NFL - Week 7 Chalk and Pivot Report
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
**All article updates, injury news, cores and additional slate tips/strategies will be posted exclusively in the Discord or Twitter so feel free to join or follow!**
For more top quality content, be sure to check out our friends over at FantasyTeamAdvisors! They produce weekly content for just about any sport you can think of as well as educational pieces on how to play DFS the right way!
Check out their NFL Week 7 Complete Breakdown video NOW!
With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300)
With just about every other game on the slate featuring a low implied game total and the KC/LAC game outpacing everything else by a good margin, I do think the MVP himself Mahomes will come in as a popular play. We already have some injury news and value opening up to allow for an expensive QB and Mahomes is in the best spot possible. It might be tough to stack him sometimes due to his WRs being so unpredictable, but at the end of the day the Chargers are allowing the most passing yards/game this season at just under 300 yards which Mahomes can probably beat easily. I expect him to hit the 300 yard bonus and have a field day against this defense. There might not be a better spot for him all season.
Pivot: Josh Allen ($8,200)
Matthew Stafford ($6,500)
While he might have underperformed last week, that was mostly due to Kyren Williams just going bananas in the second half and the team not needing to let Stafford make all the plays. Well, Kyren and his backup are both out this week. They face a porous pass defense in the Steelers that allows the 8th most pass yards/game and allows WRs specifically to have the 3rd highest fantasy scoring output this season. I think they just let Stafford and his weapons handle things this week considering they might not have any sort of run game. He might have expensive stacking options, but the volume will go to exclusively those guys and the ownership on the RB situation could make he chalky, but decent leverage as well against a good portion of the field. You get the best of both worlds with Stafford this week.
Pivot: Geno Smith ($6,000)
Jordan Love ($5,800)
I can’t believe I am saying this after his performances the last few weeks, but Love is getting a ton of ownership talk this week. Everyone sees the terrible defense he is about to face and expect him to bounce back. Given the price tag it is understandable. My current judgement on him is he is bad chalk and here is why. I think the coaches are not going to want him to handle all of the offense and will let Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon do a majority of the work. Denver is allowing the most rush yards/game in the league this season with 172.3 yards/game and the next highest is almost 30 yards behind. Love is also hard to stack with a plethora of guys all getting love from him (pun intended). I see the path but I just don’t think it will come to fruition.
Pivot: Sam Howell ($5,500)
Other Considerations:
Justin Herbert ($7,800)
Lamar Jackson ($7,600)
Desmond Ridder ($5,200)
Chalk RBs:
Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
I will say I don’t know if he gets too much ownership, but he has a cupcake/get right matchup against the Bears and gets easily around 30 touches every week. What more could you ask for. He hasn’t looked the best this year but you can’t discount the volume. I think the numbers are a bit skewed for Chicago who doesn’t allow many rush yards/game. The issue is they haven’t faced a solid RB all year except Aaron Jones Week 1 who went for like 25 DK points on them with just 10 touches. The Raiders should be able to get a lead and hold which will lead to plenty of Jacobs work. Regardless of ownership, I like him a lot this week.
Pivot: Bijan Robinson ($7,300)
Kenneth Walker IV ($7,000)
He faces one of the worst teams in football and is a TD magnet. I would be shocked if he didn’t fall into the endzone once again facing the Cardinals who have allowed the 9th most rush yards/game and T4th most rush TDs this season. I think he has one of the safest floors on the slate and the game script should cater to him getting plenty of late action unless it really gets out of hand and they let Charbonnet get some work. The thing is he picked up an injury and was a DNP for most of the week so he could end up sitting. Everything is lining up for Walker to have another big week.
Pivot: Aaron Jones ($6,800)
Zach Evans ($4,000)
This could end up being the chalkiest play on the slate. With Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers both out, Evans is slotted to be the starting RB at the flat min this week against a team that isn’t good. The Rams should get a lead and there is no reason given the circumstances they don’t give Evans a big workload to see what he has got. He makes everything work in your lineup and allows for plenty of studs to be had. Unless the Rams come out and say that they will go to a committee approach I just don’t see him failing this week. The script could definitely involve them getting an early lead then churning out the clock with Evans.
Pivot: D’onta Foreman ($4,800)
Other Considerations:
Austin Ekeler ($8,600)
Saquon Barkley ($8,100)
James Cook ($6,400)
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300)** If Craig Reynolds is OUT
Isiah Pacheco ($6,100)
Brian Robinson ($5,800)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600)
Rachaad White ($5,100)
Chalk WRs:
Keenan Allen ($8,600)
I think this is where a lot of people go to get a high volume option from the LAC/KC game. His floor is almost 20 DK points and the ceiling is slate breaking. His target share is unbelievably high and everyone expects a big game from him. Well, I am going to side with this being bad chalk. Yes he could make me eat my words, but the matchup is one of the worst on the slate for the pay up options against Trent McDuffie who is playing at an All-Pro level this season. The Chiefs defense overall is allowing the 6th fewest pass yards/game this season and the return of Ekeler could mean they let him be the big volume guy this week. That is the smarter path anyways to keeping Mahomes off of the field. I really don’t like him and his ownership this week.
Pivot: Cooper Kupp ($9,500)
Christian Watson ($5,600)
With the Jordan Love chalk comes some sort of GB receiver chalk and everyone wants to be early on the party for Watson. He has returned from injury with back to back solid weeks but nothing crazy. Denver does allow the 3rd most pass yards/game this season so the matchup is solid for him. Surtain hasn’t been shadowing this season so that shouldn’t be an issue and we all know Watson can take the top off of a defense. I do actually like him, but more as a one off piece. The Love/Watson stack will be popular this week with the insanely cheap price tags on both and the upside they bring.
Pivot: Terry McLaurin ($5,400)
Drake London ($5,100)
I never thought I would say London is a chalk play any week of his early career but here we are. He has been exceptional the last few weeks and Arthur Smith is finally getting away from just running the ball regardless of game script. He has 21 targets the last two weeks and Ridder has also looked half way decent. Given he was apart of the Milly winning lineup last week and only getting a $300 price increase, I think a lot of the field chases him this week. The Bucs have given up the 7th most pass yards/game this season while giving up the 7th fewest rush yards/game. That recipe should cater to another pass happy week for the Falcons and hopefully London can repeat the performance.
Pivot: Marquise Brown ($5,300)
Rashee Rice ($4,700)
I could be completely wrong on the “Rice is chalk” take for this week but just about every show I have watched talks about the LAC/KC game being the “optimal” scoring environment and almost all of them say the same thing. Rice is the best WR and the best play in terms of value from that game. I do agree he is the best WR the team has and finally got a decent snap share boost to around 55%. Justin Watson got hurt and is expected to be out so Rice could get even more snaps. He is electric and Mahomes clearly likes him. While I think the price is a little steep for the target share, he could easily smash it against the worst pass defense in the league statistically with just a slight uptick in usage.
Pivot: Joshua Palmer ($4,800)
Other Considerations:
Stefon Diggs ($8,900)
Davante Adams ($8,200)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000)
Puka Nacua ($7,600)
Mike Evans ($7,100)
DK Metcalf ($6,800)
Jakobi Meyers ($6,200)
Amari Cooper ($6,100)
Tyler Lockett ($6,000)
Zay Flowers ($5,700)
Romeo Doubs ($4,900)
Josh Downs ($4,500)
Kendrick Bourne ($4,400)
Curtis Samuel ($4,000)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800)
Kadarius Toney ($3,800)
Darius Slayton ($3,700)
Chalk TEs:
Mark Andrews ($5,700)
Once again I will say TE ownership is always wonky so I don’t know if Andrews will be chalky or not, but the price is extremely fair for his upside and we all know he’s due for a big game here soon. He plays the Lions this week in what should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate and they also allow the 4th most TE targets and 5th most TE DK points/game this season. He has a great floor as a top passing option in BAL and the Lions also have allowed the fewest rush yards/game this season. Everything points to them having to throw the ball a lot more than usual and Andrews is still the prime target. I love him this week in all formats.
Pivot: Darren Waller ($5,000)
Gerald Everett ($3,800)
TE is typically a crap shoot but people are going to want to get exposure to the LAC/KC game and Everett is a very cheap way to do it. He is getting a decent number of targets and with the Chiefs having some very solid CB options to make it hard for Keenan and Josh Palmer, the Chargers will likely have to get other guys involved in unique ways which gives Everett a solid boost. People love chasing a decent performance and he scored last week. I don’t know if I personally love it, but he is cheap and gets you exposure to that game. The Chiefs do allow a good amount of TE yards so it does fit into the narrative as well.
Pivot: Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
This one is more of a gut feeling play, but it isn’t like Musgrave has been bad this season. He has 7+ targets in each of the last two games he has finished and now faces Denver who has allowed the most TE receiving yards and DK points this season. Love likes him as a safety valve and his price makes it easy to get to plenty of other pay up options. If you want to pay down for a TE this week, Musgrave would be my preferred option.
Pivot: Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Michael Mayer ($2,700)
This will 100% be the chalk TE option this week in the punt territory. His role is quickly growing, getting 81% of the TE snaps last week and finally got a solid target share last week with 6 targets and 12 DK points. He is dirt cheap and allows you to do just about whatever else you want with your lineup. Here is the catch: Davante Adams has 9 targets in the last two weeks and has already stated his frustration. What happens when he gets back to his normal 10-15 targets/game? It won’t come from Meyers or Jacobs that is for sure. Mayer might be the biggest bust candidate for anyone on the entire slate. Yeah he got 6 targets last week but that is more than he has this entire season. To me that screams outlier game and expect regression. I will say the Bears are bad against TEs so maybe he has a chance at getting there, but I will die on the “Mayer busts this week” hill.
Pivot: Cade Otton ($2,900)
Other Considerations:
Travis Kelce ($8,000)
Cole Kmet ($4,200)
Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
Dalton Kincaid ($3,100)
Dawson Knox ($2,900)
DST
Colts DST ($3,400)
Browns DST ($3,300)
Giants ($3,000)
Broncos ($2,600)
Patriots ($2,100)
