NFL - Giants vs. Seahawks Showdown Preview
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Check out their Giants vs. Seahawks Showdown video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
There is plenty of value to go around on this slate, so the optimal move will likely be to spend up at CPTN. There are so many ways to go with this, but DK Metcalf ($13,200 CPTN) would be the ideal first choice at CPTN. He has elite upside, a massive target share and conversion on those targets, an easy matchup all things considered. He is Geno’s go to target and should be featured more in the red zone. He only has 1 TD on the season, but the regression is coming. I think he is in for a TD tonight. His running mate, Tyler Lockett ($12,000 CPTN), is also in the conversation. After breaking down the Giant’s defensive backs, their starters Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins are both bigger CBs. They can contend with Metcalf size wise which might give Lockett the advantage this week. His shiftiness will create mismatches which will likely lead to more receptions. Figuring out TDs for this team will always be hard, but both of them are great CPTN options. Next up has to be Kenneth Walker IV ($16,200 CPTN) who gets the 5th worst rush defense in the league this week. They’ve already allowed 6 rush TDs, so I fully expect them to give one up to Walker this week who has been a TD machine so far. The backfield is essentially his with Charbs and Dallas spelling him periodically. This is another great spot for him to have a great week. Lastly, I will continue to go back to Darren Waller ($10,500 CPTN) who has the highest target share on the team by a wide margin. The Seahawks had the 2nd worst TE defense in the league last season, allowing nearly 18 DK points/game to the position. They didn’t do much to address it in the offseason and this might be the best TE they have faced this season. This is a “don’t get cute at CPTN” spot with plenty of cheap options.
Giants
The Giants are surprisingly only 1.5 point underdogs at home with a 23 point implied team total for this game. The Seahawks’ defense has its holes and can be exploited which makes me like Daniel Jones ($9,600) a lot. For his ceiling I actually think his price is very low. He has two games this season where he has looked terrible, but both of those defenses were in the elite territory. When he played the lowly Cardinals defense he went off for north of 30 DK points. We could see a similar ceiling here against statistically the 3rd worst defense in the league in terms of yards allowed. They should be able to move the ball well and he has plenty of targets to throw to (even if they are all fairly mid). The one that isn’t mid, Darren Waller ($7,000) will always be a favorite of mind for GPPs. His ceiling is massive with the target share he should command. He has had some disappointing performances so far, but that is not his fault. DJ was terrible in two of those games and that shouldn’t be the case here. Now the rest of the team will always be a toss up which for SD formats is always tough. On a main slate you can just fade them all and it probably won’t effect you. In this format you basically have to get it right. In terms of snap share, Darius Slayton ($5,200) leads the way and might be getting the most consistent target share as well. 5+ targets in every game is atleast consistent, but he hasn’t done anything with it so far. I would imagine the TDs will come, but he has never been a big TD threat in the past. I think he is fine and priced low enough to be worth rostering. I just don’t know if for GPPs he has the ceiling to get you there. Next up is Isaiah Hodgins ($5,800). It makes little to no sense as to why he is $600 more expensive than Slayton when he plays on fewer snaps and gets fewer targets. He is definitely a good GPP option because the ownership will me very low. However, I just don’t like his role this season. They look to want to get others the ball more, including Parris Campbell ($2,800) whose price is extremely low. I would imagine he gets a lot of love tonight just based on that price and it is warranted. His target share has increased week over week and is on the field in high pressure situations (played during 2 minute drill and late game last week). He is 3rd in snap share and 2nd for the WRs in target share by a wide margin. I love him in this spot, but so will the field so take that for what it is worth. You then have the after thoughts Jalin Hyatt ($2,000) and Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000). I think both are great GPP options with big play upside and will be lower owned. I would side with Robinson who was the WR1 for a majority of last year and came back last week to 5 targets on just 11 snaps. I expect that to go up in this game and settle around the 30-40% snap share mark unless he really breaks out (which I think he has the talent to do so). He is good leverage off of Campbell for sure. Hyatt is going to be a big play threat any time he is on the field. He might finally get the chance to showcase that, but they can only run out 3-4 WRs each play max and given he is a rookie I just don’t know if he will get enough plays to make a difference. Again, great for GPPs at low ownership but the snap share being lower than 20% and only receiving on average 1 target/game is extremely risky to go to. As for the backfield, it will be easier for Matt Breida ($6,400) to get going this week. He got a lucky TD last week to salvage an otherwise poor performance. This week they should be able to balance the run game a lot better so efficiency should increase drastically. It all comes down to if he can fall into the endzone again. At this price even if he doesn’t you might be able to get away with it, but given the Seahawks can’t stop the pass at all this season, it makes it hard for me to trust Breida who I don’t think is that great anyways. I wouldn’t look at Gary Brightwell ($4,800) who is wayyyy too expensive for a backup to the starting backup only getting around 10 snaps. Lastly, you have Daniel Bellinger ($200) who is the opposite of Brightwell: wayyy too cheap. I don’t know if you need to go this low, but he’s playing on around 60% of the snaps every week and will have a lucky TD one of these weeks. He is great leverage off of the punts down low. I also wouldn’t go to Sterling Shepard ($200) who is probably out of the rotation with the return of Wan’Dale so don’t get cute and play him tonight.
Seahawks
The Seahawks are 1.5 point favorites on the road with a 24.5 point implied team total. So far a lot of the production from this team has come from Geno Smith ($10,000) and like 3 players. The Giants defense has been a lot more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so maybe Geno at this price is a bit risky. If Kenneth Walker ($10,800) gets going and keeps piling up scores, Geno might not be able to hit his ceiling. I think Walker does keep up his crazy start in a cupcake matchup. I talked about him in CPTN section, so not much more to say other than I love him in this spot regardless of ownership. I still think Geno will get his, but as far as having a ceiling game I am cautiously optimistic. His top options are DK Metcalf ($8,800) and Tyler Lockett ($8,000) who haven’t missed a beat from last season. I like Metcalf more due to the consistency, but that isn’t to say Lockett can’t get there. It is hard to predict who will have the better game each week. I do think there is something to the CB size of the Giants making it an easier matchup for Lockett. Honestly you might be able to play both and still hit the optimal because their volume is that solid. After these 3 guys, things get really murky. I am very disappointed with how they want to use Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,000) who they don’t seem to want to get involved. His target share has gone down and the snap share has as well. His ADOT is an abysmal 2.7 YPT which is not good at all (Lockett and Metcalf both have ADOTs north of 10 YPT). He is a good GPP target because the ownership SHOULD be low. However, I don’t know if name value alone will boost his ownership a bit and make it tough to want to play him. Everything is going against him right now and things aren’t looking up. I will probably play him limited fashion because the talent is there. They just need to use him more. The only other WR on the roster getting play time is Jake Bobo ($200) who is playing on around 40% of the snaps (similar to JSN). The targets just aren’t consistent enough and chasing a TD from the week prior seems like a bad idea. I actually think he is talented, but this season he probably won’t be playable. The TE group for the Seahawks honestly might be the most confusing in the entire league. If I were to pick one it would be Noah Fant ($3,600) who is more of a receiving threat, but he is questionable to play. Colby Parkinson ($800) is also getting some targets, but his upside seems capped. At just $800 he is easy to get into lineups, but there are plenty of other spend down options I would go to over Parkinson. He is solid leverage in GPPs, but I don’t think it is good leverage. If Will Dissly ($400) plays then just go ahead and fade them all or plant your flag on just one and only play that one TE (I lean not rostering any of them if they all play, but Fant would be the preferred option). None of them have much upside and would need a TD to have a chance at being optimal. Lastly, I never really talked about the backfield past KW. Zach Charbonnet ($3,400) will get snaps and touches. He has seen his role increase week after week and got 9 carries last week. Was that because of it being a blowout? I don’t know. I think the talent is clearly there. He makes for good leverage with 80% of the field playing KW and most of the time people don’t double stack RBs in SD formats. I don’t think he will be necessary tonight, but I can see the path to him having a good game. You also have Deejay Dallas ($200) who might play on a few snaps. I would not play him though.
DST and K
Neither of these defenses give me any confidence at all so I would fade both in general. If I would have to choose I would go Seahawks DST ($4,400) over the Giants DST ($4,000) just because Daniel Jones is a lot more turnover prone and the Giant’s OL is swiss cheese bad. As for kickers, I actually think they hold some value in this one. I expect scoring to be plenty and both offenses have at times sputtered. That could lead to some FG opportunities which is what you want. I also think ownership will be limited with so many solid pay down options. Jason Meyers ($4,600) has been incredibly consistent to say the least and there is no reason to believe he slumps in this one. I think he is fine. Graham Gano ($4,200) is fine as well but I would lean to Meyers first.
My Narratives
Kenneth Walker > everyone
Daniel Jones > Geno Smith
Lockett > Metcalf
Waller >>> Slayton > Campbell > Wan’Dale > Hodgins > Hyatt
Fade the Giants backfield
3/3 or 4/2 both ways
Giants win in OT 27-21
