NFL - Vikings vs. 49ers Showdown Preview
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
With injuries on both sides of the ball, there is plenty of value to be had so the optimal move will be to pay up at CPTN. My first thought with the 49ers being a generally better offense and the Vikings defense being middling at best, a 49er would be the favorable play at CPTN. With Deebo Samuel out for this game, Brandon Aiyuk ($16,200 CPTN) will fit in nicely as the WR1 with a heavy target share and is due for a ceiling game. The target conversion the last two games hasn’t been the best, but I can’t envision him getting fewer than 10 targets here unless SF just beats the breaks off of them early and things get out of hand. H very well could break the slate with Trent Williams doubtful and Kittle in more of a blocking role. Outside of Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey ($18,000 CPTN), there really aren’t any consistent targets. McCaffrey might actually be decent CPTN leverage with the injury tag looming all week and we don’t know if the coach speak is true that he will get a full workload. If that is to be the case then I would jump all over that. He is a walking 20+ DK points most weeks and I doubt he has 3 straight poor games after back to back middling weeks. With the Vikings allowing the 4th most rush attempts/game, I fully expect him to get a massive amount of volume in this game and is typically the optimal CPTN with softer pricing. This shapes up as a really good spot for him or even the backup RBs if things do get out of hand. If you want to be a bit more contrarian, I think playing a Viking at CPTN could be just what you are looking for. With the injury to JJ, volume will be confined to fewer guys. My preferred option would be Jordan Addison ($11,400 CPTN) who has shown a massive upside with 10+ DK points in 5/6 games this season. With him playing on nearly 85% of the snaps and a decent target share, he should be able to get you what you need and is cheap enough where you might only have to punt 1 UTIL spot vs. 2 if you do go with an expensive CPTN. I think one big factor as well will be the 49ers TE coverage is very solid which could mean a Hockenson bust game. This should be a throwing script for the Vikings so all of them could see a slight bump. There will be plenty of opportunities to get unique tonight even with these guys at CPTN, but going a different route could also prove to the smart move. This game could go a lot of different ways so picking a narrative and sticking with it will either vault you up the leaderboard or hold you back. Be flexible tonight is probably the best advice I can give.
Vikings
The Vikings are 7 point underdogs at home with an 18 point implied team total. Given the 49ers struggles last week, this game could go a few different ways. The first way is their defense will be pissed off they lost and come out and smack the Vikings in the mouth. The other narrative would be there is something go on and they struggle again. The only thing with that is the 49ers defense did fine last week. They still held the Browns to 19 points, forced a few turnovers and picked up a few sacks. They will apply a good amount of pressure to Kirk Cousins ($10,600) who doesn’t really show up in prime time games anyways so I don’t know if I want to even play him here. The 49ers have allowed the 9th fewest pass yards/game and won’t be facing any elite talents in the receiving game. If everyone just does there job, I think the Vikings are in for a long night. Just on volume alone, someone on the Vikings has to get there and my guess would be Jordan Addison ($7,600). Like I said above, he has big play ability and is priced fairly enough that you can fit him in with the 49ers pieces and still have a solid lineup. TJ Hockenson ($8,800) is pretty expensive and the 49ers don’t allow TE production much with elite LB play. In theory, regardless of the matchup the Vikings should be trying to get him the ball because without JJ he is definitely their best player. I just don’t think this is the best matchup. I didn’t think Etienne had the best matchup the other day and he made mince meat out of the Saints defense so anything is possible. I think from an ownership perspective he will get some ownership, but nothing crazy. I think he is a fine play, but more as a fill in at UTIL. I don’t think he is in a ceiling spot to be the optimal CPTN. The real wildcard will be KJ Osborn ($6,400). He is the defacto WR1 filling in for the JJ role, but he is far from putting up the same numbers. I just don’t know if he will be able to separate from this SF secondary and be productive. He is priced affordably and will get volume. It kind of comes down to which Viking will score and making sure you have them. Given he is running routes close to 100% of the pass plays and in on 90% of the snaps, he could definitely be the guy you need. I just don’t think he is that good. The last pass catcher really getting any love is Brandon Powell ($2,800) who is super cheap for the implied role. He is running on about 60-70% of the snaps and will get opportunities. He doesn’t need much at this price and was productive last week in JJ’s absense. I think he will get a ton of ownership and that might just be something you have to eat and take whatever he gets you. I like him even at the elevated ownership. As for the backfield, Alexander Mattison ($6,600) has separated himself as the bell cow. Playing on 70% of the snaps and getting 85% of the volume, Mattison will be needed tonight if they want to stay in this game. They won’t be able to abandon the run and just beat the 49ers throwing the ball. The only issue is the 49ers rush defense is elite, allowing the 3rd fewest rush yards/game this season. He could be a great leverage play with little to no ownership going to Mattison here. He is guarenteed volume and if they want to keep CMC from running all over them it would be wise to churn the clock and pray Mattison can keep drives going. The rest of the offense feels like you would just be getting cute. That includes all of CJ Ham ($200), Cam Akers ($1,800), Trishton Jackson ($200), N’Keal Harry ($200), Josh Oliver ($200) and Johnny Mundt ($200). I can see the argument for Akers and Oliver maybe. The only avenue for them being optimal would be either a lucky unpredictable TD or a complete blowout before the half even ends and both teams just go to backups. Even in that script they would be fighting with the other punts to viable since all of them would be playing snaps so that isn’t really viable. From a general perspective, I don’t hate Oliver cause atleast he is getting 10+ snaps and actually might luck into a TD, but it is a very bold move that maybe has a 5% chance of paying off.
49ers
The 49ers are 7 point favorites on the road with a 25 point implied team total. Any time one of these Super Bowl contending teams catches an early loss to a far superior team, things that next week usually get pretty bad and the Vikings are not a good team. I fully expect them to kind of do whatever they want with very few mistakes. That is the mentality contending teams should have and they won’t be looking past any team going forward. Brock Purdy ($10,200) did not look good last week, but the Cleveland defense at their best is a very good unit regardless of how poor they might have looked this past weekend. They gave Brock a lot of problems that I really didn’t expect given they have the 2nd lowest Blitz % in the league. Guess who Brock plays this week? Despite their vulnerabilities, the Vikings Blitz at an absurdly high rate being 1st in the league with a Blitz % of 57.2%. That is more than 10% points higher than 2nd place. With Trent Williams likely out, there is a lot of concern for how much time Purdy will have to throw. This could lead to a TON of dump offs to Christian McCaffrey ($12,000) and if he is going to be lower owned (than expected) I would go to that as much as possible. The injury might scare some people away, but it shouldn’t. Getting him into your lineups tonight should be a must. Deebo Samuel is also out, so Brandon Aiyuk ($10,800) will be getting a ton of attention from both Purdy and the defense. You have to spend your money somewhere and Aiyuk is likely to get the 2nd most volume on the entire slate. One factor that a LOT of people won’t look at is with the Vikings blitzing so much and Trent Williams out, George Kittle ($7,200) might be their defacto LT and barely run routes tonight. He will still get some volume so I don’t hate it, but I am expecting him to be more of a blocker tonight like he was last week. That means it is either CMC, Aiyuk or the other receiving options for tonight. I think by default, I want to get Purdy, Aiyuk and CMC, but the rest is where it gets tricky. The absense of Deebo means Jauan Jennings ($4,000) and Ray-Ray McCloud ($2,200) will be featured more. They played on 53% and 71% of the snaps respectively which is kind of odd. I expected Jennings to get more workload and it should settle around 60-70% each for tonight. It is kind of a crap shoot as to which will be productive because Jennings is more of a feature in the pass game, but McCloud gets some things drawn up for him in the run game. I lean McCloud for the savings and he played on more snaps. Both are fine though at ownership. They will get some ownership as the punts, but with a lot of the field going to 49ers DST and the kickers in a lower scoring game script, they can’t get steamed up too much. You also have Ronnie Bell ($1,000) who I think will get more of a snap share than last game. The only concern is again the Trent Williams injury means they go to more 2 TE sets and just 2-3 WRs. They run Kyle Juszczyk ($600) who is going to be out there atleast 50% of the snaps as well which just means it will be Aiyuk + 1 WR on nearly 50% of the plays and 2 WR sets on easily 70%+ of the plays. I just don’t know how much room there is for Bell to get run. I actually do like KJ a ton as leverage because regardless of his stature as a premier FB, no one really ever wants to play a FB on a SD slate. He can blank just as easily as he can have a TD. I do want to touch on the backfield. Elijah Mitchell ($5,600) and Jordan Mason ($5,800) on paper are just WAY too expensive. This game would have to get out of hand with like a 42-0 type of score at half for Mitchell or Mason to get an “optimal” amount of points. They will eat into each others’ snap share and might get 3-4 touches each. I prefer Mitchell because they were trying to work him back in last week. However, at this price they both seem like complete fades. If you think getting really cute is a good move (I would advise heavily against it), Charlie Woerner ($200) and Ross Dwelley ($200) will get some snaps but more in a blocking role. I wouldn’t go to them.
DST and K
I think there will be a lot of ownership to specifically the 49ers DST ($5,000) and the kickers. Everyone expects the defense to bounce back and dominate this week against an offense without their best weapon. I do see the appeal, but at that ownership and price I will be passing. The Vikings DST ($3,400) I actually have some appeal to. They blitz and get pressure at a top 10 rate in the league. That might be all they are actually good at. The 49ers without their best OL might give up some sacks and unless the 49ers score big which I don’t see happening with the injuries (CMC banged up and Deebo out) they should be fine. As for the kickers, I am not trying to pay top dollar for Jake Moody ($5,400), but he should score well tonight so I get the appeal. I actually think he is fine, but only if I can fit him in. From a pricing perspective, Greg Joseph ($4,400) is actually appealing. If the Vikings can manage to keep this close, I trust Kirk to atleast get the ball down the field and into FG position enough to give Joseph some chances.
My Narratives
CMC > everyone
Kittle is fade for me
Powell > McCloud
I am close to fading Kirk, but don’t let that deter you from playing him. I think he gets garbage time work
Hockenson > Addison > Osborn because of Hockenson’s volume
Aiyuk isn’t a must, but I like him a lot
4/2 49ers or 3/3
49ers win 24-14
