NFL - Saints vs. Jaguars Showdown Preview
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Check out their Saints vs. Jaguars SD video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
A lot hinges on the availability of Lawrence for this game and it is likely he is a game time decision. Given the location of the injury and it being a short week, I would assume he doesn’t play. However, he was a limited participant on Tuesday and probably needs to be a full participant on Wednesday for me to comfortably say he plays. With that said and looking at the dynamic of the slate, pricing is incredibly soft which makes it easier to balance your lineups. Looking at the stats, the one spot either defense is vulnerable is the Jags allow a lot of passing yards. Chris Olave ($13,500 CPTN) is affordable, warrants a massive target share and is in a cupcake matchup. What more could you want? He has double digit targets in 4 out of 6 games this year and everything lines up for him to be in a good spot. I love him for this game at CPTN or at UTIL if that is something you choose to do. The only thing is I would bet a lot of people also use him at CPTN, so be sure to get leverage at the UTIL spot in other ways. If you want to get some savings, his running mate Michael Thomas ($10,500 CPTN) is also cheap and the clear No. 2 in terms of target share and snaps. It is wild to me that he has yet to score fewer than 9.3 DK points this season but no more than 12.5 DK points. The consistency is big for him and the matchup is great. He also has 6+ targets in every game as well. The Saints move their receivers around a lot so he will see a lot of different coverages and run a vast route tree. I think one of these two guys is in for a big game. Just on volume alone, either of the RBs make perfect sense as well with Travis Etienne ($15,300 CPTN) and Alvin Kamara ($15,600 CPTN) both getting 20+ touches a game minimum regardless of game script. Both defenses are good against the run, but their ability out of the backfield will prop their floor up a ton. Those four would be my top choices with the others fitting better in the UTIL spot for me.
Saints
The Saints are 1 point favorites with a 20.5 point implied team total. I really don’t think the Jags matchup well for the Saints which makes me like this offense a good bit. Derek Carr ($8,800) is way too cheap in my opinion. Since Kamara’s return, he has scored 15 and 20 DK points. His presence alone makes it easier for Carr to operate. He has targets to throw to that can stretch the field in numerous ways. I just don’t see a path to him not being optimal tonight with the Jags defense allowing the 2nd most pass yards/game this season and it being a short week. Chris Olave ($9,000) and Michael Thomas ($7,000) are the clear #1 and #2 with 80% of the snaps or more. They get north of 50% of the team targets every week minimum and defenses have a tough time guarding both. I think one of the big things to getting this SD right will be picking the correctly between Olave and MT or if you need both. One is set up to have a big game which is why I like them at the CPTN spot. This defense can’t stop teams from abusing them through the air. My lean is towards Olave because he has atleast shown the ceiling. However he is $2,000 more expensive. It might turn into a coin flip before all is said and done. Then you have the speedster Rashid Shaheed ($5,000) who can take the top off of a defense and score some massive plays. The target share isn’t the highest though and if he doesn’t get a big play he busts in a big way. I think ownership will be fairly high with the casuals chasing his big play last week. Why I do still like him is he is the cheapest of the “regulars” who get volume and has big play upside to win you a GPP. That is what you look to target, but the ownership and floor do scare me. After that you have Keith Kirkwood ($200) who doesn’t have more than a single target in any game and only 1 catch on the season. Lynn Bowden Jr. ($200) is also getting some snaps but has yet to be targeted once. I wouldn’t go to either of those guys. The TE room is all over the place with Taysom Hill ($6,200) and Foster Moreau ($3,200) getting the majority of the work. Taysom finally got a lot of work last week with 8 targets out of no where. He hadn’t gotten more than 1 in a game all year. I don’t really know what to do with that information because it feels like a massive outlier and at this price the field will be all over chasing that. I would much prefer to go to Shaheed and hope he busts a big play. He will still be involved in the run game and he does seem to show up more in prime time games. I have never been a fan of Hill, but there is a path to him having a good game. I just wouldn’t expect him to get 8 targets again. Moreau I am more inclined to going to. He is cheaper, will be lower owned and has scored fairly well the last two weeks. There is a clear floor, but he doesn’t need you to do much and atleast he is on the field around 50% of the snaps. I think overall he is fine, but I won’t be jumping to fit him in lineup. We can’t forget to mention that old man Jimmy Graham ($600) is still lingering around. He plays about 10-20 snaps per game and might get a lucky red zone TD because they love him in NO. I won’t be going there, but if I woke up on Friday to see him in the optimal I wouldn’t be surprised at all. The backfield has exclusively become Alvin Kamara ($10,400) gets as much work as he can get (barring a blowout) and Kendre Miller ($1,800) will spell him from time to time to give him a breather. I am a bit concerned for Kamara because the Jags have allowed the 3rd fewest rush yards/game this season. However, you aren’t playing Kamara for his rushing upside. He catches so many passes out of the backfield and the Jags have allowed 5+ catches to RBs in 5/6 games this season with 11 to Moss + Taylor just last week. This is a really good spot for PPR Kamara to have a massive floor in the passing game. It really comes down to if he can outpace Etienne which there is a strong chance he could. Kendre Miller is a complete punt to me. I expect this game to stay closer and he is probably the 3rd rushing option behind Kamara and Taysom. I think he will get a couple of points and the price is nice, but the upside just isn’t there. That’s just about it for this team. No one else gets any snaps of worth.
EDIT: Jamaal Williams ($4,200) is projected to be active now. With that news I think he just takes the Kendre Miller role and Miller gets a DNP. I would not play Jamaal at this price.
Jaguars
I will preface this by saying I am writing this on Wednesday evening and am going to assume Trevor Lawrence ($9,600) will be playing. The Jaguars are 1.5 point underdogs with a 19.25 point implied team total. If TLaw is out, CJ Beathard ($8,600) will get the start and that might be a concern for most. I think my overall sentiment will be if Lawrence plays then everyone gets a slight bump. If he sits then the receivers get a slight downgrade in comparison to the Saints’ offensive weapons. The Saints defense is solid across the board and playing in New Orleans is never an easy task. They are top 10 in both rush yards and pass yards allowed/game, so nothing really stands out as a spot for the Jags to exploit. Travis Etienne ($10,200) is likely to get the most volume regardless of game script and has looked incredible this season. With Lawrence banged up (or having a backup QB starting), I expect them to try to lean on him to move the chains. The only real concern is the Saints have only allowed 1 rush TD on the year. If I don’t expect Etienne to fall into the end zone, the defense doesn’t allow a lot of rush yards and the game script might force them out of running it then why would I want to spend top dollar to play him? This could be his “come back down to earth” spot where he disappoints. The passing attack might also have a tough matchup, but one stands out to me. Christian Kirk ($8,000) plays out of the slot on 70% of the time and the Saints slot CB, Alontae Taylor, has been the one player teams have been able to exploit. Kirk outside of Week 1 has looked the part and Lawrence/Beathard might have to go to him more often with the matchup being favorable. He has 14+ DK points in 5 straight games with 6+ targets in each. At this elevated price, he might actually be under owned so I will be all over him in this one. Calvin Ridley ($8,400) will be the one to get the ownership with this cheap price tag. It is understandable with 7+ targets in 5/6 games this week and a higher implied ceiling than Kirk. However, he will see a good bit of Paulson Adebo or Marshon Lattimore and both of those guys have been very good this season. With Zay Jones out, he should maintain this target share, but I will take the leverage on Kirk who has a better matchup. After those two, it is really just Evan Engram ($5,800) who has been getting targets at an elite level for TEs this season. He isn’t getting a ton of yards, but when you get 7+ targets in 5 straight games and 10+ DK points in 4 out of the last 5 games you have to give him credit. At this price, I think he gets a lot of ownership and it is justifiable. I probably like him over Ridley and I see the argument for him at CPTN for salary relief purposes as well. I think the key to climbing the leaderboard and possibly winning will be correctly picking which one or two of these guys has the best games. I lean Kirk > Engram > Ridley, but could go a number of different ways. Now that we have 80% of the offensive volume covered, let’s look at the after thoughts in this offense. No Zay Jones leads me to believe Jamal Agnew ($400) will get WR3 snaps but there is no guarentee he even gets a target. I mean there was the Week 3 game against Houston where he got 5 targets and if that were to happen I think he is optimal. I am all for it as a punt option and there shouldn’t be much ownership going to him. The only issue is he is getting around 30% of the snaps. Week 3 he got 55% of the snaps. The team seems to want to go to more 2 TE sets which opens up Luke Farrell ($200) and Brenton Strange ($1,000) who saw around 50% of the snaps last week. Strange got lucky and got a TD which makes me think chasing him is a bad idea. He has been getting targets and they seem to want him to run more routes than Farrell. I think he is fine, but I won’t be trying to force him in by any means. Maybe this is the week Farrell gets lucky, but both of these guys are lottery tickets and have a better shot at giving us a 0 than any other outcome. Lastly, Tank Bigsby ($2,200), Elijah Cooks ($200) and Tim Jones ($200) will all see some snaps but nothing of worth. Bigsby has clearly been relegated to a lesser role and pretty much just spells Etienne to give him a breather. Cooks and Jones will get 10-15 snaps, but only Jones has a catch on the season and only 5 targets total (none since Week 4).
DST and K
They finally started adjusting K pricing up to the mid to high $4,000 mark if not higher. It makes it hard to justify the price, but with a projected low scoring game they could end up being useable. I would choose Brandon McManus ($4,800) for the slight savings and the Jags will still be able to move the ball well regardless of Lawrence’s absence or not. Etienne is playing at a high enough level he can get them down there. I just don’t know if they will convert on TDs against this defense well which could lead to some FGs. I want to like Blake Grupe ($5,200) but I just can’t justify it when Evan Engram is only $600 more and has a much higher ceiling. I doubt either kicker gets much ownership though so they make for good leverage. As for the defenses, I have a lot of intrigue for the Jaguars DST ($3,800). They are top 10 in the league in QB Hurry % and Blitz %. The Saints will be without both starting OTs and a backup tackle. Josh Allen should have a field day getting to the QB which could lead to plenty of sacks. We also know that Derek Carr is no stranger to making mistakes and turning it over. The price is cheap and things line up for them to score well even if they allow some scoring. The only way I would go to the Saints DST ($5,400) at this price is if Lawrence is out and even if he is and the ownership for them goes up I just can’t get there. They have weapons and are actually 2nd in the league in turnover differential. They are a great unit, but I do think they struggle to score on a DFS level.
My Narratives
I am pivoting to say Trevor Lawrence plays
Kamara > Etienne
Kirk > Ridley
I am playing Carr and living with the outcome
Olave > MT
I like playing Jaguars DST in unique ways
Saints 4/2 or 3/3 stacks
Saints win a low scoring affair 20-17
