NFL - Week 6 Chalk and Pivot Report
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
**All article updates, injury news, cores and additional slate tips/strategies will be posted exclusively in the Discord or Twitter so feel free to join or follow!**
For more top quality content, be sure to check out our friends over at FantasyTeamAdvisors! They produce weekly content for just about any sport you can think of as well as educational pieces on how to play DFS the right way!
Check out their NFL Week 6 Complete Breakdown video NOW!
With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600)
The Panthers defense is just dreadful due to injuries especially in the secondary. They numbers are a bit skewed due to facing numerous poor passing teams, but that is going to change this weekend. The Dolphins are going to be without De’Von Achane which could make it so they throw a bit more. Tua is easy to stack with even if it is expensive, but the run backs are a lot cheaper so it makes it easier to fit. The Dolphins have the highest implied team total on the slate so you are going to want pieces from this game. I think a lot of people just stack up on this condensed offense and find value elsewhere.
Pivot: Jalen Hurts ($8,200)
Kirk Cousins ($7,100)
Yes he might be without his top receiver in Justin Jefferson, but that doesn’t mean this team won’t throw the ball a ton and he now has cheaper stacking options that make it so you can get to some of the other higher priced options. He is facing the 2nd worst pass defense in the league who actually aren’t too bad at stopping the run and the Vikings defense is prone to let Justin Fields go crazy in this one. A high pace environment with lots of scoring and not too expensive stacking options is exactly what you need for chalk pieces to emerge and that is what we have with Cousins and Co. this week.
Pivot: Trevor Lawrence ($6,500)
Joe Burrow ($6,300)
Another high pace game with plenty of scoring to be had. The Bengals finally turned it on last week and it was due to Burrow and Chase’s play. They finally showcased the talent they have and Burrow looked healthy doing it. He was mobile and actually threw a decent deep ball. This might be a bit more expensive of a stack with Chase and the run backs being a bit pricier, but it will likely be worth it. Neither defense is any good and the Seattle secondary is allowing the 3rd most passing yards/game in the league this season and their rush defense is currently 6th best. Perfect set up for Burrow and his passing options to pop off for another big game.
Pivot: Matthew Stafford ($6,100)
Other Considerations:
Justin Fields ($7,300)
Geno Smith ($5,700)
Gardner Minshew ($5,000)
PJ Walker ($4,000)
Chalk RBs:
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100)
I think if people are going to be spending up, it will be to get Etienne. The Colts rush defense is in the bottom half of the league and allows a good amount of TDs as well. They always seem to be in tight games which should keep Etienne on the field. He has been playing like a top 5 RB this season and is priced accordingly to fit that narrative. I think people chase the big game from last week and rightfully so. His involvement on the ground and in the pass game is something only a few RBs in the league possess right now.
Pivot: Bijan Robinson ($7,200)
Alvin Kamara ($6,800)
His involvement in this offense since his return is up there with the likes of CMC this season. He has touched the ball 20+ times in each contest with 18+ DK points in both with just 1 TD to his name. Last week he probably would have been used more if it weren’t for the blowout. Given these factors and the fact that he faces a rush defense that has allowed 100+ yards and the 4th most rush TDs this season, this feels like a no brainer spot for Kamara to be chalky. The only thing keeping him from being mega chalk is a lot of the priced up RBs are in a good spots.
Pivot: Josh Jacobs ($7,000)
Kenneth Walker IV ($6,700)
Walker faces the 2nd worst rush defense in the league this week in the Bengals who are allowing 150+ yards and just under a TD/game to RBs on the season. Walker has been playing fantastic this season with big games left and right. With the Bengals being another popular stack this week, a favorable run back for some is looking to be Walker so this will likely boost his ownership. He is primed for another huge game since it seems like the best move would be to keep the ball out of Burrow’s hands and just ground and pound to keep it close which is perfect for Walker. He just checks all of the boxes this week for what you want out of a RB play.
Pivot: Kyren Williams ($6,500)** Also chalky
Raheem Mostert ($6,400)
Here lies the mega chalk play of the week. Without De’Von Achane, it is expected that Mostert gets back to a full workload and he was crushing it in that spot earlier this season before Achane’s arrival. The Panthers defense is allowing the 7th most rush yards and most rush TDs/game this season which is very positive for Mostert. I think most people have seen what this rush offense has done over the last few weeks and think that Mostert can do it all. He will still split some time with Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed returning as well as the emergence of Chris Brooks as a young RB that has shown promise. Regardless, Mostert is likely to be a big hit this week in an easy matchup with the highest implied team total on the slate and a massive spread.
Pivot: D’Andre Swift ($6,100)
Other Considerations:
Christian McCaffrey ($9,500)
Joe Mixon ($6,300)** Will also be chalky
Breece Hall ($6,000)
Rachaad White ($5,500)
D’Onta Foreman ($4,400)** Will also be chalky
Chuba Hubbard ($4,300)** Will also be chalky
Chalk WRs:
JaMarr Chase ($8,300)
He is in another great matchup against a Seattle pass defense that is currently allowing the 3rd most pass yards/game this season. Chase busted for 50 DK points last week and was really the only guy Burrow was looking too. He really is open every play like he talked about in that locker room press conference. The field is likely to go right back to him here even if Tee Higgins plays. That might just take some attention away from him and there is always the chance that Higgins is used as a decoy (which has happened in the past). Everything is set up for Chase and Burrow to have another massive game and the current projected ownership speaks to that.
Pivot: Puka Nacua ($8,000)
Jordan Addison ($5,700) and KJ Osborn ($4,400)
This one seems like an obvious with Justin Jefferson out. These two are both going to be in line for most snaps, targets and routes run and they face a terrible Chicago pass defense that is allowing the 2nd most pass yards/game this season. I think you pick one and roll with them if you aren’t game stacking and if you are there is nothing wrong with going to both in a Cousins’ stack. Ownership on these guys is going to be through the roof and I really think it is warranted. My personal preference is to pay down on Osborn to get up to some of the pricier RBs on the slate, but Addison’s big play ability and finally getting a bigger role could lead to his emergence this week. Both are in great spots nonetheless and warrant ownership.
Pivot:
Addison -> Tyler Lockett ($5,700)
Osborn -> Josh Downs ($4,100)
Adam Thielen ($5,900)
This offense seems to want to get Thielen the ball in bunches every week. This is the 4th straight week for him receiving 8+ targets and TDs in the 3 of those 4 games. Garbage time is his sweet spot and boy are the Panthers in a good spot to get a lot of that this week. Their defense can’t stop a nose bleed and they face the Dolphins who can burn them in so many ways. With that Miami stack being a popular pick this week, the one guy that anyone is going to run it back with would be Thielen. He isn’t too expensive and grades out a lot better than some other guys in this price range. They just seem to want him to be the focal point of this offense and is in a good game script to feed him the ball more this week.
Pivot: Jakobi Meyers ($5,800)
DJ Moore ($6,500)
Everyone loves to chase a big game the week prior and that is what we have with Moore this week. It is fitting though that he is in a good matchup against Minnesota who is also chalky and has given up the 11th most pass yards/game and 5th most receiving TDs/game this season. He is just so electric and I bet the Panthers are wishing they had just stayed put on their trade with Bears. He is towards the top of league in numerous receiving metrics and his role is only going to grow with both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert unlikely to play this weekend. You can pair him with Fields or use him as the run back in the mega chalk Cousins stacks, but regardless of ownership he is in a great spot this week. Just don’t expect 50+ DK points again haha.
Pivot: Calvin Ridley ($6,700)
Other Considerations:
Tyreek Hill ($9,300)
Cooper Kupp ($9,000)
AJ Brown ($7,800)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
Devonta Smith ($7,000)
Chris Godwin ($6,900)
Michael Pittman ($6,300)
Christian Kirk ($5,400)** Also chalky
Marquise Brown ($5,300)** Also chalky
Tyler Boyd ($4,600)** If Tee Higgins is OUT
DJ Chark ($4,000)
Curtis Samuel ($3,800)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,600)** If DK Metcalf is OUT
Jonathan Mingo ($3,500)
Chalk TEs:
TJ Hockenson ($6,600)
This man is about to be peppered with targets with Justin Jefferson out. He is the only guy I am certain should see more volume over the next couple of weeks. He gets an easy defense to go against in the Bears who have allowed the 8th most TE DK points this season. He was already one of Kirk’s favorite targets and now should be a safety valve at all times to help move down the field. He will likely come in as one of the highest owned TEs towards the top with LaPorta pulling a DNP on Thursday with a calf injury. This is certainly a don’t get cute type of play that could break the slate if everything goes his way.
Pivot: George Kittle ($5,000)
Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
He is coming off of a breakout game and has another good matchup against the Jets who have allowed the most TE DK points this season. Sauce is going to have his clamps on one of Devonta Smith or AJ Brown most of the game which leads me to believe they focus on getting Goedert the ball again. The spot is just picture perfect for him. The only concern for me is that the Jets give up a ton of rush yards/game this season. If this game gets out of hand quickly we could see them run the ball 40+ times this game and have Hurts only throw it 20-25 times like we saw against Minnesota in Week 2. Nonetheless, ownership is definitely going his way this week and for a good reason. The Jets just can’t stop TEs this season.
Pivot: Evan Engram ($4,500)
Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Thomas is emerging out of the TE wasteland depths with a big performance against Chicago last week. He is priced cheap once again and faces a bottom 3 TE defense that funnels the highest % of points to TEs this season (2nd in DK points to TEs allowed). He has become a good safety valve for Howell this season who isn’t really stretching the field much. I expect them to feature him once again this week with the Falcons having a top notch rush defense. He should see a favorable target share in a good matchup.
Pivot: Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Other Considerations:
Sam LaPorta ($5,600)** If he is active and not limited
Cole Kmet ($4,600)
Dalton Schultz ($3,600)
Kyle Pitts ($3,500)
Hayden Hurst ($3,100)
Drew Ogletree ($2,600)
DST
49ers ($4,000)
Jaguars ($3,400)
Seahawks ($3,000)
Texans ($2,900)
Buccaneers ($2,300)
