NFL - Week 5 Reflections & Takeaways
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Week 5 is in the books and this is the point in the year we can really start seeing some trends and realize how each team’s season is going to turn out. Every week, I want to highlight a key takeaway from each team to hopefully find some patterns to help us start creating new trends for each team. While each team might have plenty of things to take away from that week’s games, I want to detail one that the media not be as focused on. The hope is that we can recognize these patterns before the rest of the field does, giving us leverage in the coming weeks. This is more meant to be structured towards fantasy football, but can also be applied to DFS in some aspects. No need to ramble… let’s dive right in!
Cardinals:
James Conner has picked up a knee injury that is likely to sideline him 2-4 weeks. This opens up a lot things for Rondale Moore and Emari Demercado to get the backfield carries. I am more interested in Rondale Moore because he is being used in a “Deebo Samuel” type of role. Demercade should get the carries this coming week, but with Keaontay Ingram set to return soon, he was being used as the backup RB in training camp and the preseason so I expect him to return to that role unless Emari really breaks out. This team should be throwing more, so a lot of the pass catchers will see a slight uptick in targets.
Falcons:
I can’t believe I am saying it, but Desmond Ridder looked half decent last week. The big issue is they are so hard to predict. They did win, but they did it in such an odd fashion. The run game stalled so they had to throw a lot more which did prove effective. Everyone on this team is going to have good and bad weeks. They face some weaker pass defenses coming up, so maybe we can say Kyle Pitts and Drake London have a bright future coming up. Other than that, expect a lot of volatility from everyone on this team.
Ravens:
What the heck is wrong with Lamar Jackson? They got embarrassed by Pittsburgh and couldn’t generate anything on offense. Pitts’ defense has been nothing special either. The OL is struggling to give Lamar a good pocket and he isn’t using his legs effectively. The next 4 weeks should be a lot better against some much easier defenses, but right now Lamar looks broken.
Bills:
With James Cook being a top 15 fantasy back up to this point, I would be trying to trade him on. He just isn’t able to crack the snap share and get the touches necessary to really vault himself up much. We are seeing a downtrend in those touches and blowout scripts have not been favorable to him either losing time to Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. Not that he isn’t talented. It is just not looking promising when Josh Allen loves to run and they have the offensive weapons to sustain drives.
Panthers:
The only positive thing to say is Adam Thielen is producing like a top 15 WR again. He is getting so much volume and plays drawn up for him. Other than that, this team is kind of a dumpster fire and with no 1st round pick next year and being the only 0-5 team things are looking bleak. I wouldn’t give up on Bryce Young just yet. He does show some flashes. There is just no talent around him and the OL is doing him zero favors in pass protection. I could honestly see them losing 90% of their games this season barring some miracle.
Bears:
Wow did the narrative on Justin Fields flip in a quick time frame. It is almost as if last season he did the exact same thing: started slow then popped off towards the middle of the year once a lot of people had written him off. This is where I was expecting myself to say “pump the breaks”, but he does face some crappy defenses coming up so he can and will probably keep the momentum going. I don’t think the Bears issues stem from Fields. They just need to coach him up better from the shoulders up so he can be more efficient.
Bengals:
Is Joe Burrow back? He looked more elusive in the pocket, had good velocity on his deep throws and managed the game well. Sure looks back to me. With Tee Higgins being hurt, I fully expect like 50% of the pass volume to go to Chase’s way because he wasn’t wrong. He is literally open on every play. With JJ getting hurt, he is on a fast track to being the WR1 soon if the volume remains up.
Browns:
BYE WEEK
Cowboys:
When this team gets down they literally zero fight in them. The play calling goes to crap with them abandoning the run completely (which should be one of their strengths). It makes no sense that they keep letting Dak Prescott piss games away when you can give Tony Pollard the ball 20+ times and probably win comfortably. I am very concerned for the passing side of this offense with how bad Dak looks. It will also affect the run because teams will load more in the box and force Dak to actually win. I am worried about this team and I am not surprised at all. They always find a way to blow it.
Broncos:
They had a chance and they kind of blew it this past week. There is just nothing going for this team. I guess maybe one good aspect is Jerry Jeudy is looking to be the WR1 again. His target share is steadily growing and is on the field for over 80% of the snaps finally. Hopefully he will produce a big week here soon. The rest of the team is going to be super hit or miss just about every week so there is nothing else really to talk about. This team sucks. That is about it.
Lions:
There is so much going on with this team right now. How healthy are Amon-Ra and Gibbs? What type of usage is Jameson Williams going to get going forward? I don’t know if anyone has an answer to that, but we do have something that is a certainty for this team… David Montgomery is HIM! The man is so consistent and getting so much volume. He is what keeps the offense churning every drive and will likely be the most consistent guy in this offense outside of ARSB when he is healthy.
Packers:
What happened to this team? They look so good at times then look putrid. They really need this bye week to get fully healthy. Jordan Love looked really bad last week in what should have been a great game script for him. Outside of the backfield, I would be weary of any pass catcher in this offense due to the inconsistencies of how they operate. They can just let AJones or Dillon the ball and know they will atleast be able to maintain drives.
Texans:
The injury to Tank Dell could become a serious problem if he is out a while. He was the guy stretching the field which opened things up for Nico and Woods to get the job done elsewhere. If they don’t have that, I think this team will struggle a little bit. Stroud still looks good, but he can only do so much if teams are going to gameplan for them easily. Atlanta does have a good defense, especially in the secondary, which could account for some of the poor stat lines. I think they will be just fine as long as Tank Dell is healthy and ready to go.
Colts:
Anthony Richardson needs to have someone coach him on how to take contact because his health is a serious concern. He gets hurt way too often for someone of his size and athletic ability. If he can stay healthy this team is seriously going to be competitive. One of the biggest takeaways is that Josh Downs will be a factor regardless of the QB. His route running out of the slot makes him a great safety blanket for either Minshew or AR. I love what I am seeing out of the rookie who is becoming quite the factor week in and week out.
Jaguars:
This team makes no sense. They get embarrassed by the Texans one week then go beat a top notch Bills team within a close proximity. They did look great in that game and if they can carry that into the coming weeks that should be enough to maybe solidify their spot as the top team in the AFC South. Travis Etienne has really put himself into the top 5 fantasy RB conversation with consistent weeks across the board. He pretty much beat the Bills by himself. I don’t think he is going to relinquish any of this backfield to Tank Bigsby any time soon.
Chiefs:
This team is just not the same under Matt Nagy compared to Eric Bienemy. The don’t have any vision and their WR group hasn’t had anyone stand out. It really is just Mahomes, Kelce and Pacheco with the rest being used sparingly. The big concern now is Travis Kelce did get hurt which makes for two lower body injuries to start the season. Is his age finally catching up to him? He still put up a great fantasy performance, but if he isn’t playing 17 games a year there are some young TEs that could start taking over as the top TE every year. I still think he is the guy so nothing to worry about unless he were to get hurt again. He was good enough to come back and get 6/40/1 just in the second half. On a short week, keep an eye on his injury status because there is a chance he doesn’t play this week.
Raiders:
Jakobi Meyers is really making a name for himself in LV. I think the Patriots really messed up picking Juju over him in the offseason. He has double digit targets in every game that Jimmy G has started with multiple TDs to go with it. Davante Adams picked up an injury a few weeks back and it might seriously be hindering him. He out targeted him 10-4 last game which is very promising to see. With the backfield inefficiencies continuing to be a problem, having two very solid WR options is proving to be helpful and the cause for being 2-3 vs. possibly winless. This really isn’t a good football team, but Meyers is shaping up to be one of the bright spots.
Chargers:
BYE WEEK
Rams:
Cooper Kupp is back and looking just like his old self. The big question mark was could Puka Nacua and Kupp coexist? Well we have that answer: YES! Each received double digit targets and scored very similarly against an Eagles defense that is still pretty solid. As long as they stay healthy, this WR duo can now be talked about as one of the best duos in the league. When you get 66% of the team targets that isn’t something you can just write off. Both are top end WR options going forward. The time window for trading for either of these guys cheap has closed.
Dolphins:
The man did it again. De’Von Achane had another massively efficient week rushing for 151 yards and a TD on just 11 rushes. There is just no way that can be sustainable going forward… well duh because he got hurt. The man is electric and can burn just about any team once he gets to the second level. I fully expect them to put him on IR which means he will miss the next 4 games. Raheem Mostert is back on the menu… or is he? Jeff Wilson is projected to return here soon which could muddle things and Salvon Ahmed is also back. I could see this being a 3 headed monster RBBC again which is not going to be fun. It all hinges on how much each is used next game.
Vikings:
Justin Jefferson got hurt. So sad to see because he was this offense and the piece that unlocked everything. I don’t know how things will shake out for the next few weeks, but my initial thought is that KJ Osborn assumes his role where Jordan Addison keeps his with an increased target share. Is it good or bad for both of them? I think it should be good because they will be trailing and have to throw. It is probably best for TJ Hockenson who will get peppered with looks. All 3 should be better off than they were before that is for sure.
Patriots:
If you thought losing 38-3 against Dallas was bad and things couldn’t get any worse well you were wrong. They just got embarrassed by the Saints 34-0. This team is a dumpster fire with no weapons, a QB that probably is soon to see his last snaps as a starter and a defense that is just bang average. Letting go of Jakobi Meyers was a massive mistake and they have probably the worst WR group in the league and that is saying something when Carolina, NYG and KC have a bunch of WR3s running routes all game. Mac Jones is a broken man and just flat out bad at football. He needed to take the next step this year and has gone backwards in a number of ways. This team needs to tear it down and try to out tank the Bears and Panthers for the No. 1 overall pick to get Caleb Williams. That is the only way to fix things.
Saints:
What a big win for them even if it was against one of the worst teams in the league. Their defense looked elite which is not surprising and they did enough on offense to get the job done. The only real takeaway is that Michael Thomas is looking to be the WR1 in terms of targets compared to Chris Olave which is very concerning for those that draft Olave expecting the opposite. He got 7 targets to Olave’s 5 and he is lucky he got the TD or it would have been an awful week. That is back to back weeks with Olave being 2nd or 3rd in terms of target share with MT or Kamara taking the top spot. I just don’t know if Derek Carr is good enough to sustain all of these weapons and it will likely lead to Olave having a sub par season.
Giants:
This team just sucks without Barkley and even with him they are bad. Now Daniel Jones is banged up which can’t be good regardless because Tyrod Taylor is just putrid at this point in his career. I mean what can I say? I guess Darren Waller if you give him the targets he deserves is a quality fantasy asset. He finally saw double digit targets and made the most of it with his best game of the season. Other than that you have a bunch of WR3s running around doing nothing and a nonexistent run game without Barkley. Waller might be the only consistent piece and even he is going to have his bad weeks here and there.
Jets:
Another week where Zach Wilson throws for over 70% completion percentage is crazy to see. I think the real takeaway is that Breece Hall is officially back. They said prior to the week he would be full go going forward and we saw the outcome. 150+ yards and a TD on more than 20 carries. That is how they need to be balancing their offense going forward. Granted it was against one of the worst rush defenses in the league so I expect some regression. It is just a nice sight to see when the start to his season was bleak to say the least.
Eagles:
This offense just keeps humming along, but the one guy that is continuing to be held back is Devonta Smith. His numbers the first few weeks were awesome, but ever since they decided to run the ball more and get AJ Brown involved it has been a disappointment. I am a bit scared of him going forward because it just seems like he will be a boom bust option who will lose you more games then he wins you. This offense is just too good and gets too much of a lead to be able to sustain everyone when their rushing attack is so strong. Sad to say but I would try to trade him for name value if you can.
Steelers:
Honestly after this week, it seems pretty apparent that George Pickens is just going to be a super boom bust guy. I feel similar about him as I do Smith that I just wrote about above. Once Diontae Johnson returns, he is going to lose part of his target share and you will see more weeks like Week 4 where he went 4/25 over last week where he had over 100 yards and a TD. He doesn’t get much separation as is and the two big games he has came from broken coverage bomb TDs. It just isn’t sustainable long term. Now that you can sell him high in fantasy I would be looking to do so.
49ers:
This team is just incredible to watch. They dismantled a top notch Cowboys defense by just slowly working their way down the field and finding George Kittle for 3 TDs early. He had a great game no doubt, but the Cowboys are not good against TE and it isn’t surprising Kittle did work. The only thing is he does this atleast 3-4 times a season and then has middling success the rest of the way. It vaults him to the TE4-5 just about every season and we look past all the duds for the successes. This team just has too many weapons to sustain every game and Kittle with his blocking will be used as a lineman in some games more often than we want to admit. I would be looking to sell him high after this big game.
Seahawks:
BYE WEEK
Buccaneers:
BYE WEEK
Titans:
Everyone is going to be talking about how Tajae Spears is the shiny new toy in town while Derrick Henry is finally showing his age. Honestly, my first take from this game is when will DeAndre Hopkins finally score again? He has looked great this season and usually is a TD machine. This offense just scores in so many different ways, but it is evident he is due soon. I would be looking to buy low on him if you can as well as Derrick Henry. Winter is coming and those two guys will be the cornerstone of the offense once it is optimal to ground and pound plus look for the big targets in the redzone.
Commanders:
Is Logan Thomas quickly working his way out of the TE wasteland? I think so. TEs under Eric Bienemy have been top notch his entire career and Thomas is talented. His issue has always been his health. He balled out in a great TE matchup and has another one this week against the 2nd worst TE defense in the league. I think he can and will continue this strong run of play even in tougher matchups as Howell’s safety valve that he seems to like a lot. We just have to hope he stays healthy for the entire season.
