like that big of a deal this week, but with all of the best golfers on the PGA tour here this week, it might be a bit tougher for him to pull off a top 3 like last week. Prior to last week, he had some decent performances and was making cuts which is nice. However, he has missed the cut each of the last two seasons at Bay Hill which doesn’t strike much confidence. I would maybe look to a few other $6,000 range golfers at more than half the ownership.
Pivot: Adam Svensson ($6,400)
The Canadian is definitely volatile that is for sure and he missed the cut last week at the Cognizant which wasn’t pretty. However, I have a good bit of faith that he can bounce back well here. He models well, ranking 23rd among the 70 golfers in the field. Between the strong approach play and solid Good Drive %, he should have an easier time figuring out this course. He finished T24 here last year which is strong and he is so cheap you can easily fit the studs in. While there is a strong potential that he sinks you, his upside is being an optimal play while he has been able to do in a few tournaments this year. Among the $6,000 range, he is 2nd in the model (behind Eric Van Rooyen who is 11th in the model). I just have a good hunch about him this week and the numbers back it up.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Patrick Cantlay
9,000s: Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa
8,000s: Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala
7,000s: Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Jake Knapp, Byeong Hun An, Adam Scott, Kurt Kitayama, Harris English, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Hoge, Luke List
6,000s: Austin Eckroat, Erik Van Rooyen
