PGA Farmers Insurance Open Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Torrey Pines
Distance: Two Course Rotation
North Course: 7200 yards, played once
South Course: 7765 yards, played three times (once on THUR/FRI, both weekend rounds)
Par: 72
Field/Cut: 156 golfers, 36 hole cut, top 65 and ties
Key Stats: Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Course History, Approach 225-175
Weather: Tons of rain prior, will make it easier to stick your iron shots
Breakdown:
This is a WED-SAT tournament. Make sure you get your lineups in Tuesday night!
Torrey Pines has very sticky course history. 12 of the last 14 winners had a top 10 at Torrey Pines prior to their win.
The greens are incredibly tough to read with this being one of the only tournaments that features pure Poa annua greens.
You need to birdie or better the par 5s at the North Course if you want to make the cut/contend.
Not a birdie fest. You need to capitalize on your birdie holes and not fall apart on the South Course THUR/FRI to make the cut.
Chalk #1: Collin Morikawa ($10,200)
Collin is trending massively right now and I think everyone is certain he is on the verge of winning here soon. Now he is not the longest guy off of the tee, but he is incredibly accurate which makes up for it and his irons are so strong that even if he is 20 yards behind everyone, he has a better proximity on those long irons than everyone on tour. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 22% ownership which I think will grow come Wednesday. His fit for this course is just so strong and he has strong course history with a 3rd last year. I might be siding with the ownership and just lock him in because I think he is far and away the best play this week.
Pivot: Max Homa ($10,100)
If you want the guy that has the best California golf history, Homa is the man for you. He won last year, is incredible in Cali and on these greens, and is playing incredible golf right now with top 20s in each of his last 4 tournaments. For some reason the field is projecting to be kind of underweight on Homa with DFS Hero at just 16% ownership. That is below both Morikawa and Xander up at the top which feels a bit wrong. I think he should be right there with him just on the course and state history alone. He crushes the Cali swing and I see no reason with how he is playing that he can’t continue to do that.
Chalk #2: Ludvig Aberg ($9,700)
People do not care that he has never played here before or has severely underwhelmed the last few tournaments. He is coming in a projected 23% ownership which is highest among all golfers this week. He does fit incredibly well here with big time Driving Distance and great long iron proximity marks. I see the appeal, but I just don’t think I can expect him to break the mold here. It is such a sticky stat that guys that have played her previously and done will typically do well again and Aberg has never played here. I would like to see him get one week under his belt here before I run to play him at this price tag. He also just is “slumping” right now with no finish inside the top 30 in his last two. That won’t cut it at $9,700.
Pivot: Jason Day ($9,500)
Is he playing elite golf right now? No, not by any means. However, Day might have the best course history of anyone in the field (even Homa) with a 7th and 3rd here in the last two years + a 16th, 5th a win in 2018 through 2020. He is also a big California golfer and checks the box for previous top 10s and winning. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 7% ownership which is low for this range. He grades out well at most shot categories, has elite course history, is fairly low owned and is playing decent golf. What more can you ask for?
Chalk #3: Keegan Bradley ($8,900)
The 8k range has quite a few guys seeing around 8-10% ownership, but Bradley stands out amongst them all with a whopping 18% ownership projection from DFS Hero. He is coming off of a devastating loss in the playoff to Grayson Murray at the Sony, but is in good form nonetheless. He finished 2nd here last year and has multiple top 20s dating back to 2018 at Torrey Pines so he must have a thing for this course. I wanted to like Keegan coming into this week and still do, but at this ownership there are guys directly above and below him at half that with the exact same measurables. He does check a lot of boxes, but that ownership is quite high.
Pivot: Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,400)
This is definitely a prospective play with Hojgaard crossing the pond to come play on the PGA for the first time since the ZOZO back in October of last year. Regardless of that, he is coming off a win at the DP World Tour Championship, a 2nd at the Nedbank and a 7th last week in a field with multiple top notch golfers. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 8% ownership which is quite the discount for guys in this range. He is incredibly long off of the tee which helps here and has decent long irons. If he can just putt well, I think he can contend and be a big leverage piece in your lineups.
Chalk #4: Luke List ($7,800)
I think List is going to be a lot higher owned than the projections suggest, but currently he is being projected for 14% ownership. He won here in 2022, finished 25th last year and a top 10 in 2021 to go with it. He checks that box that you want and is very long off of the tee to go with it. He just fits the mold for the type of golfer that succeeds here and has shown it over the years. I wish he wasn’t the chalk 7k guy which rarely is the optimal play, but I might be eating that chalk this week. He has made every cut since the US Open last year which can’t be said about a lot of the guys once you get down in salary. I like him a lot, but am hesitant about the ownership for sure.
Pivot: Patrick Rodgers ($7,700)
He is coming off of a great Hawaii swing with two top 25 finishes at the Sentry and the Sony. He has not been good at this tournament the last few years, but finished T9 in 2020 so he checks that box. He grades out very well in our model as a very long hitter and is decent at approach. With the greens being tough to putt on, I don’t really care about putting so with him being a poor putter, it might not effect him as much. With just a 6% ownership projection, he could end being a great leverage play getting squeezed by both Jaeger and List + others.
Chalk #5: Taylor Pendrith ($7,400)
If you want a volatile guy that is either going to MC or finish top 15, Pendrith is that guy. He has 3 top 15s in the last 5, but also two missed cuts in that span. He is top 20 in driving distance and top 10 in proximity from 175-200 in 2023 which is the perfect golfer profile for this week. He finished 16th here in 2022 and atleast made the cut last year. I totally understand why people are wanting to play him. DFS Hero has him projected for 13% ownership which is wayyy higher than anyone in this range. He falls into the boat of you either play him in every lineup or completely fade him and I can see both sides.
Pivot: Justin Suh ($7,200)
He is only being projected for 4% ownership which feels extremely low for a guy that profiles out well this week. He drives it far and was 15th last year in approach proximity from 200+ yards along with being 1st in that category this year. He hasn’t started out the season strong with back to back MCs, but once everything falls into place I think he can definitely contend. He has shown flashes of being a great golfer and finished 20th here last year. I don’t expect him to win or anything, but I think he can be a great leverage piece at very low ownership this week.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Xander Schauffele
9,000s: Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Min Woo Lee, Eric Cole
8,000s: Sahith Theegala, Hideki Matsuyama, Adrian Meronk, Will Zalatoris
7,000s: Keith Mitchell, Stephan Jaeger, Ryan Fox, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Ryder, Sam Stevens, Seonghyeon Kim
6,000s: Vincent Norrman, Vince Whaley, Joseph Bramlett, Jhonattan Vegas, Jimmy Stanger
