PGA The American Express Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course:
Pete Dye Stadium Course - Par 72, 7187 yards
La Quinta Country Club - Par 72, 7060 yards
Nicklaus Tournament Course - Par 72, 7150 yards
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 156 golfer field, 54 hole cut
Key Stats: Birdie or Better, SG: OTT, DK Scoring, Approach from 75-150 yards, SG: Putting
Weather:
Breakdown:
This tournament typically doesn’t have a loaded field, but 22 of the top 50 OWGR golfers showed up this week.
There is a 3 course rotation. Each golfer plays 1 round on each then Sunday there is a cut down to top 65 and ties with the final round played on the Pete Dye Stadium Course again.
The Tournament Course and La Quinta play about a shot easier than the Stadium Course, but La Quinta has gotten more difficult over the years.
This is a very volatile tournament due to the course rotation and very hard to predict so expect ownership to be flatter.
You almost have to get a hot putter to win or be Scottie Scheffler with everything else with the winning score usually around -22 to -26.
There will be a lot short shots into the green, so Approach from 75-150 yards will be crucial.
Chalk #1: Xander Schauffele ($10,900)
The understanding is that Xander will be the highest owned guy in the $10,000+ range and I think we all can understand why. He is one of the most consistent guys on tour, racking up wins and top 10s at a very consistent rate. He is coming off of a T10 at the Sentry which was a -24 score with only a single bogey. That is absurd to think about only 1 bogey in 72 rounds with 23 birdies and an eagle. He has strong history at this tournament with a T3 last year and not having played in the few years prior to that. DFS Hero has him in the 13-16% ownership range which for me is actually fine. That is a product of people wanting to spend their salary not chalk. This is a very volatile tournament and course rotation, so it isn’t shocking that a consistent guy like Xander who does well just about everywhere is seeing the bulk of the ownership.
Pivot: Patrick Cantlay ($10,800)
His partner in crime and buddy Cantlay is only being projected for around 7% ownership which for me is a steal. That is the lowest in the $10,000 range which makes sense. He doesn’t have a lot of recent form with the only tournament he has played in the last couple months being the Sentry a week ago where he finished T12. He grades out 3rd in my model for the field which is actually ahead of Xander by a good ways. With a strong SG:TOT score, he should be able to tear up all 3 courses and have a strong week. He also has strong history here with a T26 last year and a 2nd in 2021. I think he has been lurking for a while and a win is coming soon. This certainly could be the spot for it.
Chalk #2: Tom Kim ($9,900)
I totally get why he is garnering a lot of ownership this week. During the swing season he was racking up top 20 finishes like crazy and was T6 last year at this tournament. DFS Hero has him for around 18-22% ownership which is the highest in the entire field. His leverage score is well into the negatives with only a 7% optimal rate which isn’t good. He is coming off a poor performance at the Sentry finishing 46th out of a field of 59 golfers. With him not being the greatest putter, I am very leery of rolling him out. He can go low, but to say he should be the highest owned guy for the week is a stretch at this price regardless of how he is playing. If he graded out better I would understand, but he really feels like an average play this week.
Pivot: Sungjae Im ($10,100)
He is only coming in at around 8-10% ownership which is more than fine for a guy of his ability. He has had a strong showing as of late with a top 5 at he Sentry and finished T12 at the ZOZO a couple of weeks prior. He is top 10 in the field in about every category except for the putting which didn’t stop any of his previous appearances finishing 18th, 12th and 11th at this tournament the last 3 years. He feels like a very safe bet to repeat that again if not contend. He shouldn’t be half the ownership of Kim by any means.
Chalk #3: Eric Cole ($8,800)
Put the ownership projections aside, I think he ends up being the highest owned with how much steam he is getting from the community and the numbers back it up. He hasn’t had a finish worse than 35th in any of his last 6 tournaments and 4 top 10’s during that stretch. His Birdie or Better rate is so high that even if he has a bad hole or two it won’t effect him much. He will just get a birdie within 1-2 holes of the bogey. Right now, DFS Hero is projecting him as the 2nd highest owned golfer on the slate with 15-17% ownership. If it holds at that I will be all over him. If it creeps up then I might look elsewhere, but he checks every box this week. Even as a chalk guy I might be eating it.
Pivot: Wyndham Clark ($8,900)
Has he been good lately? No not at all. However, he is the type you will want to be on before he gets back into form and if we know anything about Clark is he can get hot at the drop of a hat. He was incredible in 2023 and just hasn’t found his form heading into this season. DFS Hero has him projected for just 2-4% ownership which feels incredibly low for a guy coming off a major winning season that broke into the OWGR top 12. His ceiling is a win here and he picked up a 50th in 2023 and a 13th in 2022 here. Hopefully he can have a finish closer to 2022 this week.
Chalk #4: Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)
Now we are dipping into the mid range ownership with Akshay who has 3 top 15s in his last 5 tournaments with 8 straight made cuts. He really isn’t getting that much more ownership than the guys around him so I wouldn’t consider him full chalk. The whole range is littered with guys seeing 8-12% ownership, but Akshay is seeing more like 12-15% ownership. He is one you can definitely play him and if he can put it together for all 4 rounds he should be a great option. He doesn’t grade out the best in my model so I will look to other guys in this range over him to get the slight ownership leverage.
Pivot: Taylor Montgomery ($8,100)
He has 5 straight made cuts, a T13 and T8 in his last two and the approach numbers are finally starting to get back to an elite level. With how strong of a putter he is, if the approach game can be strong as well I feel confident he can contend in every tournament he enters. If he can just be an average driver of the golf ball which is not the typical thing you bring up for PGA level golfers (usually it is with putting), then he could be a serious threat this season and in this tournament. He finished solo 5th last year here so he has the ability to have a strong showing. Let’s just hope he carries the strong run of form into this one.
Chalk #5: Beau Hossler ($7,800)
Good ole dumpy Beau coming in at an absurd ownership projection of 13-15% ownership when guys in his range are seeing 3-5% ownership is absurd. Everyone will chase his “form” and see he has 3 straight top 15s and 5 straight top 30s which is really good for a guy in this range. However, the last time he played was over two months ago and with golf if you take some time off it could have a bad effect on your ability to compete. See what happened with Zalatoris (even if that was an injury hiatus). It takes time to get back into form and you can say all you want he is playing good golf but that was months ago. He is an average-below average golfer at best that was playing well above his baseline towards the end of last season. I don’t know if he can keep that up with time off.
Pivot: Stephen Jaeger ($7,900)
I would much rather go to a guy like Jaeger who hasn’t missed a cut in ages and is only seeing a 7-10% ownership projection. He is coming off of a T18 last week at the Sony which is strong and we know is translatable to having good form unlike Hossler who hasn’t played in ages. He has strong Par 5 scoring, SG: Total and Birdie or Better numbers that can get him into a good spot this week. As long as he can putt well, which he has shown in spurts, I think he can contend this week or atleast be a great mid range value. At this price you don’t need to him to win so to speak, but he has to put up points and Jaeger does that at a very consistent rate. That can’t be said for others in this range.
Other Golfers in Play
$10,000s: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000s: Jason Day, Sam Burns, JT Poston
$8,000s: Cam Davis, Adam Hadwin
$7,000s: Alex Noren, Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge, Erik Van Rooyen, Ryo Hisatsune, Mark Hubbard, Patton Kizzire
$6,000s: Alexander Bjork, Carl Yuan, Robert MacIntyre, Scott Stallings, Troy Merritt, Callum Tarren
