NFL - Raiders vs. Packers Showdown Preview
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Check out their Raiders vs. Packers Showdown video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
Pricing is fairly soft, but there isn’t much value which muddles things. Do you pay up at CPTN and hope the cheap punts somehow get you a lucky TD or some unexpected volume or do you go with a mid priced CPTN so you don’t have to punt? One person that clearly stands out for me if you want to go with a mid priced CPTN is Jakobi Meyers ($10,500 CPTN). Last week was an anomaly with the backup QB involved. In the other two games where Garoppolo started and he was healthy, he got double digit targets and 15+ DK points. With Adams likely getting some Jaire treatment, Meyers could see a similar target share and is priced affordably enough that you don’t have to punt with your last UTIL spot too far. Now if Adams is out, that probably opens things up for other LV receivers, but Meyers would still be a great CPTN option. On the other side of the ball, Christian Watson ($11,700 CPTN) is expected to get his normal allotment of snaps and when healthy is the clear WR1 on this team. Love does like to spread the ball around, but I don’t think any of the WRs on this team have the ceiling Watson has. Hopefully he can get back to the level he was at mid way through last season where he was scoring at will. If you want to pay up, I would lean towards Jordan Love ($14,700 CPTN) who is way underpriced given he has scored 20+ DK points in every game this season and the Raiders defense is bad bad. He has all of his weapons healthy for once and I think the Raiders have enough offensive fire power to push GB into throwing (it won’t be a blowout in my opinion). I think he checks all of the boxes tonight and should be played at either UTIL or CPTN. Lastly, GB has allowed the 7th most rush yards/game this season which makes me think that Josh Jacobs ($15,900 CPTN) is in for a good game tonight. He finally broke out of the slump last week, but that was mostly on the back of 8 catches. If they continue to use him in the passing game like that then there is no doubt he can be a great option every week, but with a different setup this week with Jimmy G back it likely will regress back to a normal share of targets. He still maintained an 80% rush share and played on 70% of the snaps despite being in a trailing script most of the game. Especially if Adams is out or limited, Jacobs should be the main guy this week.
Raiders
The Raiders are somehow 2.5 point favorites at home with a 24.5 point implied team total. I am baffled how Vegas sees this team and thinks they can win anything, but hopefully that puts more of the field onto Raiders players over the Packers. Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,400) is underpriced for a QB, but his ceiling is just not high. He is really confined to throwing to just two targets, Davante Adams ($11,200) and Jakobi Meyers ($7,000). Adams’ health is in question for this game. I certainly think he is going to play, but with Jaire Alexander also expected to play, that certainly takes a bit off of Adams’ true ceiling. I would be more inclined to just take the savings and play Meyers who has been excellent when Jimmy G has been throwing. I already talked about him above, but double digit targets in each of those games is not something to look past. The only downfall is the Packers pass defense has been solid, only allowing 195 pass yards/game this season and that is without Jaire. If that doesn’t scare you away, the Raiders still have Hunter Renfrow ($2,200) running as the WR3 getting about 45% of the snaps and minimal targets. The target share has been growing ever so slightly over the last few weeks, so at this price I think he is fine. I just don’t know how much of a ceiling he has. The role he played in the past has since come and gone. Then it’s Tre Tucker ($200), DeAndre Carter ($200) or bust. They don’t run much outside of those guys. Both at the minimum are interesting as it allows you to get studs and both QBs. However, Tucker hasn’t gotten a target since Week 2 and Carter has just 2 targets all year (atleast he converted both for catches). Neither give you much upside at all. The TE group is just as lousy with Austin Hooper ($600) and Michael Mayer ($200) officially getting 50% of the snaps each. I would lean Hooper since he is atleast getting some targets (5 targets to Mayer’s 2 on the season). Crappy TEs always come through on a few SD slates a year. If you want to take a flier on either go for it. Just be prepared for let down when all of these cheap Raiders do absolutely nothing with Jacobs/Adams/Meyers getting 80% of the volume. As for the backfield, Josh Jacobs ($10,600) is primed for a big game. It is the most logical spot for the Raiders to lean on with GB being that bad against the run. His ownership is likely to be up there maybe even above Adams as the highest on the slate. I still think it is worth it. Ameer Abdullah ($1,000) and Jakob Johnson ($200) do come in to spell Jacobs sometimes (Jakob is more of the FB with Abdullah being the rotation). He does get some passing work and is used more during 2 minute drill and trailing situations. With me thinking the Packers control this game more, I actually like Abdullah as a punt play. He would probably be 2nd on this team for me in terms of punts behind Renfrow. There is just a clear path to him getting some usage even if there isn’t much of a ceiling. The only other person that even get snaps is Zamir White ($3,200), but that might be the worst priced SD player this season. He barely plays and is wayyyy more than the true backup Abdullah. Don’t even consider him.
Packers
The Packers are 2.5 point underdogs on the road with a 22 point implied team total. I really like the path for them to win this game even on the road. They look a lot better than LV does and are doing a lot better job at controlling the game. The Packers defense is actually first in fewest plays (Their defense is out there the fewest that is). To me that means their offense is doing great at controlling the clock and keeping everyone fresh. Jordan Love ($9,800) is a stone cold lock for me at that price. His floor is basically 17 DK points and the ceiling is certainly there if the LV atleast keeps it competitive. The Raiders are tied for 3rd most pass TDs allowed/game, so I expect some of his weapons to get there. I still think Christian Watson ($7,800) has the highest ceiling of the bunch and is priced as the WR2. I understand that with Romeo Doubs ($8,200) being a stud this season. I still think with a full workload, Watson is the guy and can break a slate. Doubs is more the possession receiver who will have his days, but might not reach the ceiling of Watson. Ownership will really dictate how I want to play them. I would be more inclined to play the one with lower ownership projections. Just think of it like Watson is the GPP/upside play whereas Doubs is the safe, high floor play that still can get you there. After those two, Jayden Reed ($6,200) has filled in as a solid option with Watson out, but at this price and the role reducing I just can’t get there. I would be more inclined to go to Luke Musgrave ($5,200) for $1,000 less who was primed for a massive game last week until he got hurt early and missed the rest of the contest. He was playing on around 85% of the snaps and running plenty of routes. The targets are fine and he is a big bodied guy who can be a red zone threat. Eventually he has to get his first TD of his career. I think he is fine and a little bit better of an option compared to Reed. Price is a big factor. Then you get to the real punts. Dontayvion Wicks ($200) shockingly played on 58% of the snaps last week. We do have to factor in it was a blowout and he got a lot of run in the garbage time. I expect that to come down a good bit. If he is going to be owned in any fashion I would run away. Maybe as a deep punt in a massive field tournament I would consider it if I was running 50+ lineups. There is also Samori Toure ($200) who got some garbage time snaps, but nothing more than 11%. Don’t get cute there. The backfield is super messy with Aaron Jones ($10,000) expected to play, but he has been limited again. I am assuming he will play and if he does I love it in this spot. He is always going to be a boom or bust type of guy. After last week’s flop and the Q tag looming, I could see ownership being low for Jones. Everyone is going to go to the cheaper QBs or the LV duo first. You can’t fit them all in and Jones would likely be the first guy out. The Raiders are just as bad against the run as the Packers are so if they just give Jones the touches he deserves, he will smash tonight. I just don’t think AJ Dillon ($4,600) is any good. Hopefully the Packers’ coaches notice that and give Jones his backfield back. I think Dillon is a fine play for GPP purposes though. Biases aside, he is still going to come in and spell Jones often and is the preferred RZ/goal line RB. He could fall in the endzone twice on like 5 carries this week and I wouldn’t be surprised at all. He is definitely not going to be in my lineups because, again, I think he isn’t good. If you want to slot him that is fine though. The last bit for GB is Josiah Deguara ($1,800) did have a good game with Musgrave out last time. I expect him to go back to the backup role. Backup TEs do get there from time to time, but I wouldn’t recommend playing him.
EDIT: Now that Jones is out, Dillon will be mega chalk and it is likely Patrick Taylor ($200) gets some love now in the 5-10% range. I think Dillon is close to a lock at this price. In GPPs I do like Taylor as well as the guy that will be like 1% owned Emanuel Wilson ($200). He is just as fine as Taylor in my opinion.
DST and K
With both QBs being more of a game manager type and less prone to turnovers, I am not going to recommend either of the Packers DST ($4,400) or the Raiders DST ($3,800). Neither unit is that great if we are being honest. If I had to choose one it would be the Packers. They are getting Jaire Alexander back and they have decent pressure measures (7th in QB Pressure % and 4th in QB Hurry % on the season). I just think the Raiders have enough offensive “fire power” to still score a decent chunk of points. As for K’s, I have a little bit of interest in both. Anders Carlson ($4,000) should have opportunities for FGs and is cheap enough to fit in as a final UTIL piece. The only real concern is the Packers are 5th in red zone conversation rate this season, so we could see more XPs than FGs tonight which makes him a suboptimal play. As for Daniel Carlson ($4,200), the man is very talented but this team is anemic to scoring in general and when they do they score TDs. The team is only converting on 47% of their red zone drives with more turnovers than anything. I think he is fine, but risky would be a good way to put it.
My Narratives
Jordan Love > everyone
Watson > Doubs
My preferred punts are from the LV side
Jacobs > Meyers > Adams (this one could crush me)
Packers 4/2 stacks or 3/3
Packers win 24-17
