NFL - Week 5 Top Plays
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Check out their Week 4 Stacks Article now!
With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QB Stacks:
Jared Goff ($6,300)
I am always a fan of QBs against this Panthers defense. Without Jaycee Horn, a banged up Donte Jackson and Xavier Woods and Frankie Luvu picking an injury as well, their defense that was supposed to be the teams strong suit is quickly becoming a liability. The numbers show that Carolina has been good against the pass, but they haven’t played anyone good other than Cousins and he only threw the ball 19 times in that game. The data is heavily skewed which might draw away some ownership. The Lions have the 5th highest implied team total of 27 points and growing. Goff also gets back an elite weapon in Jameson Williams to hopefully open up the field for others. There are plenty of ways you can stack Goff, but my preferred route would be to pair him with Amon-Ra and/or LaPorta. I think the biggest kicker for me is that David Montgomery is projected to be chalky this week. You can leverage that ownership by playing the passing side of this game which could vault you up the standings if it becomes a pass happy game script.
Daniel Jones ($5,800)
We all know this could end in disaster, as it has for Jones in 3/4 games this season. He gets to play the Dolphins this week who will be looking to bounce back after the Bills embarrassed them last week. The Giants will certainly be in a passing script and one big thing that stands out for me is that in a clean pocket Daniel Jones has a top 5 completion %. The Dolphins only pressure the QB on around 20% of pass plays this season. IF, and that is a big if, the OL can keep the pocket somewhat clean, Jones has the upside both passing and rushing to be an optimal play. We called it Week 2 when no one was playing him and once again I don’t think anyone is going to be playing him. He is a super boom or bust QB, but this could be a big week for him where they are going to have to throw to keep up. You can easily pair him with a flat min Wan’Dale or Waller and run it back with the bounty of Dolphins that have shown their ceiling this season.
Zach Wilson ($4,900)
HEAR ME OUT! Wilson actually looked the part last week against KC with a 70% completion percentage, over 100 passer rating and 20 DK points to go with it. That could have certainly been a flash in the pan and he could go back to being dreadful again. However, there is no better spot for the Jets to salvage the season than against this Denver defense that has allowed the most pass TDs, 4th most pass yards and the lowest QB pressure and hurry percentages in the league this season. It is a perfect situation for QBs to succeed in and Wilson showed me enough to believe that maybe at the very least he can hit 20 DK points again in this spot. He has a cheap stackable option in Garrett Wilson or even Allen Lazard and just like I said with Goff, there is some serious ownership being projected for Breece Hall this week. You could hedge that with the pass gaming and it opens up so much for you to mini stack other expensive players in better overall scoring environments. I think he is definitely worth a shot and this is probably the only time I will ever suggest him.
Other Considerations:
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100)
Anthony Richardson ($7,000)
CJ Stroud ($6,000)
Matthew Stafford ($5,600)
Josh Dobbs ($5,200)
Bryce Young ($5,100)
RBs:
Joe Mixon ($6,400)
He could be overlooked this week with Kamara right below him and David Montgomery right above him. At the end of the day the Cardinals defense is still bad and has allowed the 10th most rush yards + most rush TDs on the season. Mixon hasn’t been bad at all. It is more the offense not being able to sustain drives with Burrow being clearly injured. They should lean more on Mixon this week who is always live for a big pop off week. He has gotten 70% of the RB snaps in 3 straight weeks and over 85% of the RB touches. The Cardinals have allowed big games to RBs in three straight weeks and this is the perfect get right spot for Mixon to make it 4 straight. The price is good, the ownership should be at bay and his ceiling is still there. Let’s just hope we see it this weekend.
Najee Harris ($5,400)
This is one that I could regret, but I have a strong feeling for him this week. At this price, everyone is going to go to Breece Hall which should keep Harris’ ownership low. With Diontae Johnson out and Kenny Pickett banged up, you would expect the Steelers to try to rely on Harris a bit more. He might look suspect doing it, but the last two weeks he hasn’t been that bad and the explosive run rate kind of backs that up. He is 8th this season in rush plays over 20 yards and is still being used in the passing game. While I might not be the biggest believer in Harris in the long term, right now he still getting the touches over Warren and they will have to lean on him in this one if they want to stay in this game. The TD drought hopefully can come to an end in this one.
Dameon Pierce ($5,300)
Talk about a guy that is trending up. The Texans are expected to get two starting OL back this week and that will help immensely. Pierce has been seeing an uptick in touches lately, mostly due to the offense finally maintaining leads in games. Against the Falcons we should expect to see them lead and win (regardless of Vegas having ATL as 2 point favorites, I expect Houston to win). Even in an average matchup, Pierce should get plenty of volume and a TD will vault him way up given there aren’t a ton of top notch rushing options this week. With a lot of the field going for the passing game in Stroud + Collins/Dell, you can get some leverage by just going Pierce and hoping they use a ground and pound approach to grind out the win.
Other Considerations:
Bijan Robinson ($7,700)
David Montgomery ($6,600)
Alvin Kamara ($6,300)
De’Von Achane ($6,100)
James Conner ($5,800)
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600)
Breece Hall ($5,400)
Gus Edwards ($5,000)
Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000)** If Javonte Williams is OUT
WRs:
Michael Pittman ($6,400)
Last week, Pittman really disappointed with just 5 DK points on just 5 targets which is very unlike him. He now gets a cupcake matchup against a bottom 5 pass defense and top 10 rush defense so passing should be prevalent. He has had double digit targets in every game this season outside of last week, so I expect that to continue. Ownership might not be too high either coming off of a bad game and he is easy to pair with Anthony Richardson as a stack. There isn’t much more to say. Pittman checks all the boxes this week when forecasting for a big performance.
Zay Flowers ($5,500)
I am going to take a second swing on Flowers here. The last time he was a top play for me he got 8 catches and was the highest targeted player on the team, but couldn’t pick up the yards or a TD to make it a great day. Well, now he gets Pittsburgh who has allowed 30+ DK points to the WR1 in 3/4 games this season (the one that didn’t was Amari Cooper who got 16 DK points). While the targets have been inconsistent, he still converts on almost all of them and has had 10+ targets in 2/4 games this year (one of which with Mark Andrews playing). With Bateman and OBJ both banged up (they are expected to play), Flowers should still end up being the WR1 and second fiddle to Andrews or even be the top option and put up solid numbers. There are a lot of options in the mid $5,000 range, so ownership might not be too lofty either.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000)
There is ZERO reason that Robinson should be this price. He has quickly become WR2 in terms of snaps on the Giants and is on the cusp of taking over as the top target option as well. He has 5 and 6 targets in the two games he has played this season and last game even got schemed into the run game. At this price he could literally get a 0 and it won’t kill you. It opens up so much to get to the top priced options and is easily stacked with DJ or Tua as a run back. If he can fall into the box then I can say with almost certainty he will be optimal. For the better part of his career, he has been the WR1 on the Giants when healthy. He has been limited this week with that knee injury, but I think they are just being cautious. Even if his ownership gets steamed up, I am fine taking the risk. His price is not reflective of the volume he currently is getting.
Other Considerations:
Justin Jefferson ($9,400)
Tyreek Hill ($9,000)
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,500)
Devonta Smith ($7,400)
Chris Olave ($6,900)
Garrett Wilson ($6,000)
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700)
Nico Collins ($5,600)
Jordan Addison ($5,300)
Adam Thielen ($5,100)
Marquise Brown ($5,000)
Tank Dell ($4,800)
Tyler Boyd ($4,500)
Jameson Williams ($4,000)** If Amon-Ra St. Brown is OUT
Marvin Mims ($4,000)
Allen Lazard ($3,900)
Josh Downs ($3,700)
Michael Wilson ($3,700)
Rashee Rice ($3,600)
TEs:
Travis Kelce ($7,600)
This is the week I will personally be paying up at TE and there is no one better than Kelce. This game has the highest implied point total on the slate at 52.5 points and growing. Kelce has not had his massive blow up game this season with 10+ catches and 100+ yards with scores and I fully expect it to happen this week. The Vikings haven’t really faced an elite volume TE yet (Dallas Goedert is great, but they don’t use him properly), but when they played the Eagles I bet you can guess who led the team in targets. Yes… it was Goedert. There isn’t much to say that we don’t already know. He is always live to break the slate and the pay up options elsewhere, even at WR, have tougher matchups. This could easily turn into a “Play Mahomes and Kelce, go with value everywhere else” type of week and even if you don’t play his with Mahomes he needs to be a staple in your lineups. This is the week he blows up.
Tyler Higbee ($4,100)
Regardless of Cooper Kupp returning or not, Higbee’s role is not going to change. If anything, Kupp returning will effect Puka, Tuta and Kyren a lot more than Higbee. He has been quite consistent lately with double digit DK points in each of the last two weeks. He got 11 targets last game which is great to see and now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the 3rd most TE DK points on the season. The price point is fine and the game script is perfect for him. The Rams are going to have to throw with the Eagles rush defense being one of the best in the league. Look for Higbee to have another solid performance this week and be a great value to you if you opt not to spend up at the position.
Hayden Hurst ($3,100)
You want to know who has allowed the most pass yards to TEs this season? You guessed it… the Detroit Lions who Hurst gets to play this week. Outside of Thielen, no one else has really stood out as a good receiving option. Hurst atleast showcased Week 1 that he can be the security blanket for Young in a pinch. If the Lions are content funneling production to TEs, I see no reason Frank Reich doesn’t scheme things to allow for that to happen. It is certainly risky since he hasn’t gotten over 3 targets in a game since Week 1, but this is a perfect spot for him to break that mold and get back to his Week 1 output.
Other Considerations:
TJ Hockenson ($6,500)
Sam LaPorta ($5,000)
Dallas Goedert ($4,200)
Zach Ertz ($3,500)
Kyle Pitts ($3,300)
Adam Trautman ($2,700)
Darnell Washington ($2,500)
DST
Texans DST ($3,500)
Patriots DST ($3,100)
Saints DST ($3,000)
Cardinals DST ($2,800)
Titans DST ($2,400)
Panthers DST ($2,200)
