PGA RBC Heritage Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood, Betsperts, Ron Klos and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Harbour Town
Distance: 7,213 yards
Par: 71
Field/Cut: Elevated Event, 69 golfers, No Cut
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy, Course History, Scrambling, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green
Weather: Literally no weather to factor in at all. Thursday and Friday we have a slight increase in wind starting at around 2 PM EST, but nothing differs between the days. No wave advantage that I see.
Breakdown:
One of the toughest courses on tour with extremely tight, tree-lined fairways, unforgiving rough and extremely small greens
You have to be accurate off of the tee because if you get stuck in the woods, you are going to see atleast a 0.5 strokes lost on most holes
Approach from 150 yards and in is the usual bucket most golfers will be hitting out of. This is definitely a place you don’t have to be long and can win in a number of ways
Driver off of the tee is not paramount and not a single hole does distance see more than 0.15 strokes gained
Given the very small greens, scrambling from around the green will be crucial and short game comes into play big time
Last year, the golfers that had strong SG: Tee to Green metrics finished towards the top and the top 5 finishers (Fitzpatrick, Spieth, Cantlay, Buckley, Theegala) all gained 0.68 strokes putting or more
Model Rankings
Chalk #1: Scottie Scheffler ($13,300)
I am getting a little tired talking about this guy being chalk every week, but it warrants the conversation. He is by far the best player in the world, coming off of a 1st, 1st, 2nd and Master’s win in his last 4 tournaments. I am shocked he is even playing this week, but he hasn’t withdrawn yet which means he is probably going to give it a go. He checks every box, will be tops in everyone’s model and isn’t too difficult to fit into lineups despite the monstrous price tag. DFS Hero is projecting him for only 27% ownership which feels ridiculous to me. If he is going to play going forward, he should be far higher owned. I actually think he is good leverage this week which I didn’t think I would be the case for how hot he is right now.
Pivot: Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)
Everyone else in the $10,000+ range is well over 20% owned except Cantlay who is underwhelming at the moment. His last 3 finishes have been a T22, T68 and T36. That is far from the types of results we expect from Cantlay. I think the thing that makes me think he is good leverage and not bad is his course history here is pretty amazing. He has 3 top 3s in his last 4 Heritage appearances. That is elite company for a course that usually has strongly correlated course history metrics. His issue lately is he can’t put it all together. Some weeks he is accurate off of the tee, some he isn’t, some he has strong approach numbers and vis versa. There is no consistency. Maybe he just needs to get to a course he has strong history at to right the ship. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 12% ownership which is a great number to get him at and gives you huge leverage on the field.
Chalk #2: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,600)
Crazy how quick the narrative changes on a golfer just on recent form. Only about a month or two ago, people were talking about him as if he was washed and his game was in a terrible spot. Well, the last 3 weeks have been a 5th, T10 and T22 at the Masters which could have been better if he played well on Sunday. The game is in good form and he is the returning RBC Heritage winner so there is some history at this course. I just don’t think he can win it again. I am not saying he can’t do well again or contend, I just think based on my model his game isn’t quite where it needs to be. He is good at a lot of things compared to this field, but not great which is why his ranking is 42nd out of 69. I think the big positives are he is accurate off of the tee and has a good short game but that is about it. He is below average in every other metric I am looking at over the last 30 rounds. DFS Hero is projecting him for 21% ownership which is just a touch higher than all the guys around him. Give me those options for leverage.
Pivot: Wyndham Clark ($9,200)
Do people really want to write him off after 1 bad week and 1 bad statement about the LIV golfers? DFS Hero is projecting him for just 11% ownership and considering the price and where he is at in the structure he is far too cheap. He finished T29 here last year and prior to the Master’s MC had multiple, strong finishes with a win at Pebble and 2nds at both the Players and API. If the conditions are going to be good, I think he is one that just mentally shows up for the elevated events. I really can’t fathom why people are just completely bailing on him. The conditions were very tough this past week at the Masters and he just couldn’t get it figured out. It was also his first go at Augusta which is typically very tough to work your way around if you haven’t been there. The only real concern I have is he is not accurate off of the tee and you need that here so the course might not fit him the best. Other than that, I think he can bounce back well this week.
Chalk #3: Cam Young ($8,700)
The “top 10 at majors” streak continues for Cam Young as he finishes T9 at the Masters this past week. He is has back to back top 10s and now gets to go to an elevated event with no cut which honestly fits him even more. He didn’t play well here last year, but he models incredibly well for me considering he is pretty terrible around the greens. If he can somehow be a scratch golfer in that category this week, he should be able to contend. He is top 10 in this field in Good Drive % and Approach which is a big plus this week. We just has to hope he can find these smaller greens over missing on approach and he will be golden. The game is shaping into good form right now and I think he can carry that into this week nicely. The big drawback… his ownership projection is close to 20% this week. I think what has me still interested is the fact that everyone in the $8,000 range is close to 15% if not higher. If you like him, play him. If you don’t then there are other options around him.
Pivot: Tony Finau ($8,600)
I am kind of shocked to see Finau a couple % points lower in ownership compared to guys around him because he is a great fit for this course. He is 4th in this field in Approach, 16th in Good Drive %, 6th in Green in Reg % which will be crucial this week with how small the greens are and is 4th from Tee to Green as well. That is legit the secret formula that led to big success last year. His 2023 finish here wasn’t all that great with a T31, but he was top 10 in Approach and T2G. His letdowns came from losing a stroke putting and about a half a stroke off of the tee. I think he is in a better spot this year in those categories, especially driving the ball. I think for him to disappoint again, it would be from losing a ton of strokes putting. I would say for 80% of the field they are live to lose numerous strokes putting every week so I don’t really think holding that against him is something that I should do. Given his ability to win on tour, getting Finau at this price and ownership feels like a steal.
Chalk #4: Corey Conners ($8,300)
Conners is projected to come in at a cool 19% ownership this week which isn’t bad considering a few guys around him are close to that, but from a course fit standpoint, I really think there are some cons I can’t get over. He finished T31 here last year and the one glaring thing that held him back was he lost 0.72 strokes around the green. Over the last 30 rounds for this field, he is in the bottom 10% for SG: Around the Green and Short Game. That really concerns me. He is almost always a negative in that category and literally can’t putt. Unless he is sticking his irons (which he is live to do) and gaining in bulk off of the tee, I don’t think he can contend. The scrambling and around the green issues coupled with his putting woes will hold him back. I don’t think a tough course like Harbour Town is the place to fix those issues either.
Pivot: Sam Burns ($8,200)
This was a tough pivot choice because everyone around Conners is projected like 14-16% owned. Burns and JT were the only two sitting around 10-12% and that’s crazy considering their name value is much higher typically. They both just aren’t playing that well. We are only a month or two past the point where Burns was literally on fire. From the American Express to the Genesis, he had finishes of T6, 10, T3 and T10. Those are some very strong numbers and looking at his strokes gained data since he really didn’t lose much. At the Masters he was awful in approach but decent everywhere else and Valspar off of the tee crippled him. Last year at Heritage he picked up a T15 on the back of great putting which is typically his thing and was about average everywhere else. If he can just repeat that here but do a little better off the tee and in approach, I think he can do great. My honest opinion as a pivot off of Conners is to pivot all the way down to the $7,000 range, but Burns I actually do have a little bit of faith in here. He isn’t the best around the green, but he is top 20 in this field for both Approach from 100-125 and 125-150 yards. Those are important ranges this week so give me some Burns.
Chalk #5: Akshay Bhatia ($7,700) and Brian Harman ($7,800)
I thought it would be best to talk about these two together because they are far and away the highest owned at the top of the $7,000 range. Akshay is on fire right now with 3 top 20’s in his last 4 with a win at Valero and his Masters debut was actually very solid with a T35. He models very well for me, ranking 3rd overall in this field which is amazing given the price tag. I don’t care about the ownership; I will be playing him regardless. As for Harman, I think his ownership projection stems from his T7 here last year which was mostly due to gaining in all 5 major categories (OTT, Putting, Around the Green, Approach, T2G). Right now he is just not doing that. He has lost on approach in three straight and lost big. The only thing holding his finishes together is a hot putter which I don’t like to think is sustainable even if he is a good putter overall. I don’t really like the regression for him coming into this one with two MCs in his last three and the MC at the Masters was putrid. I would rather go to others in this range or just go to Akshay if I am going to eat some chalk.
Pivot: Chris Kirk ($7,700)
Kirk quietly had an incredible Masters week, finishing with a T16 and is also a week removed from a T26 at the Players which given that field is strong as well. He is only projected for around 10% ownership which is a touch low for this range. He is 8th overall in my model on the heels of a strong T2G game, great Driving Accuracy stats and his GIR% is top 10 in this field. I think what I like the most is looking at the last 4 years of RBC Heritage data, he is 1st in Good Drive % at this course. Something about these tighter, tree lined fairways fits his eye and if he is able to find the fairway often, there is almost no way with how he is hitting the ball from 100-150 yards that he should be anything short of sitting in the top 20. I think he is a strong leverage option to use this week over all of the chalk in this range.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg
9,000s: Will Zalatoris
8,000s: Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim
7,000s: Denny McCarthy, Christian Bezuidenhout, Taylor Moore, Brendon Todd, Tom Hoge
6,000s: Lucas Glover, Nick Taylor, Jake Knapp, Andrew Putnam, Austin Eckroat
