NFL - Week 4 Top Plays
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Check out their Week 4 Stacks Article now!
With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QB Stacks:
Kirk Cousins ($7,100)
This team is much more efficient throwing the ball then running it and I think they lean on that in this one. They have a healthy implied total of 25 points and growing. The Panthers secondary is decimated with injuries to Jaycee Horn, Xavier Woods and CJ Henderson banged up as well. I don’t think they have a stop for JJ, Addison and Hockenson who all will be licking their chops. Kirk is top 10 in a lot of key passing stats (Y/A, Y/C, Y/G) and I don’t see that changing in this one. They desperately need a win and this is the perfect spot to get one. All they need is for the Panthers to keep pace and after last week I think they can regardless of the QB situation. The Vikings defense is doing them zero favors as well so we could be in line for a shootout in this game. I like pairing Cousins with any of the guys above and run it back with Thielen, Chark or Sanders.
Joe Burrow ($6,500)
This is a very risky play, but the matchup is almost perfect for him here. The Titans rush defense is very solid and their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. They have allowed the 5th most pass yards/game this season and we all know the Bengals love to chuck it. With plenty of weapons including Chase, Higgins and Boyd, I see no reason Burrow can’t eclipse 300 yards, get the bonus and support multiple targets this week. The Bengals defense hasn’t been anything special either. They’ve allowed the 4th most rush yards/game this season which makes this a perfect spot for Henry to bounce back. Everything is lined up for a perfect Burrow/Chase/Higgins/Henry stack. With Burrow’s injury concerns, he could come in lower owned when in reality his ceiling is 30+ DK points easily in this spot as long as they let him cook.
Brock Purdy ($5,900)
Under $6,000 for the QB with the highest implied team total on the slate is something you don’t see often. This team can probably win this game just running the ball which makes this risky, but the Cardinals have been 3-0 at covering the spread this season there is no reason to believe they atleast make it somewhat competitive. They just beat the Cowboys which hopefully will keep the 49ers from treating this like a practice and overlook them. With a lot of Q tags for the receiving options, if just one of them is out we could see a lot usage go to just a few players. That makes Purdy easy to stack and the run back options are fairly cheap. I don’t think there is a chance he kills you unless CMC just runs wild and Purdy has like 15 pass attempts. The floor is just too solid in this spot to look away from him.
Other Considerations:
Josh Allen ($8,200)
Justin Herbert ($7,800)
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600)
Justin Fields ($6,600)
Russell Wilson ($5,800)
CJ Stroud ($5,600)
Bryce Young ($5,300)
RBs:
Derrick Henry ($7,000)
I talked about him in the QB section with Burrow, but this is a prime spot for him to go bananas. The Bengals have allowed the 3rd most rush yard/game in the league this season and Henry in good matchups typically does his usual thing. To start the season, he has been pretty lackluster and last week was really bad. The game script is what sets Henry up this season and I think this matchup is set up for him to succeed. It isn’t like Week’s 1 and 2 he did poor. He still had good volume Week 2 and Week 1 was against a really tough Saints rush defense. Last week the game got out of hand and they didn’t have a reason to put him out there. If Tannehill can just not suck there is no reason Henry can’t have a big game. They are going to have to rely on him if they want to win, but it is up to the passing attack to keep it close.
James Cook ($6,300)
Everyone is going to be going after the passing attacks from this game. Ownership will go to Diggs, Davis and Kincaid first I think before they go after the backfield. The easiest way to get different could be to go to Cook has been extremely consistent this season with 16+ touches in every game this season and plenty of work in the passing game. The last few games he has been nonexistent in the 4th quarter due to blowouts. I doubt this is a blowout so he should get even more of a workload. If they are in a trailing script, he is going to be used more in the passing game. I think this is a win/win spot for Cook if you ask me. The implied game total is almost 5 points clear of the next highest game. You will want to get pieces from this game and he is one that might be a little bit different.
Kyren Williams ($6,000)
The opportunities are still there with 17 targets in the last two games. Not rushes… targets. He is still seeing double digit carries and that shouldn’t change here. Zack Moss is the exact same price and is projected with higher ownership from this same game. With Richardson coming back, I am confident his numbers come down and Williams is primed to bounce back. All he needs is the TD regression to go back up. The Colts rush defense is allowing 100+ yards/game and 1+ TDs/game on the ground through the first few games and Williams getting north of 90% of the snaps and touches in the backfield. There’s a lot to like for Williams in a great bounce back spot this week.
Other Considerations:
Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Raheem Mostert ($6,500)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200)
Miles Sanders ($5,800)
De’Von Achane ($5,700)
D’Andre Swift ($5,700)
Javonte Williams ($5,500)
Najee Harris ($5,500)
Jerome Ford ($5,400)
Dameon Pierce ($5,100)
Jaylen Warren ($5,000)
Khalil Herbert ($4,700)
WRs:
Davante Adams ($8,000)
There is speculation as to who will be playing QB for the Raiders this weekend and he is sandwiched between three of the highest projected ownership WRs on the slate (Hill, Diggs and Keenan). I could see him coming in a lot lower owned than he should which doesn’t make much sense. Currently, he is their offense. He got 20 targets last week in a loss where they needed to throw the ball. It is likely they will be trailing most of this game as well so there is no reason Adams won’t get atleast 12 targets if not more. As long as he can capitalize on those and convert them into catches he will be able to keep pace with the fire power from the Bills/Dolphins game and his opponent Keenan this week.
Jerry Jeudy ($6,600) or Courtland Sutton ($5,300)
This is definitely a get right spot for the Broncos who are not off to the start they would have wanted. That locker room has to be pissed after getting their butts whooped last week and get a cupcake defensive matchup against the Bears. They will be missing Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson who are two of their starting DBs. Jeudy and Sutton should be able to torch them this week and those two hold over a 50% target share for the WRs on this team. A lot of buzz is also going to Marvin Mims, but given he is still hovering around the 30% snap share mark, it just seems super risky chasing his production from the last two weeks. The Bears are allowing the 3rd most pass yards/game this season. This is a prime spot for the Broncos duo to have a great game. I lean Sutton for the savings, but both are good leverage plays this weekend.
Calvin Austin III ($3,300)
If you need savings he is your guy. Without Diontae Johnson out, he has gotten a 70%+ snap share and is tied with Pickens for leading the team in targets. Houston isn’t anything special defending through the air, so it is more up to Pickett to get going with this play. He lets you do so much with your lineup and shouldn’t garner too much ownership. I don’t typically like chasing guys who popped the week prior that are cheap, but the numbers lean towards Austin continuing his strong play this week. With Houston actually playing well, the Steelers could get themselves into a pass happy script which favors Austin and the other receivers. With everyone going to Downs this week, I think pivoting to the lower owned Austin could be the better move.
Other Considerations:
Justin Jefferson ($9,600)
Tyreek Hill ($9,200)
Stefon Diggs ($8,100)
Keenan Allen ($7,900)
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)
AJ Brown ($7,700)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
Chris Olave ($7,100)
Tee Higgins ($6,800)
Michael Pittman ($6,500)
Amari Cooper ($6,100)
Gabe Davis ($5,900)
Jordan Addison ($5,700)
DJ Moore ($5,600)
Zay Flowers ($5,600)
Tutu Atwell ($5,5,00)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,500)
Nico Collins ($5,100)
Tank Dell ($4,600)
Adam Thielen ($4,500)
Tyler Boyd ($4,100)
Joshua Palmer ($4,000)
Quentin Johnson ($3,700)
Josh Downs ($3,500)
Michael Wilson ($3,500)
Rondale Moore ($3,300)
TEs:
George Kittle ($5,100)
I don’t know if you will get a better price on Kittle going forward. He is due for a TD and with Deebo + Aiyuk both banged up, odds are with an easier matchup they sit one of these guys. Whenever that happens it thrusts Kittle into a much better role which he can capitalize on. He finally saw big targets last week and should again this week. The Cardinals were the worst TE defense in the league last year and didn’t do much to improve on it this year. If you don’t want to play him in DFS, he is +125 for any time TD scorer and +700 for first TD scorer of the game. I like both of those as well if you are a betting person. If both Aiyuk and Deebo play, then maybe move to my other choices or considerations.
Gerald Everett ($3,600)
Everett for the better part of the week had a Q tag and all the hype was on the giant Donald Parham as the TE play. Everett shed that Q tag and is ready to go this weekend. I think he is still their go to TE and a more electric playmaker. The loss of Mike Williams will likely open up some targets and the TE spot is so volatile that Everett just needs a TD to be in optimal conversation (no Kelce on the slate). This game has the 2nd highest implied game total on the slate and most everyone will play the other options in their stacks. Everett is a great low owned leverage play off of all of them. Not to mention the Raiders have had a bottom 5 TE defense to start this season.
Dalton Kincaid ($3,200)
I will continue to chase Kincaid who is bound to have a breakout game soon. The price tag is amazing and he is in the highest implied total game on the slate. Most everyone is going to go to the expensive options, but Kincaid could be the best leverage/cheap option with upside. Outside of last week when they didn’t even need to throw, he was getting solid targets. I expect his usage to go back to that if not higher. The Dolphins so far this year have had the 7th worst TE defense in the league, so look out for Kincaid to put himself on the map in this one.
Other Considerations:
Mark Andrews ($5,400)
Dallas Goedert ($4,400)
Pat Freiermuth ($3,400)
Donald Parham Jr. ($2,800)
DST
Eagles ($4,100)
Broncos ($3,700)
Buccaneers ($3,300)
Texans ($2,900)
Browns ($2,800)
