NFL - Chargers vs. Cowboys Showdown Preview
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Check out their Chargers vs. Cowboys Showdown video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
Pricing is shockingly cheap tonight, so getting to a top priced CPTN is going to be a priority for me. There are a few options, but one stands out for me at that would be CeeDee Lamb ($13,500 CPTN). The Chargers have allowed the most pass yards/game this season which should mean the Cowboys try to throw a lot tonight. Regardless of his start to the season, Lamb is still being heavily targeted when it matters. He is the cheapest of the “studs” and makes it easy to fit in a few other top priced options. We all know his talent and this is a good get right spot for the entire Cowboys offense against a struggling Chargers’ defense that is prone to getting beat and losing games for them. The next guy for me has to be Austin Ekeler ($16,800 CPTN) who might actually not be that highly owned at CPTN tonight. Coming off of an injury, that alone could scare people away who want to see him come back 100% before risking him up top instead of at UTIL. I still expect him to be a massive part of this offense with Mike Williams now out. I think Ekeler could have come back before the bye, but they used it to ensure 100% health so don’t expect much of a volume drop at all. He scored 30 DK points in the one game he played this year and I don’t think he even finished that contest. He checks every box you could want. Lastly, if you want to spend down a bit at the CPTN spot to have a more balanced build, you should have a lot of interest in Gerald Everett ($6,900 CPTN). The Cowboys just let George Kittle score 3 TDs against them last week and have a clear funnel for TEs to score well. He is getting the most TE snaps on this team and is due for a TD this year. With Williams out and Palmer now questionable, we could see him get a little bit larger target share and Ekeler coming back to take attention away from him could make it even better for him. Other than these guys, I have interest in studs and a few others, but more as UTIL plays.
Chargers
The Chargers are 1.5 point underdogs with a 24.75 point team implied total tonight. This team’s health will likely be their demise this season with Mike Williams getting hurt for the year, but atleast they get Austin Ekeler ($11,200) back for this contest. I think he is an excellent play tonight given the Cowboys just let SF run all over them last week and are allowing the 12th most rush yards/game on the season. Like I said in the CPTN section, his ownership could come in lower than expected being the most expensive play on the slate coming off of an injury. I still think he gets a big share, but it might not be as high as expected. I would try to get him in however you can. Then you have the passing attack led by Justin Herbert ($10,800) and most importantly Keenan Allen ($10,600) who could see a massive target share tonight with Joshua Palmer ($7,000) being added to the injury report yesterday. That is certainly something to keep an eye on, but more for the cheaper targets who could see a bump in his absense. Regardless, the Cowboys are very good against opposing passing attacks, allowing the 2nd fewest pass yards/game this season. That stat could keep Herbert’s ownership at bay for sure, but it is a concern. I actually could see him being not optimal tonight at that price and it really comes down to which of the top priced options scores the most. Herbert needs TDs to make him viable or the 300+ yard passing bonus to really prop him up over the others and the stats say he might not get there. He is a fine play just on volume alone, but I am a bit hesitant on him tonight. Keenan on the other hand I am fine on. He runs a lot out of the slot and should see a lot of Jourdan Lewis tonight who is prone to allowing yards. It just makes a lot more sense for the Chargers to balance the pass and run with Ekeler coming back to keep Pollard and Co. from having the ball which could lead to a slight drop off in Keenan’s absurdly high ceiling we have seen lately. In order, I prefer Ekeler > Keenan > Herbert. With those two guys taking up nearly 60% of the volume in this offense, it is tough to figure out who will get the rest. Palmer is one to really keep an eye on because if he is active then he could be massive leverage tonight. He is clearly the WR2 in this offense and should see a decent target share. He has seen 7+ targets in each of the last two games which is great and the Cowboys without Trevon Diggs should be more vulnerable against the pass. If he plays, I will be playing a lot of him to get some savings and leverage, but if he sits the following guys will all become very interesting plays for salary relief. Quentin Johnson ($4,200) is the clear WR3 currently with around 50% of the snaps, but couldn’t really gain much of a target share in his first game without Williams and in this new role. With Ekeler coming back, I just don’t know if it will change or grow. At this price, if Palmer plays I would probably come off of him for other plays in this price range, but he would be decent leverage. They spent really solid draft capital on him and will want to try to get him involved. If Palmer is out then he will be pretty massive chalk which makes me dislike him even more. I could see a serious avenue where Herbert still just leans on the guys he is used to throwing to in Ekeler, Keenan and the TEs to get the job done. After him it is a mix of Derius Davis ($1,400) and Keelan Doss ($200) with Davis playing on around 20% of the plays and Doss on around 10%. If Palmer plays, then just count Doss out for sure. I actually think Davis is interest regardless. They are trying to get him involved in both the pass and run game. He is an electric talent that can break a big play any time he touches the ball. I think he would slot in as the WR2 if Palmer is out in my opinion and would be nearly a lock for me in GPPs. I just don’t think many people are going to play him regardless and his upside is something you will want if you want to win a GPP (and not chop with 10+ people). The TE group is the real question mark. Week 4 they had 4 TEs play on more than 20% of the snaps which is unheard of. Gerald Everett ($4,600) is still my favorite getting plenty of targets and the snap share to get more opportunities. However, all of Donald Parham ($2,200), Stone Smartt ($200) and Tre McKitty ($200) will all see some sort of snap share tonight. With Parham being questionable, but a full go towards the end of the week of practice, I expect him to be full go and the TE2. He has been a solid red zone threat given his size so I like him tournaments if you opt to not go to Everett. I would probably fade Smartt unless Parham sits and McKitty probably won’t get enough work to be viable. Please don’t get cute and play any of the backup RBs in Joshua Kelley ($6,400) or Isaiah Spiller ($2,400) because I honestly think they have zero faith in either of them and will just get Ekeler 90% of the workload and snaps. For this offense, it is best to just keep an eye on the injury designation for Palmer because that could change things up a ton.
Cowboys
The Cowboys are 1.5 point favorites with a 26.25 point team implied total for tonight. Yes they have looked bad lately, but this is a really good spot to bounce back. The Chargers defense is not good, especially against the pass allowing the most pass yards/game this season. I am going to be locking and loading on Dak Prescott ($10,000) and CeeDee Lamb ($9,000) who a lot of people don’t have faith in currently. The spot is just set up perfectly for them and the comments made by Jerry Jones this past week have to have lit a fire under Lamb to prove he is the WR1 on this team and the guy this team should be featuring in the pass game. It is hard to bring up Cowboy data in general because they haven’t been in a competitive game all year (whether being blown out or blowing the opponent out). Lamb’s target share % is still incredibly high at well over 20%. It has been more about quality of target for him. I know Dak might have looked bad, but he should regress and lean on Lamb to get back on track. As for the rest of the passing attack, Michael Gallup ($2,800) is playing on 82% of the snaps but is priced like the WR3 on this team and an after though. It doesn’t make much sense to me and will likely lead to him being extremely chalky. He has 5+ targets in each of the last three games and is producing with 10+ DK points in 2 of those 3 games. I see no reason he can’t be productive again, but just beware the ownership is likely to be very high so fading him could be a solid move in large field tournaments. Then you have the more expensive Brandin Cooks ($5,400) who just hasn’t been the player most expected. He usually is pretty consistent, but this season has no more than 4 catches or 27 yards in a single game. It is weird and I think in a closer contest he gets featured more. This would be a very good spot to go to him as leverage because the talent isn’t gone. They just haven’t needed to use him in blowouts or Dak has been so bad that he can’t get anyone the ball. I still like him for the same reasons I like Lamb. The Chargers are just that bad at stopping opposing passing attacks. After that it is a mix of Jalen Tolbert ($200) and KaVontae Turpin ($1,600). I don’t like either of them because I expect this game to be closer and their roles were expanded on due to blowout scripts. I would lean Turpin if I had to choose because atleast they draw up creative plays for him and try to get him the ball. Tolbert should just be an afterthought. The TE room is essentially Jake Ferguson ($5,200) and Luke Schoonmaker ($200). Ferguson is the guy Jerry Jones wants to be featured, but I don’t think he will ever overtake as a true alpha in this offense. The Chargers haven’t been bad at stopping TEs so nothing screams he has a good matchup. I much prefer Cooks for essentially the same price at much lower ownership. People have a thing for wanting to play Ferguson and I do understand it. He has been productive with 7+ targets in 3/5 games this season and 9+ DK points in 3/5 as well. I think he is fine, but not jumping at the bit to play him. Schoonmaker would be the classic backup TE at no ownership who scores a lucky TD like Quentin Morris last night to become optimal. I just don’t like going there. He only has 1 catch this season and it was in Week 2. The backfield is mostly Tony Pollard ($9,600) even if the volume hasn’t been there recently. They have to get him more involved if they want to move the ball more efficiently and in more creative ways. It is almost as if they just took Zeke’s role from last year which was garbage and gave it Pollard. There is almost no creativity to it and that is the real concern. Pollard is 2nd to last this season only ahead of Zeke in broken tackle %. At this price, he for sure has to outpace Lamb and Dak who correlate with each other and almost certainly have to beat one of Keenan or Herbert. Not that he can’t do it, but he has been very underwhelming this season and the Chargers aren’t bad against the run. They do however allow more than 1 rush TD/game so the floor for Pollard should be there on volume and TD upside alone. Similar to Ferguson, Pollard is fine but I am looking to the other top priced options first over him. Rico Dowdle ($2,000) actually isn’t a bad shout because I think he gets some carries regardless of the score and is very cheap. If he were to get a goal line TD he could easily outpace the other cheap options who have literally zero point floors. I don’t think Dowdle has a zero point floor which does make him intriguing. Deuce Vaughn ($1,000) is a no for me who really needs a blowout to be viable.
DST and K
I am really against playing DST or Ks in high scoring affairs. However, this might be a spot I actually look to them for leverage. Almost no one is going to play a DST and on their day the Cowboys DST ($3,800) can score incredibly well. They are wayyy too cheap for the upside they provide when the Chargers are prone to some turnovers. I don’t usually like the Chargers DST ($3,200) given they really are terrible. However, Dak can make a college defense look good on some days when he just stinks it up. I actually think they make for decent plays tonight. The kickers I am less inclined to play with the high scoring nature this game could provide and there are cheap options that can score. If I had to choose one it would be Cameron Dicker ($4,400) who is much cheaper and the Dallas defense is probably going to get more red zone stops compared to LAC which will lead to a higher chance at FGs versus just XPs. Brandon Aubrey ($5,000) is just way too expensive and the Cowboys probably will be in better spots to score TDs which leads to more XPs, not FGs.
My Narratives
Dak bounce back game with Lamb the big benefactor
Cooks > Ferguson
Ekeler > Keenan > Herbert
Fading Pollard
Gerald Everett has a “Kittle-esque” performance
4/2 both ways or 3/3
Cowboys win 29-24
