PGA Sony Open Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Waialae Country Club
Distance: 7,044 yards
Par: 70
Field/Cut: 144 golfers, 2 round cut event
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy and Distance, SG: Putting
Weather: There aren’t any obvious wave splits to worry about with weather not being a huge factor this week. That can easily change at the drop of a hat so keep an eye on it leading up to lock.
Breakdown:
Another island course that favors approach game and putting
Super flat and wide fairways, but when you miss the fairway it is extremely penalizing so driving accuracy is important to an extent
Short hitters of the golf ball are still valuable as long as they are accurate off the tee
Chalk #1: Brian Harman ($9,900) - 22.4% Ownership
With this being a course that favors shorter and more accurate hitters, I am not surprised that the field is wanting to play a lot of Harman this week. He is coming off of a 5th at the Sentry last week at a similar course. He was 12th in the field putting last week and top 15 in approach. He is 3rd in the field in my model for this weeks which factors in both of those things + many other factors so he grades out well. I wish he wasn’t seeing this type of ownership because I also like him this week, but when there are guys above and below at low ownership it is definitely in your best interests to look to them for leverage.
Pivot: Sahith Theegala ($10,000) - 9.0% Ownership
He can definitely be a hot and cold golfer, but he finished 2nd last week at the Sentry with two middling rounds and really should have taken Kirk to a playoff if it weren’t for the missed approach shot to par 18 on Sunday when he needed a birdie. He was 1st in the field in birdie or better % from multiple approach buckets which will be crucial this week. I think my only concern is the driving accuracy wasn’t that great even though he was 34th on tour last season which is great. He is projected to be the lowest owned guy of the 9k and up guys outside of Willy Z and Hideki which is kind of shocking given his run last week. I’ll take the ownership discount on Sahith this week and hope he can follow up his strong performance last week with another at a similar island course.
Chalk #2: JT Poston ($9,100) - 22.9% Ownership
Poston finished T5 at the Sentry last week with a strong weekend shooting -8 both days. Given this course favors accurate hitters off the tee and strong putting, it makes sense that people are playing JT given he finished 14th on tour last year for both Driving Accuracy and SG: Putting. He is fairly priced given the strength of this field and his recent form, with 9 straight made cuts, 7 of those being top 25 finishes and 6 top 10 finishes since June. I love him this week and honestly might just disregard the ownership this week. He is set up to destroy this tournament. Just beware that 20% owned is very high and there are a few guys in this range seeing much lower ownership.
Pivot: Will Zalatoris ($9,300) - 2.5% Ownership
Literally no one is going to play Willy Z coming off of injury, a last place finish at the Hero World Challenge where he looked horrible and not playing since. However, he did an interview this week where he said going into the Hero he didn’t have any warm-up and has been playing a ton with tour pros lately to get back into form. He feels good about where his game is at and we know he can contend when his game is on point. He doesn’t really fit the mold for a guy that would tear up this course given he isn’t that accurate and isn’t a good putter, but 2% just feels way too low even given all the factors and there is no way he should be 10x lower owned than Poston regardless of the tournament.
Chalk #3: Byeong-Hun An ($8,700) - 21.1% Ownership
I honestly thought he was going to mess around and win last week but finished 4th at the Sentry. A lot of people seem to be chasing that finish here and I think this is the first one that is a big trap. He is not an accurate driver of the golf ball which really wasn’t a factor last week at all. He also isn’t anything special putting which is necessary here again. He did it all around the green and from long approach shots which on a par 73 makes sense. You will have some longer approach shots in. This par 70 will be more focused from 100-150 where he was 46/59 and 44/59 respectively last week. I just don’t think he should be getting this type of ownership and is a definitely fade for me.
Pivot: Si Woo Kim ($8,600) - 12.3% Ownership
The returning Sony Open champ Si Woo is coming off of a T25 at the Sentry with two great rounds and then two poor ones. He didn’t a ton well, but he didn’t fall apart in one single category. For me, I just want to look at putting and driving accuracy numbers where he was 34th and 14th respectively. I like that he was very accurate and kept the ball in the middle of the fairway which is big this week. At almost half the ownership and already showing he can win on this golf course, I will take the leverage with Si Woo this week over his South Korean counterpart An this week.
Chalk #4: Brendon Todd ($7,900) - 21.8% Ownership
We all know that if it is a short course that favors putting and accuracy, Todd is going to be in contention. He is coming off of a T33 last week which isn’t the greatest but it was more he fell apart on the weekend. He was dead last in driving distance last week which isn’t surprising. However he was 7th in driving accuracy and was decent putting to go with it. I am fine with Todd this week but he is definitely one where I would want to pair him with some lower owned options. I think he makes the cut, but to say he will contend is a stretch. He is definitely more of a guy that just takes his top 20 or 25 and that might not be enough with this range having some strong golfers.
Pivot: Justin Rose ($8,200) - 12.9% Ownership
He is almost half the ownership of other guys in this range and legit grades out 1st in my model for the entire field. He only finished 40th last week at the Sentry but here is the catch… he had to take a 2 stroke penalty for playing the wrong ball on Friday and actually carded the lowest round of the entire tournament with a strong Sunday finish at -12. I love that for him coming into this one and he hits the marks you want for this week. He was great putting last week and a strong finisher in the Driving Accuracy category as well. Look for Rose to be a good pivot in this range with a lot of other guys seeing much higher ownership.
Chalk #5: Adam Svensson ($7,700) - 22.2% Ownership
Svensson finished last week at the Sentry tied for 33rd after having a consistent tournament almost every day. He didn’t do anything great, but was accurate driving the ball which might be a reason for the ownership spike this week. I can’t really say I understand why he is the one getting steamed up at all. He finished 41st here last year which I guess is okay but that won’t give you an optimal score this week. He really isn’t a great putter (or atleast didn’t show it last week) so he doesn’t fit the general mold for someone that should be in contention this week. I will gladly go to one of the other golfers in this range seeing far lower ownership.
Pivot: Lucas Glover ($7,700) - 5.1% Ownership
Once you get down in this range of pricing, you likely aren’t going to find a guy that checks every box. Glover does check a lot of them even if he isn’t the most appealing name to click. He finished T29 last week and hit on just about every mark you could want for the major categories you need this week. He was amazing at driving accuracy and almost always is. He was 3rd in the field in SG: Approach which is perfect. He just couldn’t putt to save his life which has always been a struggle for him. If he can just find a magic bean and finish as a zero putter or better, I have a strong feeling he could contend if not win this tournament. He didn’t play well last season at the Sony missing the cut, but that was before he really caught fire which was towards the end of the season. Hopefully he can make the most out of his strong accuracy and approach numbers this week and be the leverage we need in this range. 5% just feels criminally low.
Other Golfers in Play
$10,000s : Ludvig Aberg, Tyrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick
$9,000s : Eric Cole, Chris Kirk
$8,000s : Denny McCarthy, Stephen Jaeger, Adam Hadwin
$7,000s : Matt Kuchar, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Erik Van Rooyen, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, Ben Kohles
$6,000s : Michael Kim, Robert MacIntyre, Doug Ghim, Greyson Sigg, Matthew NeSmith, Nicolas Echavarria
