NFL - Week 8 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
All $8,000 and above QBs (Mahomes/Hurts/Lamar)
All 3 of these guys are in picture perfect spots this week so it is going to be very hard to see them all fail and a mid priced or cheap QB being optimal. Mahomes plays Denver who allows the 3rd most pass yards and most pass TDs/game, Hurts gets Washington who allowed the 6th most pass yards and 2nd most pass TDs/game and Lamar gets Arizona who allows the 8th most pass yards and tied with Washington for 2nd most pass TDs/game. I think you can mix and match them with their top targets then find value elsewhere. All 3 will get decent ownership and I have no issue eating it.
Pivot: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700)
Dak Prescott ($6,100)
I don’t know if I fully like this play because the Rams have allowed the fewest pass TDs/game so far but Dak did finally look good last week, is coming off of a bye and will have to throw to keep pace with the Rams. He has plenty of weapons to stack with him and the runback is super confined to pretty much Puka or Kupp. Personally, I would rather go to Pollard as leverage with like 6-8 good RB options this week that could pump Pollard’s ownership down. However, he is cheap enough and if he is on he can be a good QB. He plays a lot better at home vs. on the road which feeds into the argument to play him.
Pivot: Trevor Lawrence ($6,200)
Desmond Ridder ($5,100)
This is more of a personal play because I always target QBs against the Titans. They allow the 11th most pass yards and fewest INTs/game so far this season. Ridder has looked a bit better over the last month with a much higher COMP% and has averaged 20 DK points/game over the last 3 weeks. He has two very obvious stacking options in Pitts and London who are also cheap so you can fit in a couple studs. Even without a run back option standing out I think you can go with Ridder + 1 or 2 pass catchers and keep pace. I think even pairing him with Bijan who will get virtually no ownership after last weeks debacle and catches plenty of passes could give you some serious leverage.
Pivot: Kenny Pickett ($4,900)
Other Considerations:
Kirk Cousins ($6,900)
Matt Stafford ($6,600)
CJ Stroud ($6,300)
Brock Purdy ($5,600)
Gardner Minshew ($5,400)
Bryce Young ($5,100)
Chalk RBs:
Alvin Kamara ($7,300)
The man is just getting so much volume especially in the pass game to be ignored. He is going to pop in just about every script and the matchup is just about as good as it can get. The Colts can’t stop the run to save their lives so if Kamara is going to be able to add some extra rushing stats to his resume along with the passing work means the sky is the limit. This is the don’t get cute play of the slate. He is the perfect DK RB option being a PPR format.
Pivot: Tony Pollard ($7,500)
Travis Etienne ($7,200)
Three straight games north of 20 DK points and another decent matchup. I prefer other options which is why I would be hesitant. Pittsburgh has sucked against the run this season which makes me think he can continue the strong run of form, but I have seen in the past where he just disappears and the Steelers actually matchup well against them. If they can keep pace the Jags might try to throw a bit more. This “take” could come back to haunt me, but I don’t love the ownership. I would rather go to Pollard or Kamara at this price.
Pivot: Kenneth Walker ($7,000)
Breece Hall ($5,900)
This will be the chalk RB of the day (along with Kamara). He is finally getting all of the work, the matchup against the Giants is solid given they allow the 6th most rush yards and 3rd most rush TDs/game this season. He looks the part after the injury sidelined him early this season. The Jets don’t trust Wilson so leaning on Breece is always going to be the optimal strategy. I am fine eating this chalk. The Giants don’t defend the rush well and actually limit passing to a certain extent well.
Pivot: Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Other Considerations:
Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Jonathan Taylor ($6,200)
Bijan Robinson ($6,000)
Joe Mixon ($5,800)** Also chalky
Alexander Mattison ($5,600)** Also chalky
Gus Edwards ($5,500)
Najee Harris ($5,100)
Chalk WRs:
AJ Brown ($8,000)
With the run he is on he should be similarly priced to Kupp and Tyreek but is a full $1,000+ cheaper. Five straight 125+ yard games which is either a record or tied for a record (I can’t remember exactly which one it is) and now faces a secondary that allows the 6th most pass yards and 2nd most pass TDs/game this season. This feels like a no brainer, but the Eagles can always win in a number of different ways so you really need him to continue this run if you want him to be optimal. I am fine with it, but in GPPs there is an argument to go to the guys around him or even go down to Devonta Smith who will be a fraction of Brown’s ownership and we have seen him be the alpha before as well.
Pivot: Cooper Kupp ($9,000)
Jordan Addison ($5,700)
Addison really had his breakout game last time out with 10 targets and 7/123/2. Green Bay is on a skid, but their defense hasn’t been the issue in my opinion. Even with Jaire Alexander on the other side possibly shutting Addison down, he is so dynamic and doesn’t really fit the mold for a guy Jaire would try to shadow and he doesn’t shadow so I have problem chasing the Addison chalk. The only thing that makes me think his ownership comes down a bit is because Zay Flower and Adam Thielen are priced similarly and McLaurin is also popping in projections. Someone has to catch the ball for Minnesota and Addison seems to be a favorite of Kirk’s to provide big plays.
Pivot: Christian Kirk ($5,900)
Josh Downs ($4,800)
The industry is all about Downs after another big game last week. This offense continues to score well and this week against NO who stops the run very well might mean they just start chucking like last week. He has 6+ targets in 4/5 weeks and has shown big play potential. It would fit for Marshon Lattimore to guard Pittman and give him issues which could open up more for Downs out of the slot. The rookie has stolen the show in Indy and is fairly priced given the upside. I have no issue going back to him this week with the field.
Pivot: Kendrick Bourne ($4,700)
Other Considerations:
JaMarr Chase ($8,100)
Puka Nacua ($7,900)
CeeDee Lamb ($7,600)
Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000)
DeVonta Smith ($6,700)
Adam Thielen ($6,600)** Also chalky
Chris Olave ($6,400)
Amari Cooper ($6,200)
Calvin Ridley ($5,800)
Zay Flowers ($5,600)** Also chalky
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,500)
Terry McLaurin ($5,400)** Also chalky
Marquise Brown ($5,200)
Christian Watson ($5,100)
Drake London ($5,100)
Diontae Johnson ($5,000)
Rashee Rice ($5,000)
Jahan Dotson ($4,500)
Rasheed Shaheed ($3,900)
Jauan Jennings ($3,800)
Brandon Powell ($3,200)
Chalk TEs:
Travis Kelce ($8,400)
I will be quick with this. The Broncos defense is atrocious. Last time these two teams played just a few weeks ago Kelce got 9/124 and no TD. I would bet some serious money that he scores as long as Taylor Swift shows up. A LOT of the field is paying down at TE, but if you want some leverage against that majority of the field why not pay up for the stud TE with a lot of RB and WR value this week.
Pivot: Mark Andrew ($6,400) or TJ Hockenson ($6,200)
Darren Waller ($5,200)
Waller plays the Jets this week who have allowed the 2nd most TE DK points/game this season just behind the Broncos who Kelce plays. He might not get the most ownership, but he is easy to stack with Breece Hall to create a game stack and has 7+ targets in 4 out of the last 5 weeks. He is trending in the right direction and no too expensive that it limits you like Kelce does.
Pivot: Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Trey McBride ($2,800)
No Zach Ertz so McBride is going to be the defacto TE1 and see all the TE routes and snaps. He will be the chalk TE of the week and I can’t bring myself to go there. The Ravens have allowed the 2nd fewest TE DK points/game this season but they haven’t really faced a good TE yet outside of LaPorta last week who did alright. I just don’t know if the Cardinals will be able to muster any bit of offense given the Ravens defense just made the Lions electric offense look like a college football offense. The positive is that he is so cheap you can fit in just about whatever you want if you pair him with just 1 or 2 other cheap pieces (defense is almost always cheap). I could see him being a massive bust though.
Pivot: Chig Okonkwo ($3,000)
Other Considerations:
George Kittle ($5,400)
Dallas Goedert ($4,600)
Dalton Schultz ($3,900)
Kyle Pitts ($3,800)
Jake Ferguson ($3,600)
Connor Heyward ($2,600)
DST
Seahawks DST ($3,400)
Texans DST ($3,300)
Steelers DST ($2,900)
Vikings DST ($2,500)
