NFL - Lions vs. Raiders Showdown Preview
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Check out their Lions vs. Raiders SD video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
There is more than enough value on this slate with injuries to allow you to pay up at CPTN. I don’t know how you can see Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16,800 CPTN) get 34 targets over the last two weeks and not see a path to him being the optimal CPTN. He probably has the highest target share in the league currently and their defense looking like swiss cheese last week makes me think the Raiders can keep things competitive. If that is the case ARSB will continue to get the massive target share and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Maybe, just maybe, the analytics people who see the Raiders are good at slowing down passing attacks will keep his CPTN ownership at bay. Regardless, I think he is a great CPTN pick. Next up for me is one that might be a bit more obvious but Jahmyr Gibbs ($12,900 CPTN) without David Montgomery has gotten some elite volume as well, with 19+ touches in each game that Montgomery has missed. Last game out he had a ton of passing down work with 9 catches on 10 targets, but the Raiders allowing the 9th most rush yards/game this season makes me think that he will do it on the ground tonight. His last three games he has had a 4.7 YPC number or higher so the efficiency is there and the workload is as well. What is there not to like. The icing on the cake is the Lions are a whopping 7.5 point favorites tonight so the script could feature a lot of Gibbs touches. I love him tonight at a decent price tag as well. Lastly, there is no reason that Josh Jacobs ($12,600 CPTN) and Jakobi Meyers ($12,300 CPTN) should be this cheap ever. Jacobs had a poor game last week, but prior to that he was seeing north of 20 touches in just about every game and Meyers hasn’t scored less than 15 DK points in any game except for one this season. This offense features three guys and that is about it and these two are apart of that conversation. The only real concern for Jacobs is when the game got out of hand last week they just went away from him entirely. This is projected to also get out of hand which goes against his ceiling, but we have seen him be a big feature in the passing game as well. Maybe it was just an outlier week last week. The Lions also have allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards/game this season and the Raiders OL has been suspect in the run blocking department this season. I still think on volume alone he is way too cheap. Meyers is almost script proof at this point. He has 7+ targets in 4 of the last 5 weeks and double digits in 3 of those games. You would think eventually he will bust, but he has looked fantastic so far this season. Just as a filler, if I were to punt CPTN it would be Michael Mayer ($5,700 CPTN) or Craig Reynolds ($4,800 CPTN) but I will get into why down below.
Lions
The Lions are 7.5 point favorites at home with a 27 point implied team total. Vegas is leaning towards this being a blowout, but man did the Lions look bad last week. The Raiders aren’t quite as good as the Ravens, but they do have some solid position players on defense that they will need to seriously gameplan for. On the offensive side of the ball, Jared Goff ($10,400) looked pretty lackluster, but the Ravens’ defense is very good. I expect him to bounce back well here. He had back to back 20+ DK point games prior to that. The thing that is kind of playing against him is the Raiders are a lot worse against the run then the pass so Goff should regress back to his around 30 pass/game from the 40+ over the last two weeks. I think he can still get there, but I see an avenue where they get it done in the run game and control the clock. They get up early leaning on the RBs and Goff has another sub par fantasy game. I think he has a solid floor but I don’t know if this is a ceiling spot for him. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,200) can honestly get there on volume alone which is why I will like him in just about every SD. He can get 10 catches for 102 yards (like he has done in 3 games this year ironically) which is 25.2 DK points and if Goff finishes with 198 no TDs then he will have had a poor game and its likely we get another ARSB and Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,600) masterclass. I think Gibbs is in a very favorable spot against the team that has allowed the 9th most rush yards/game this season. He should get most of the volume per usual with Montgomery out. He looked fantastic last week in the second half after it had already blown out. My only concern is the passing work should come down, but the rushing upside probably offsets that. The only other guy that gets big volume is the other rookie Sam LaPorta ($7,400) who just has such a high floor in this offense. The Raiders have been bang average against TEs this season so I see no reason he can’t keep up this strong run of play. He just gets so many targets averaging 9 over the last two weeks. He has since had a bit of a TD regression so maybe he can get one this week. He is one I like but I am not rushing to get him into my lineups. After these guys, it kind of becomes a crap shoot. Pricing wise, we are led by Josh Reynolds ($6,300) who is way too expensive for a guy getting just 3-4 targets/game. You can go down to Kalif Raymond ($2,800) who is much cheaper doing the same thing for you but might not be as consistent with it. The way the pricing and the dynamics shake out I would much rather go with wildcards from the Raiders than the Lions. They just don’t stand out for me. If there were to be a Lion that I might take a swing on it would be Antoine Green ($200) who is atleast getting a lot of snaps. If we expect another blowout then I expect to see him get decent run again. We have seen plenty of times in SD where the random guy that doesn’t get many targets often get 3-4 out of nowhere. It is extremely risky given this game could stay closer than expect and Green would likely go back to just around 15-20% of the snaps vs. 30-40%. I just don’t think he can be ignored tonight. There is a path to him getting there, but there is also a path to him goose egging you. Definitely more of a deep field GPP play not anything less than 150 max. The last guy to really talk about is Jameson Williams ($5,200) who we need to start having some serious conversations about. He is starting to look like a real bust. Boom bust is about the only way to explain him. Some games he is going to completely flounder and in others he is going to get a couple deep catches and if the TD hits then he will certainly be optimal. I will always love those types in GPPs but man it is a tough click. He did get 6 targets last week which was a career high for him so far. If he can continue that then the sky really is the limit. He gives me Kadarius Toney vibes. I will have a bit of him, but don’t want to over do it because he will fail you a lot more than he will hit for you. That is about it for pass catchers. The backfield will be Gibbs and Craig Reynolds ($3,200) pretty much exclusively. He might be the punt play I get to the most. He will get touches, the script fits having him be more involved, he is a week healthier (he came in banged up last week) and the team loves him. At this price tag he really is a TD away from being optimal. I can’t help but look at the fact he is a week removed from getting 12 and 7 touches in the weeks prior. Just like Gibbs, the Raiders are bad against the run so he could be a good low priced play tonight. Don’t get cute and play a Brock Wright ($200) unless you believe the “backup TEs score on primetime SD slates” narrative. I am done chasing that, but it would be fitting that I finally jump off of the bandwagon and this is the week it happens.
Raiders
The Raiders are 7.5 point underdogs on the road with a 19.5 point implied team total. Vegas clearly thinks they lose tonight but I actually think it stays closer. The Lions got battered last week on the defensive side. The Raiders have such a condensed offense and lucky for them a few are insanely cheap including Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,400) who is coming back from injury this week. When he is active the offense pretty much flows exclusively through Davante Adams ($10,800) and Jakobi Meyers ($8,200) who both average around 10 targets/game. Outside of two games, Adams really hasn’t been too good this year. Only 12+ DK points in 5/7 is so unlike him and at this price you can’t afford those types of performances. I hope it keeps his ownership low because I fully expect the bounce back to be tonight. The Lions have allowed the 9th most pass yards/game this season. Hopefully it can go to Adams, but if you need some salary relief I think its fine to go to Meyers. They will be in a trailing script most likely which favors passing. I think one does well and the other struggles. Outside of those two, Josh Jacobs ($8,400) is the 3rd in command and he might be the biggest question mark of this game. The Lions are very solid against the run, but we have seen Jacobs just feast in the passing game. I have no clue how his ownership will shake out, but a lot hinges on that. If he is projected to be higher owned I would probably fade him. If he is projected to be low owned then I like him a good bit. It’s as easy as that. Then we get the real wild cards. Everyone loves a good Halloween narrative and there is no better name than Michael Mayer ($3,800) who has finally overtaken Austin Hooper ($800) as the TE1 in terms of snaps as well as targets. He busted last week but the week prior he had a 5/75 game and finally broke out. I get the appeal don’t get me wrong. The Lions have given up the 4th most TE DK points/game this season so he is primed to have a big game. However, at the high ownership he is projected for this screams just go to Hooper at 1/10th of the ownership and hopefully he gets the TD because that is what both of them need. I like the price on both for the spot they are in, but given how condensed the offense is and how much usage Adams/Jacobs/Meyers warrant they could disappoint. Then you get to Hunter Renfrow ($1,200) and Tre Tucker ($600) who are seeing similar routes and snaps. Both have seen a few targets the last few weeks, but given Tucker’s use in the run game as well makes me like him more. They seem to like him a bit more with the uptick in snaps over Renfrow lately. The matchup out of the slot isn’t the best for either of them though. Brian Branch has been pretty solid this season. Don’t get cute and play a backup RB like Zamir White ($1,600) or Ameer Abdullah ($200) who will get snaps to spell Jacobs but nothing of value. I can’t really sit and say I like anyone other than Jacobs, Jimmy G, Adams or Meyers. The rest are absolute lottery tickets.
DST and K
I just want to cut to the chase I don’t care for either defense. I can’t bring myself to tout up the Lions DST ($5,000) after getting steamrolled last week and I have some faith in the Raiders offense and the weapons they have. The talent is there, they just need to put it together which this could be a spot to do so. The Raiders DST ($3,600) I think is just bad so I won’t be going there. This feels like a good spot for the Lions to rebound after a bad week. As for the kickers, whether it is James McCourt/Daniel Carlson ($4,200) atleast they are cheaper then Riley Patterson ($4,800). I would side with Patterson because the Lions should score well and he might only need 1-2 FGs and he can get you there. As for the Raiders’ kickers, I like the price but I don’t know how viable they are going to be. This team just doesn’t kick a lot of FGs and XPs won’t cut it. Also Carlson is kind of banged up and McCourt is well a backup kicker in the NFL. How good can he really be? I don’t think I will get there with them.
My Narratives
Amon Ra > everyone
I almost never do this, but there is an avenue for no QBs tonight
Adams > Meyers
Gibbs > Jacobs
I like Craig Reynolds and Tre Tucker as punts
3/3 or 4/2 both ways
Lions win a closer game 24-21
