NFL - Chiefs vs. Broncos Showdown Preview
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
Let’s just make this short and sweet. I don’t see an avenue AT ALL where a Broncos is in the CPTN spot. Pricing doesn’t matter for me. I am going to be paying up Patrick Mahomes ($19,200 CPTN), Travis Kelce ($16,500 CPTN) regardless of health or Isiah Pacheco ($14,100 CPTN). That is literally it for me. Mahomes has the highest ceiling on the slate and does have weapons to throw to even if they can’t seem to catch at times. He has had a bit of an off year, but maybe that will draw some people off of him. Kelce’s injury might also draw some people away at the CPTN spot atleast which could make it a decent leverage spot. He still came back last game and put up a solid performance and the injury being a lower ankle sprain makes me believe it is a pain tolerance thing. They will give him a cortisone shot and he will be all good. Now, most of the field is going to go after Pacheco here. He faces the worst rush defense in the league that has allowed a staggering 187 rush yards/game. They have allowed 5 guys to rush for over 100 yards or multiple TDs against them in the last 4 games (Breece Hall, Khalil Herbert, De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Brian Robinson). I think this is a smash spot for him and will carry atleast a 12 DK point floor. If you want to get contrarian, I could see an avenue for Jerick McKinnon ($7,800 CPTN) to get there if it is actually a closer game than the field thinks. He has scored 5 TDs against the Broncos in the last 3 games he has played against them. I don’t like chasing TD history stats (unless it is Boston Scott against the Giants), but he seems to like playing them. His touches are always going to be a concern though with only averaging 4 touches/game this season. If the Broncos can get lucky and maybe get out to a lead somehow, they could look to McKinnon to help move it down the field more than they have the last few games. I could also see a route where one of the odd ball WRs for the Chiefs gets there at CPTN because they are cheap, but good luck predicting which it will be. That is my narrative, I am sticking too it and regardless of ownership I think you should follow it.
Chiefs
The Chiefs are a whopping 10.5 point favorites at home this week with a staggering 28.75 point team implied total. I am locking in Patrick Mahomes ($12,800) and living with the outcome. He is still the best QB in football and against this putrid Broncos defense he should be able to do just about whatever he pleases. I like to pair him with Travis Kelce ($11,000) in SD as it gives you the highest ceiling and just finding the value elsewhere. He might be hurt, but that isn’t really stopping him. He put up 10/67/1 last week even dealing with an ankle injury. This Broncos defense has allowed the 6th most TE DK points/game this season and really hasn’t faced a single decent TE. This could be the week where the stars align and Kelce has a big game. Now, pairing him with Mahomes is expensive, but I think there is enough value you can mix and match to still have them in the optimal lineup. I just don’t think I will get away from it. Even if it might be difficult, I think you have to also roll with Isiah Pacheco ($9,400) who is in the biggest smash spot of any RB this entire weekend. Everyone feasts against Denver, but RBs get the first crack at the spread. They are just that bad at stopping the run and can’t really defend it at all this weekend when Mahomes can beat them through the air. I could see this being a spot where they just say screw it we have to let Pacheco beat us and do heavy coverage defensive schemes. Not to mention he has had double digit DK points and 15+ touches in each of the last 3 games. There are just so many paths for all 3 of these guys to get there. I will try to have all 3 in all of my lineups tonight. Now we get to the gray area of the Chiefs. Who the heck is going to produce outside of Pacheco and Kelce because it seems to be a crap shoot every other week. I am just going to go in order of pricing which leads me to Rashee Rice ($6,400). The pros for him are he gets targets, especially in the red zone with 5+ targets in 4/5 games this season. Mahomes is keying in on him often when it matters and has built a repertoire with him that could vault him into the WR1 spot before the season ends. The cons are in terms of snap share he is the WR4/5 so he isn’t out there too often. He also is 2nd in dropped target % this season ahead of only one of his teammates which we will get to in a bit. I think he is fine, but if you want all of Kelce/Mahomes/Pacheco you are going to have to full punt the last two spots or run Rice as the CPTN which could work, but the floor is minimal and the ceiling with the number of plays he runs is risky. Next up is Skyy Moore ($5,400) who is technically running as the WR1 in terms of snaps, but the targets are few and far between with just 4 targets in the last 2 games. He does have some big play upside which is why I might like him more than Rice, but being $1,000 cheaper is also factoring into that. I am very leery on the target share though which is low for a WR1. Then you get Kadarius Toney ($4,000) who is much cheaper than the above guys and has big play upside, but is playing as the defacto WR5. The real positive is that he finally got a healthy number of targets last game with 6 and seems to have figured out the drop problem (no drops since Week 1). I really like him in this spot. They seem to want to get him the ball and maybe they can get him on the field more in a blowout. All he needs is one big play and at this price he is likely optimal. Speaking of a big play option, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,400) also can blow the top off of a defense. He runs as the WR2 and sometimes WR1 in terms of snaps, but the targets are just not there this season. He hasn’t gotten more than 3 in a game this season. I still like him because the law of averages suggests he is due with a couple big plays every season. He is a downfield threat that only needs one which I love for GPPs. Lastly, Justin Watson ($2,200) could be what we are looking for to make the Mahomes/Kelce/Pacheco stack work. He is dirt cheap, plays as the WR3 in terms of targets, is getting downfield looks at a better rate than MVS and has scored 6+ DK points in 4/5 games this season. The issue is his ceiling is looking like 10 DK points max, but at $2,200 do you even need more than that? He just shows up and does his job every week which seems to be working for him. I love him for cash so you can fit everything in, but in GPPs I just don’t know if the ceiling is there. After those guys, you can look to Noah Gray ($4,400) who is involved, but that price is just gross with Kelce playing. The only time he has eclipsed 3 targets was Week 1 when Kelce was out. I think they priced him expecting Kelce to possibly be out and he is going to play. If he magically pulls an Aaron Jones and is marked as inactive right before kickoff, he is likely to be a lock cash option and the best pair with Mahomes and Pacheco. I wouldn’t look to Blake Bell ($200) unless that above scenario happens. He hasn’t gotten a target with Kelce active. The backfield outside of Pacheco could be the ultimate leverage. Say we assume this is a blowout and they get up 21-0 early. What is keeping the Chiefs from just running Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($1,000) or Jerick McKinnon ($5,200) more and just keep Pacheco healthy? If the early scorers are Kelce, a random pass catcher and Mahomes runs one in, then I could see an avenue for Pacheco to fail. It is unlikely that truly happens as I think they lean on Pacheco to get the job done, but there is an avenue that I have to look at and put my personal bias aside for. In that Chicago came that was a blowout we did see CEH get 15 touches on the ground which is why I think they both can get there. He had 12 DK points and Pacheco had 15 DK points in that game. If it shapes out how all of the angles point towards, I actually see a narrative where they do it again and both are needed in the optimal lineup. CEH will be far lower owned though so he makes for a good GPP play. I also have some interest in McKinnon because he does show up for the Denver matchup every year with 5 receiving TDs in the last 3 games against them. Those games were a lot closer though which leads me to believe that he won’t be used much tonight. He does make for massive leverage at CPTN as well as UTIL if it stays closer than Vegas is thinking.
Broncos
The Broncos are 10.5 point underdogs with a measly 18.25 point implied team total tonight. If you want leverage on the field, just play multiple Broncos. I think the likely build will be a 5/1 or 4/2 Chiefs stack for almost 70% of the field if not higher. It just makes the most sense. Going to a 3/3 or 4/2 Broncos stack is something almost no one is going to do and will be huge if it actually pans out. Russell Wilson ($9,600) has quietly been solid this season. Yeah they haven’t been winning but he looks more elusive than last year. It really comes down to can he outscore Pacheco at a similar price and I see no reason that he can’t. He has some weapons in Jerry Jeudy ($9,000) and Courtland Sutton ($7,800) who are getting 85% of the snaps each every week. The only issue is this is a really bad matchup with both L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie playing at Pro-Bowl levels this season and where Sutton and Jeudy line up they will get heavy dosages of both. They each have a solid target share which is nice, but I would probably lean Sutton if you need the savings and Jeudy for the ceiling. I think Jeudy is due for a big game but “thinking” isn’t what we are looking for. Nothing about this matchup makes me think that any Broncos is going to have a ceiling game. The Chiefs defense has quietly been great this season and pretty much the reason they are 4-1. After those two it gets confusing as to how they will be used. Brandon Johnson ($1,200) is playing as the WR3 in terms of snaps but barely gets targeted and it looks like he has used a lot of his scoring luck this season with 3 TDs already. It is fine for GPPs, but I certainly won’t endorse him. I just think it is about time Marvin Mims ($4,600) takes over his spot and has another big game. He has the speed to make big plays downfield and is priced low enough that he can easily beat the other Chiefs WRs to be optimal even with 1 or 2 catches. The issue is he only plays currently on around 30% of the snaps and his target share has been coming down. He fumbled last week which might have in the dog house so I don’t know if they give him more plays when that fumble was costly in a close game. Lastly, Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($200) is getting a few snaps/game, but only has 5 targets all season and just 1 since Week 2. I wouldn’t go there. As for the TE group, with Dulcich out, Adam Trautman ($2,800) is playing on 90% of the snaps and finally had a big game last week with 5 targets, 4 catches for 26 yards and a TD. At this price I don’t see how he fails you. With the Chiefs secondary being able to slow down Jeudy and Sutton, they will likely have to feed Trautman targets again and the pass happy script they are expected to have to go to can only help Trautman. He is probably my favorite punt on the slate, not just from the Broncos. In 5/1 Chief stacks, the likely play will be to go down to Trautman so I could see ownership on him coming in a touch higher than expected. I will personally be looking past that because he is a good play tonight. The Chiefs have allowed the 7th most TE yards this season so Trautman is likely to carry that big game last week into this week. The last thing to talk about is the Broncos backfield who could be in for some issues. First off, Javonte Williams ($7,200) is 1 week removed from injury and will likely not be thrust into a ton of work. He was getting a fair share of targets which could carry into this one with them needing to pass. I just think they signed Samaje Perine ($5,000) to fill that role in the offseason and will use him in 2 minute drill + passing plays. It also helps that he is healthy. In this script, I think Perine could be the answer for them to keep Javonte healthy on a short week. A lot of the field thinks that Jaleel McLaughlin ($7,000) is that guy, but Javonte coming back and his pass blocking skills being really really bad makes it hard for me to get to him here. They are going to have to throw a lot tonight and Perine is better in that facet of the game. I am really interested in Perine tonight in GPPs for those reasons. If I had to rank them, it would be Perine > Williams > McLaughlin. I have finish off by saying Chris Manhertz ($200), Michael Burton ($200) and Nate Adkins ($200) will all see some snaps, but nothing of worth. I could actually see Adkins being somewhat viable with a singular target in each of the last 3 games, but only if you are running 150 lineups and in 2-3 lineups max. The rest are complete fades for me.
EDIT: Greg Dulcich ($3,200) is now projected to play. That really nerfs Trautman for me. I like Dulcich in GPPs and you can full fade Adkins and Manhertz now. They won’t get much run at all.
DST and K
Don’t play the Broncos DST ($3,000). They are truly dreadful outside of Patrick Surtain. He can’t do it all by himself. I think some of the field will look to play Chiefs DST ($5,600) with a lot of people thinking they are just that bad. In reality the offense hasn’t been the issue and at that price with the ownership I would fade them. Garbage time scoring for the Broncos could be a real issue in this one for Chiefs DST owners. As for the kickers, in lower scoring affairs they are usually more usable. I think Will Lutz ($4,200) does have a safe floor with 7+ DK points in 4 straight games. The Chiefs defense is good, but you can move the ball on them. I think the only scoring from Denver very well could come from Lutz so I think he is fine. As for Harrison Butker ($4,800), he is slightly more expensive for a kicker than I would be liking to pay, but the Chiefs could seriously score 50+ points tonight and even if they are just TDs, he could get 6+ just from XPs easily. Ks and DSTs are so hard to predict so it is tough to have a lean one way or another.
My Narratives
Stack Kelce/Mahomes/Pacheco and get different elsewhere
Perine > Williams > McLaughlin
Toney > Watson > MVS > Moore > Rice
I might just lock in Adam Trautman and live with the result
Play a kicker, but not both
Chiefs 4/2 stack or 3/3 stack for leverage
Chiefs win comfortably 42-24
