PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions Chalk and Pivot Report
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: Kapalua Plantation Course
Distance: 7596 yards
Par: 73
Field/Cut: 59 golfers, NO CUT
Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Putting, DK Scoring, Birdie or Better
Breakdown:
The course is long in nature but plays fairly short with a lot of roll out
Off the tee isn’t as big of a factor with massive fairways and a lot of balls run to around the same area
Shorter and inaccurate hitters are definitely in play
Usually a birdie fest so golfers have to hit their putts and have strong second shots into the green.
Weather is not going to be a massive factor this week (not much of a weather edge), but just like any island course wind gusts off of the ocean can play a huge factor at varying degrees on different holes
Chalk #1: Collin Morikawa ($9,100) - 33.4% Ownership
Everyone and their brother is going to be playing this guy and honestly I totally understand why. He should have won last year but fell apart on the back 9 to let John Rahm pull out the victory. This course favors 2nd shots in extremely highly which is Morikawa’s strong suit. This is one spot where I think you either go all in or completely fade him. His 3 events in the swing season he finished 7th, T4th and secured a win at the ZOZO so he is playing great golf. I might personally be siding with the “all in” group because he really does fit this course exceptionally and it being a no cut event means he can be a lot more aggressive at the pins. His big drawbacks are he can’t putt well which is also a big factor here so I could see him throwing in the towel early if he isn’t sticking his iron shots.
Pivot: Tyrell Hatton ($9,200) - 10.8% Ownership
If it is a big event with a lot of money to be won, Hatton is going to show up to compete. He has no business being 1/3rd the ownership of Morikawa even if he hasn’t played here before. He was top 30 in SG: Approach and top 10 in SG: Putting last season so he fits the mold of a golfer that should do well here. His last two starts have been a T2 and T11 so the form is somewhat there. It is just early in the year so tough to really gauge when most golfers haven’t been playing consistently. I think he definitely shows up here with the course really fitting his strengths.
Chalk #2: Ludvig Aberg ($8,700) - 32.3% Ownership
I really think he is the real deal. His last 7 finishes have been 1st, 4th, 10th, 2nd, 13th, 10th and a 1st again with the wins coming at the RSM and the Omega European Masters which are both decent strength fields. His off the tee game is impeccable, already leading or in 2nd (just behind Scottie) in some major driving categories. He was also 1st in just about any birdie or better statistic you could find last season. I don’t know how much he can capitalize on those strengths this week though with a lot of golfers hitting into the same bucket regardless of distance. It will all come down to the approach game and he doesn’t have the strongest approach game from around 100-125 yards out either which is a major factor in this one. Most golfers don’t do as well at Kapalua there first time around so Aberg could be set up to disappoint a lot of people this week, especially at this ownership.
Pivot: Rickie Fowler ($8,600) - 8.9% Ownership
He is literally 1/4th the ownership of Aberg, is very much established as a great iron player who was 7th on tour last season in the SG: Approach category. He was top 50 in putting which is more than fine (outside the top 75 and I would be concerned). He finished 7th at the Hero World Challenge recently which is about all we have to go off of for a few of these guys. The last time he played at Kapalua he finished T5 so there is some course history there. He might not be an up and coming star like Aberg, but he checks a lot of the boxes you would want for a course and event like this and is way lower owned than some of the guys around him.
Chalk #3: Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) - 22.8% Ownership
No one ever wants to play Cantlay but then you look at the stats and form and just end up clicking on him. I think a lot of people do that with him in this one with the projected ownership well into the 20% range. He has elite history at Kapalua with his last 3 finishes being 4th, 13th and 4th. He is a great iron player, ranking 16th on tour last year in SG: Approach. I think a concern of mine is he hasn’t played an official round of PGA golf in the swing season so there could be some rust to shake off. I definitely like him this week, but if he is going to be this owned it becomes hard to really make that click.
Pivot: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) - 14.9% Ownership
This guy just loves golf. He has been pretty active in the swing season overseas and has been piling up some solid finishes. He has 1st, 4th and 27th place finish over the last 2 months in some pretty decent fields. The metrics definitely favor Fitzy on this course with him being 22nd in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Putting last season. I literally think the only thing holding him back is he is more of a grinder. He doesn’t tend to win the birdie fests, but it isn’t like he can’t contend. I think the drawback is he hasn’t played here before, but his history playing links golf with differing wind patterns might suit him well on this island course.
Chalk #4: Eric Cole ($7,400) - 21.0% Ownership
If you want to talk about recent form then Cole is the guy. He hasn’t picked up a win, but has three top 3 finishes in his last 3 tournaments within the last 2 months. He was 19th in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Putting last season on tour so he definitely checks the right boxes. On top of that, he was 8th in Birdie or Better % so he definitely should score well in one of these birdie fests. There are plenty of pros for why you should take Cole this week no doubt. However, the one thing about PGA DFS that does typically stand true is the cheap guys with massive ownership almost NEVER hit at the rate you would expect. At the end of the day he is still a 38 year old golfer that just this season really found his form. He hasn’t played in a little under 2 months so if he took some time off to enjoy the luxuries of having a great season and didn’t stay in form he could be rusty coming into this one and there are guys legit 1/10th the ownership that could play just as well as him and have longer standing tour success.
Pivot: JT Poston ($7,200) - 12.4% Ownership
While he is still getting some ownership, Poston is definitely the type of guy to have success at a course like Kapalua. He is literally 3rd in the entire field in my model on the back of strong rankings in most of the key stats you need. He is great from the 75-100 yard proximity approach bucket which is crucial here. He is also a great putter, ranking 29th in SG: Putting last season. He rarely ever 3 putts which with these greens being huge gives him a strong advantage when you get to the putting surface. His last two starts were a T44 at the RSM and a T3 at the Shriners. He might get steamed up by the industry come Thursday morning, but I still think he can give you a decent ownership advantage over the mega chalk Cole.
Chalk #5: Cam Davis ($7,100) - 20.1% Ownership
Sometimes you really question why the field is all over a guy. I am definitely doing that with Davis this week. He does have some recent form with his last 3 tournaments all being top 12 finishes. He did play in this tournament in 2022 with a 10th place finish in that birdie fest where Cam Smith won at -33. However, he doesn’t really have the best approach or putting stats from last season being 75th in SG: Approach and outside the top 100 in SG: Putting. That definitely concerns me at this ownership which makes him a strict fade for me. There are guys above and below at more than half the ownership that offer the same upside.
Pivot: Adam Hadwin ($7,000) - 7.1% Ownership
There might be a large lay off for Hadwin since he last played, but he still finished 2nd at the Shriners back in October. With the course being fairly wide open, it is definitely going to come down to the approach and putting. He is a great putter which should aid in helping him get plenty of birdies. He doesn’t have the best approach numbers, ranking just outside the top 50 in SG: Approach last season, but he was 17th in Proximity from 100-125 yards which is a major bucket these guys will have to hit out of this week. I will gladly take my chances on Hadwin over Davis at a fraction of the ownership.
Other Golfers in Play
Scottie Scheffler ($11,000)
Xander Schauffele ($10,000)
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000)
Tom Kim ($8,900)
Tony Finau ($8,400)
Sungjae Im ($8,100)
Sahith Theegala ($7,600)
Denny McCarthy ($7,300)
Brendan Todd ($6,900)
Andrew Putnam ($6,400)
Honorable Mention: Seamus Power ($6,300): WARNING he is coming into this one with a back injury so proceed with caution.
