NFL - Commanders vs. Bears Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
Both of these teams have bottom tier defenses and neither offense is elite by any stretch. In most cases when this is how they align, the game is either very high scoring or a complete slog fest ending like 13-6. I am leaning towards higher scoring with the growing Vegas implied game total and offensive weapons on both sides that have high upsides. CPTN for this one could be an absolute crap shoot with the inconsistencies both teams have. From strictly a pricing standpoint, there is some value to be had but it isn’t the best. Maybe going balanced at the CPTN spot makes more sense you don’t have to go down to the shady punts. Some guys that come to mind would be Darnell Mooney ($7,500 CPTN). Yes his floor is a 0 which makes it risky. However, he is a big play threat and could become the optimal CPTN on one big play. He had solid Week 4 and Week 1 outputs with 9 and 15 DK points. He had two zeros in between with zero targets which is concerning, but I like the ceiling. The Commanders will have to turn their attention to Moore which can open things up for Mooney to have a big game. The 7 targets he got last game hopefully follow him into this game. Next up is Logan Thomas ($7,800 CPTN) who has had no less than 7.6 DK points in all 3 of the games he has played this season. I hope he can stay healthy because he is a talented player and the Bears have allowed the 4th most pass yards/game this season. With a snap share north of 75% in his return from a concussion, they clearly see him as the top TE and will get him involved. If he can get into the endzone that would vault him up the rankings as an optimal CPTN quickly. It just depends on how the rest of the game plays out. Other than those two, there are the clear top CPTN options that you would pay up for. We finally saw a Justin Fields ($16,500 CPTN) ceiling game from him last time out with only 25 rush yards. If he can finally pop and hit the rushing ceiling we know he has, the sky is the limit. You don’t even need to pair him with more than 1 WR/TE option given he can do it all on the ground. You also have his sidekick DJ Moore ($15,000 CPTN) who also had a banner game in Week 4. The targets will always be there and the Commanders are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. He is worth chasing on talent alone as he is Field’s favorite target. Lastly, given the Bears have an awful pass defense (4th most pass yards/game allowed to start the season), Terry McLaurin ($15,300 CPTN) has to be mentioned as a solid CPTN option. His target share is similar to Moore’s. I think he can also have a ceiling game similar to how Moore did last week, but a lot hinges on how his QB plays tonight. Regardless of game script, he will get his due and has a floor to support you from finishing last which is a decent boost.
Commanders
The Commanders are a crazy 6 point favorites at home with a 25.25 point team implied total. They gave the Eagles a run for their money last week and if they had some balls and went for 2 after the regulation ending TD, they might have won. There is a clear avenue for the Commanders to abuse the Bears’ pass defense, but they do like to balance the run well which should involve plenty of this offense. They should be able to put up points, which makes me lean towards Sam Howell ($9,400) having a pretty solid game is criminally underpriced for a QB on any SD slate. His options are better than people lead on with Terry McLaurin ($10,200) and Jahan Dotson ($7,000) leading the way. I already talked about McLaurin, but Dotson could be the real steal tonight. He is only trailing McLaurin in targets by 1 on the season (26 vs, 25). His issue is his YPC number is much lower. If he can start to capitalize on the targets and convert them for more yards he could easily be a better value. Those $3,200 in savings could be the difference maker. Regardless, both of these guys are in plus matchups against a cupcake pass defense so I would try to get one in your lineup. Next up is Curtis Samuel ($5,600) who is honestly keeping pace in terms of targets as well. The Bears have been a little bit better at defending the slot compared to the outside WRs which is why I think Samuel isn’t as good of a play. Chasing his 18 DK point Week 4 performance is something the field will definitely do so expect him to be decently owned. I don’t hate him, but he isn’t my favorite play on the slate. Then you get Logan Thomas ($5,200) who I really like here and already talked about. He is more of a leverage play off of Samuel and others so if you want to get more unique that is the direction I would go. Lastly, Dyami Brown ($2,800) and Byron Pringle ($200) who round out the snap share for the WRs. Brown is a bit too expensive for my liking given this team likes to run and he is at best the 5th passing option behind even the RBs. He is getting some targets so you can’t discount him. Maybe only throw him in there as a big leverage piece in one or two lineups if you are running 20+ lineups. Pringle is atleast the flat min and only needs 1 or 2 catches to have a shot at being optimal if the dominos fall the right way. I would be more inclined to go to him. He got 2 targets last game and 23% of the snaps. He is definitely someone to keep in mind. The last thing to talk about is the backfield with Brian Robinson ($9,200) and Antonio Gibson ($3,200) splitting the backfield. Robinson gets nearly 80% of the volume, but man the price on Gibson is tantalizing. He is getting close to 10 touches/game and if it weren’t for the fumbling issue would probably get more. He is talented, but when you cough up the ball once a game that is a huge factor and Robinson can be just as productive and still hold onto the ball. The Bears defense is still allowing 1 rush TD/game on the season so odds are one of these guys finds the endzone. Given the nature of both pass defenses being bad, I just don’t know if either of these guys will score enough to get into the optimal. You always have to factor in pricing and they did a good job making it hard to pick between the two based on that and the opportunity cost for both. I would lean Robinson, but that means you have to fade on of the top priced options in favor of him. Just keep that in mind. I would shy away from any of Cole Turner ($800), John Bates ($400) or Derrick Gore ($200). They will get snaps, but if I am going this low it would be to Pringle first. I could see the avenue for Bates as the defacto backup TE who is going to play about 30% of the snaps. He would need the lucky TD to even get there which is going to be unpredictable. I just don’t think you even need to go this low in general.
Bears
The Bears are 6 point underdogs on the road with a 19.25 point team implied total. They really blew it last week which is more on the defense than on the offense who did everything they could. Coaching really let them down which in all honestly has to be demoralizing. Justin Fields ($11,000) did everything he could throwing the ball against a cupcake pass defense and gets another sub par defense. I think he will have to rely on his legs more in this one. I really don’t think the secondary for Washington is that bad. They are much more susceptible against the run and we all know Fields can let loose on the ground. Given the low implied team total, I do see an avenue for Fields disappointing. He still struggles to throw the ball. I think last week it was more a product of the Broncos are just that bad at pass defense outside of Surtain. I am always one to look at the ceiling for players so I won’t be fading, but I get the range of outcomes for Fields tonight is massive and I would be remised if I didn’t relay that to my readers as well. His main target, DJ Moore ($10,000) is completely correlated to Fields in the sense for Moore to do good, Fields has to do well so if you are going to play Moore you need to have Fields as well. He will certainly get targets, but again the low implied team total does raise some red flags. If they start running the ball in bunches which is something the Bears want to do, Moore could have a sub par night. If the Bears are successful running the ball, they are just going to lean on that. I get Moore has a big ceiling, but he has only hit in 2/4 games and this is definitely going to be a slower game with him regressing back from the 30 DK points he got last week. I like him, but am hesitant that he could fall flat even with 8+ targets. Fields can also target the likes of Darnell Mooney ($5,000) and Cole Kmet ($6,400). Kmet really impressed last week and got a massive price boost. I don’t know if I want to pay that much for him when he had failed to crack 10 DK points every other game this season outside of last weeks 28 DK point performance. I expect a lot of regression here and I am siding with let the field chase that game and get away from his ownership. The Commanders have actually had the best TE defense in the league to start the season, so this is bad overall matchup. I think there is a lot stacked against Kmet here so I would fade him. As for Mooney, like I said in the CPTN section, he could be very good leverage and is a downfield, homerun threat. All he needs is one play which is great for GPPs, but play him at your own risk. He is always live to give you a 0. After those three it is really just Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,800) and Tyler Scott ($200) who get WR snaps. St. Brown has essentially taken Claypool’s WR3 spot given he is on the trade block. He really didn’t do much last week, but was on the field for 58% of the snaps and is dirt cheap. He is just a flier for me in all honesty, but anything can happen. As for Scott, he got just 20% of the snaps, but was schemed for twice atleast given his 2 rush attempts which is nice to see. If they can just get him 1 or 2 catches then he could be the key to tonight’s SD. That is about it for the pass catchers. The backfield is kind of tricky. In games that the Bears can keep close I expect Khalil Herbert ($8,600) is going to be the big factor. He finally broke out last game with 100+ rush yards and multiple catches. Other than that game he hadn’t scored more than 11 DK points in a game. Given the price I would be very hesitant. However, the Commanders do give up over 120 rush yards/game and 1 TD. I think the game does stay closer than the 6 point deficit implies so I expect Herbert to get the bulk of the carries. If that is how I feel I am not going to side with Roschon Johnson ($4,800) who really hasn’t been able to showcase his talents the last few weeks. He needs a blowout or seriously trailing script to be viable and both defenses being sub par tonight make me think it will be closer. This price is just a bit too steep for my liking, but he does give you leverage. I think he has the talent, but the way the team wants to use him doesn’t help him in this spot. If they were going to be playing the Bills or something where the game could get out of hand then I would find him more appealing. I just think this game stays close enough that they give Herbert the looks. Problem with Herbert is his price is too steep so there is an avenue for him to bust. Neither of them give me a ton of confidence for different reasons. Lastly, we have to mention Velus Jones ($1,000), Robert Tonyan ($600), Khari Blasingame ($200) and Marcedes Lewis ($200) who will get snaps. The only ones worth really talking about is Tonyan and Blasingame who get around ~25% of the snaps respectively. I feel like a broken record, but the backup TE will be optimal one of these days and who knows if it will be Tonyan. I lean it isn’t him but you have to atleast mention him. Blasingame is sneakily getting decent snaps but literally no production from it. I wouldn’t go there but I have seen crazier pop.
DST and K
This is a weird game where both offenses are very turnover prone, but the defenses suck. I don’t hate Commanders DST ($5,400) given the Bears are almost a guarenteed fumble or two plus an INT and some sacks. Against bad teams they have produced and the Bears are a bad team. I am fine playing them even with some Bears because of the defensive TD upside. However, the price is off-putting. The Bears DST ($4,000) is a complete fade for me. I just think that unit is terrible. If I lose fading them so be it. As for the kickers, they are going to score. Neither offense is going to convert on 100% of their redzone possessions. Given the Commanders have a better implied team total, I would lean towards Joey Slye ($4,200) over Cairo Santos ($4,600). He is cheaper as well and has scored more per game that Santos. It feels like a no brainer.
My Narratives
Spicy hot takes!
Playing the Commanders DST
Fields turns it over, but still gets solid stats
Brian Robinson gets back on track
Play one of Mooney/Moore and one of Dotson/McLaurin
4/2 Commanders stack
Commanders 17-13
