NFL - Bills vs. Buccaneers Showdown Preview
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
My initial thought is they did a solid job of pricing the guys that actually see volume well. I think they all grade out fairly well from a point/dollar perspective so it will be more about getting the value correct and there sure are a few guys that stand out. I would be failing you if I didn’t bring up the top value option on the slate in Dalton Kincaid ($7,500 CPTN). He finally broke out last week to the tune of 8/75. With the Bucs allowing the 12th most receiving yards/game this season, there is no reason he can’t be featured again. The Bills will be without both Dawson Knox and backup TE Quintin Morris, so the job is exclusively Kincaid’s. I expect them to bring up a TE from the practice squad, but it won’t take away from Kincaid’s role. I think he gives you just what you need to fit in other studs on this slate. The next CPTN option for me will always be Josh Allen ($17,700 CPTN) on a Bill’s SD slate. He has the highest ceiling of anyone and has to be fired up after losing to the lowly Patriots last week. No better spot to bounce back than in a primetime spot at home. His rushing and passing upside is only touched by a few guys in the league so I would try to get him in regardless of if it is at CPTN or UTIL. With him having the highest ceiling on the slate, if you can fit him at CPTN you should. I am also always interested in Gabe Davis ($10,200 CPTN) given the explosive play upside. He has seriously disappointed the last two weeks after 4 straight big weeks. That might keep his ownership depressed which is a big factor in SD. He is still the WR2 in terms of snaps and some weeks has a top target share on this team. He should see a lot of Jamal Dean who has been pretty poor this season statistically. All he needs is one big play and it could vault him up and then a couple catches to go with it and he can be the optimal CPTN option. If you want to be a bit more contrarian, I think playing a Buc might be the correct move. The Bills defense is depleted right now so there is an angle where they let the Bucs hang in this game. Chris Godwin ($11,700 CPTN) shouldn’t be this cheap given he has quietly had 30 targets over the last 3 games. He is due for some TD regression and has been producing at a solid level lately. What more can you ask for? Other than these 4, you can always go to most of the studs. On a SD slate anything can happen. Those are just my favorites.
Bills
The Bills are 8 point favorites at homes with a 25.75 point implied team total. I genuinely think this is a spot I would bet my mortgage on the Bills winning and not even be in the slightest bit worried. They lost in embarrassing fashion to the Pats last week and will be chomping at the bit to take out the anger on the Bucs. Josh Allen ($11,800) turned the ball over a few times and still managed 25 DK points. I wish he was getting more rush yards, but the TDs are there and the Bucs are in the bottom half of the league in Hurry %, Pressure % and QB Knockdown %. If Josh is going to have a clean pocket to operate in then the sky is the limit. His floor tonight is like 20 DK points with the ceiling being breaking the slate. Don’t fade him here. Stefon Diggs ($11,400) is just playing at an unreal rate this season. He has double digit targets in all but 1 game this season and the Bucs allow the 6th most receiving yards/game this season. Even at this price tag he seems like a smash play if you can find a way to get him in. I already touched on Dalton Kincaid ($5,000), but he just seems like a free square. He is trending statistically and the top 12 for TE targets allowed this season. He should get the looks and as the only quality TE on this team healthy there is no reason to believe he can’t pick up right where he left off last week. Gabe Davis ($6,800) is always going to be a boom bust type of play, but for GPPs and SD slates he grades out as the perfect type of player with massive upside and still involved. This price tag is also really cheap for the ceiling he can give you. I love him but I do know the possible outcomes and one of them is tanking me. I am willing to take that risk. After that we have some less involved players like Khalil Shakir ($3,200) and Deonte Harty ($1,000) who each play on around 35% of the snaps. I do expect that to trend up a little bit with only 1 active TE rostered currently. That could change based on PS call-ups which we should know fairly soon. Shakir is trending upwards with 4 targets last week, but hadn’t had more than 1 prior that game all season. At his price tag I just don’t know if he is the best option given that could have been an outlier game. I still like his talent. Harty is going backwards with decreasing looks every week, but atleast his price is easy to fit into a stars and scrubs build and you only need 1 or 2 catches out of him for it to pay off. Shakir you need atleast 3 catches and a decent chunk of yards or a TD most likely. There is also Trent Sherfield ($400) who is also playing on around 25% of the snaps, but isn’t doing much with it. I won’t be going here, but as a punt in large field tournaments I think he is okay. As for the backfield, James Cook ($8,600) is extremely polarizing to me. At first glance, the Bucs don’t give up a lot of rush yards/game and Josh Allen is the true RB1 at the end of the day. However, Cook produces well when given the opportunities. He has a high yards/carry number but the TDs just never go his way unless it is in the pass game. I kind of feel like this is a spot he could easily disappoint in given the price tag is high and they don’t want to get him red zone carries. I will be fading, but he makes for decent leverage. Latavius Murray ($4,800) is the guy they are giving red zone touches to, but they are few and far between. Unless this blows out or something happens to Cook injury wise I doubt he gets more than 8 touches. The price is tough to get to so I won’t be going there. If you want to take a shot on Reggie Gilliam ($200) it kind of makes sense. If they opt to not bring up a TE from the practice squad, he will likely be the default TE2 which in PPR formats gives him a boost. If they do opt to bring up a TE then I would probably look elsewhere because he would get most if not all of his work as the FB. Now backstory: a guy I work with his nephew actually is the TE on the practice squad Joel Wilson ($200) and I have some inside scoop that they are not calling him up and opting to go to Gilliam as the TE2. I will take their word for it so I actually have some interest in Gilliam. They use both TEs frequently and at the flat minimum can you really go wrong?
Buccaneers
The Bucs are 8.5 point underdogs on the road with a 17.25 point implied team total. They are in a tough spot tonight. The Bills don’t seem like the type of team to lose two games in a row especially at home. I was going to touch on weather but it is slated to 66 degrees with little to no wind tonight so they won’t be out of their element. Just another late night game for them. Baker Mayfield ($9,200) is priced extremely cheap for a QB on a showdown slate so I have some interest. He is questionable to play but I fully expect he will suit up. He might not have the highest ceiling, but QB’s usually support a solid floor and the Bucs secondary without Tre White is vulnerable. If Mac Jones can complete north of 80% of his passes and look great against the Bills secondary so can Baker. He has weapons in Mike Evans ($10,000) and Chris Godwin ($7,800) who provide different roles for this offense. Evans is more of the deep threat and carries a better relationship with Baker who loves the deep ball. My only slight concern is if you want to get Diggs + Allen and possibly Baker it will be very tough to get Evans as well. Also the Bills don’t allow the highest ADOT for WR catches which makes me lean Godwin who is more of a possession receiver anyways. They both take up nearly 60% of the WR target share. Neither of them has a specific CB matchup to look at because they move around the lineup and in the slot all the time. If you can fit Evans I think I like his ceiling and leverage more, but Godwin fits easier and is due for a big game. Trey Palmer ($4,200) is getting close to 65% of the snaps and plays mostly out of the slot. He will see a lot of Taron Johnson who is playing at a pro-bowl level this week. I like the talent but don’t really like him for tonight at this price. He does make for solid leverage. The last two WRs getting any run are Deven Thompkins ($1,600) and Rakim Jarrett ($200). I actually like Thompkins who has 3+ targets in 4 straight games and is being somewhat used in the run game. He is a great tournament play tonight. Jarrett I would probably fade. He just doesn’t get enough volume. You also have Cade Otton ($3,000) who is playing on nearly 100% of the snaps and is seeing a volatile target share. Some games he sees 5+ and others it is lower. The Bills defense doesn’t allow a lot of TE production so this might be one of his quieter games, but it is tough to predict. I wouldn’t go to either of the backup TEs Ko Kieft ($200) or Payne Durham ($200) who barely get any snaps or volume as is, but will see the field in spurts tonight. As for the backfield, Rachaad White ($8,000) is quietly getting a huge volume share but hasn’t been efficient with it. Teams have been able to run on the Bills which makes me like him and he isn’t drawing much ownership which is even better for tournaments. His real value is in the passing game. The Bills allow a LOT of RB targets which falls directly in line with what White is good at so count me in on him tonight. Right now Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($600) is the only other RB getting snaps but nothing more than a few carries a game and no receiving work. I wouldn’t go there.
DST and K
I don’t typically have much interest in kickers or DSTs and just take the L if they become optimal. I still feel the same way about them tonight. Neither Tyler Bass ($5,200) or Chase McLaughlin ($4,600) stand out to me with the new price bump on kickers. I like them more when they were in the high $3,000/low $4,000 range not up another tier. If I had to choose one it would be Bass due to the Bills having a higher implied total. The DSTs are atleast cheaper and both have some upside given Josh Allen is turnover prone and Baker has thrown an INT in 4 straight games. However, both offenses are very solid at not allowing sacks, so any sort of scoring will nerf the DST scoring as well. I wouldn’t go to either of the Bills DST ($4,400) or Bucs DST ($3,600), but I would prefer Bills if I was forced to play one.
My Narratives
Josh Allen > everyone
Godwin > Evans
White > Cook
My punts would be Thompkins or Gilliam
Pick one of Diggs or Gabe Davis
Kincaid is very close to being a lock
Bills 4/2 or 3/3 builds
Bills win 30-20
