PGA Cognizant Classic Picks and Plays
With 2024 finally here, that means one thing… The PGA season is finally starting back up. One of the biggest ways to be successful in PGA Daily Fantasy is finding an edge with pivoting off of the chalk. Unlike other sports, chalk or high owned plays almost never get there at the rate you would expect. It is basically a coin flip (50/50) whether or not the 20% owned guy gets there vs. the 2% owned guy that no one wants to play in the same price range. Now that doesn’t mean you need to play all of the leverage/pivot options, but you definitely need to think twice before jamming in all of the picks and plays the industry will try to get you to go for. Our goal is to identify the top 5 owned golfers in different price ranges using DFS Hero’s top of the line ownership projections and then find guys in the same price range for far lower ownership who stand out for reasons such as current play or course fit rankings. Let’s dive right in!
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DISCLAIMER: All Ownership %’s are from DFS Hero’s AI generated and machine learning model. They might not be perfect, but they will be close. Other data sources come from PGATour.com, RickRunGood and Degen75. Definitely give them a look because their data and information is top of the line for PGA.
Tournament Info and Key Stats
Course: PGA National
Distance: 7147 yards
Par: 71
Field/Cut: 139 golfers, 36 hole cut, top 65 and ties
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Driving Accuracy/Good Drive %, Bogey Avoidance, Proximity from 100-150 yards, SG: Putting on Bermuda
Weather: Heavier winds projected for mid-day Friday so maybe a PM/AM wave advantage for this week. That is subject to change.
Breakdown:
One of the toughest courses on the PGA circuit with water lurking at almost every hole
Short course by most standards so factoring in the water penalty, Drive Accuracy will be crucial especially with less than driver off the tee
If you can make out Even or better thru holes 4-6 and the Bear Trap (15-17), you more than likely will have an above average round
A lot of drives need to be hit to similar buckets give you a similar approach from around 150-200 yards. You need to be strong in approach from those ranges.
Model Rankings
With ownership extremely flat this week, I want to get away from Chalks and Pivots because most everyone above $8,000 is going to get some ownership. DFS Hero doesn’t have anyone projected over 15% ownership which makes it tough to “play the game”. I am going to be using my model more consistently this week because of it and taking ownership more into account for guys I am going to fade. If they are going to be above 7% ownership and model poorly, I will probably be getting off of them for others around them that come in at a similar/lower ownership and model better.
$10,000+ Favorite: Russell Henley ($10,200)
I waivered on Henley and Cam Young as my favorite, but am siding with Henley because he models incredibly well for me and has some strong history at PGA National. His last time here he finished T3 in 2021 which is a very strong finish. He has decent form coming in, making every cut with a T4 at the Sony. He has a very strong Good Drive % which should keep him away from the water lurking and pairing that with a strong Bogey Avoidance and Around the Green ranking pushes him up to 3rd in my model. He is a good Bermuda putter as well so he checks all the boxes for this week.
Least Favorite: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,600)
His game is just not at a point that I think he can contend at this tough of a course. He is historically great at grinder type tournaments with stronger fields, but he is coming off of a missed cut at the Genesis where he just didn’t have anything going and his best finish in 2024 is a T14 at the Sentry which is a 59 man field so is that even a strong finish. He is 71st in my model with a poor SG: Approach ranking and has been poor with the Driver overall. If you don’t have those two things going for you, you are going to struggle more than likely. He is just not a spot I will be going this week.
$9,000s Favorite: Eric Cole ($9,900)
A lot of the field is going to play him and if there was one “chalk piece” this week it would probably be him. DFS Hero is projecting him for 16% ownership which is the highest on the slate. The thing is a lot of golfers around him are also seeing north of 10% ownership so the difference is minimal. When he is 1st in my model, I am going to be playing him plain and simple. He is great in approach, his SG: Total numbers are top 10 in the field, he is a fantastic Bermuda putter and to cap it off he lost in a playoff to Chris Kirk here last year so the course fit is there. He is coming off of a T10 at the Genesis which was an absolutely loaded field. I think this shorter course where his shorter driving distance can be mitigated is a big help. Factoring in how strong the rest of his game is, I wouldn’t be shocked if he contends here once again this year.
Least Favorite: Min Woo Lee ($9,600)
Everyone loves to play Min Woo and I think most weeks it is warranted. The thing is, his game is going in the wrong direction. Over his last 5 tournaments he has moved further away from contending in each with a T6, T15, T21, T43 and T71 over his last 5 in succession. He is not the best in approach which will kill you this week and doesn’t have the most accurate driver. I could see him finding the water and even if he doesn’t, his approaches in to the green might not be the most accurate. I just don’t think this is the best set up for him by any means and there are guys around him whose games are in much better spots.
$8,000s Favorite: Stephen Jaeger ($8,800)
I am not a huge fan of this range, but Jaeger is one who stands out in the model and passes the eye test for sure. He has two top 3s in his last two tournaments, comes in 9th in my model mostly on the back of being top 35 in this field in just about every category I am looking at. He is just so consistent across the board and unless he finds the water multiple times, he will do just fine. Every time I end up fading him, he finishes top 10 so I am not going to make that mistake this week.
Least Favorite: Alex Noren ($8,200)
I honestly just don’t think this guy is that good. He is a poor mans’ Jaeger in the sense that he makes the cut almost every week, but never amounts to much. He doesn’t have a top 20 in any of his last 5 tournaments which at this price probably won’t cut it. He does model fairly well given he is a good Bermuda putter and barely ever gets bogeys, but his approach numbers leave a lot to be desired and he isn’t the most accurate off of the tee. That could get him in a lot of trouble this week and when is 1st in the $8,000s in projected ownership, I just can’t get there.
$7,000s Favorite: Lucas Glover ($7,100)
This is a risky guy to hitch my ride to, but he probably has the best approach numbers in this entire field, rankings 2nd and 5th in SG: Approach and Fairway Approach Proximity respectively. His ownership is not going to be high by any means which is good and he does have some decent finishes in his last couple of tournaments. He played here in 2022 and finished T30 which I think is fine for a guy at this price. There are guys around him that will draw significantly higher ownership numbers so he is a big leverage piece. Like most, if he can stay out of the water, his approach strengths should carry him to an easy made cut and if the putts can fall I actually think he can contend. While he isn’t playing like he did at the end of 2023, he is still trending in the right direction.
Least Favorite: Maverick McNealy ($7,100)
He is the same price as Glover and coming off of two top 20s at Mexico and Phoenix. That alone will boost his ownership for sure. The thing is he is almost outside of the top 100 in my model which is atrocious for this field. He isn’t great in approach, ranks almost dead last in Good Drive % and the last time he played here he missed the cut. That just is not going to work for me this week. He would have to make a big turn around in both of those categories just to make the cut better yet push for a top 20. He just isn’t a good play for me this week.
$6,000s and Below Favorite: Carson Young ($6,700)
I flip flopped between Carson Young and Chesson Hadley here, but am siding with Young just on the merit that he finished Sunday a lot better in Mexico than Hadley. Both were in the top 20, but Young fired off a 66 to finish T8 last week. Now he comes to a course that he has shown some good form at with a T29 last year. He is 11th in my model given his strong ranks in SG: Approach, Good Drive % and Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance. I think he has just what it takes to grind out a solid finish this week. He checks just about every box you could want and is incredibly cheap for the upside he can provide. Let’s hope he can keep this strong run of play going.
Least Favorite: Justin Suh ($6,800)
While he does model fairly well for me, I think his extremely poor approach numbers will hold him back this week. He also doesn’t avoid bogeys enough that I think that could sink him for sure if he even remotely has struggles off of the tee and finds water. He is expected to be around 5% owned which isn’t high, but I won’t be apart of that 5%. I think there are much better plays around and below him. His T5 here last year will more than likely boost his ownership up as well so that is a no for me. I just don’t like the form he is coming into this one with to assume he can repeat that finish from last season at PGA National.
Other Golfers in Play
10,000s: Cam Young, Tom Kim
9,000s: Chris Kirk, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Corey Conners
8,000s: Sepp Straka
7,000s: Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Christian Bezuidenhout, Mark Hubbard, Adam Schenk, Billy Horschel
6,000s: Akshay Bhatia, Davis Thompson, Ben Griffin, Chesson Hadley, Dylan Wu
5,000s: Sam Ryder, Ryan Moore
