NFL - Packers vs. Lions Showdown Preview
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Check out their Packers vs. Lions Showdown video now!
Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
It is important to note we have a lot of uncertainty going into this game with multiple game time decisions. Both are in the backfield with Aaron Jones and David Montgomery both questionable. I am writing this article with the assumption that Christian Watson and Aaron Jones play and David Montgomery sits. With that said, my first reaction looking at the slate is there is essentially no value and everyone is priced up. This will be really tough to navigate with roster construction since you really don’t have anyone down low to give you any relief. That makes me lean towards a balanced build and mid priced CPTN. The first look would be Josh Reynolds ($9,300 CPTN) who is not getting enough praise for his play this season. He got blanked last week with 77% of the snaps. He came into the game banged up and could have been somewhat of a decoy, but there is no injury tag for this one. Some of the field might be scared away after the stinker last week, but I embrace the bounce back spot quite often. He had 13 targets in the first two games and now they will be in more of close game script compared to last week. I think he can get back to the W1/W2 output where he had double digit DK points in both. Next up is Christian Watson ($12,300 CPTN) who is just way too cheap for his upside. This team could really take the next step with him in the lineup to stretch the field and give them another big play maker. There isn’t any stats to back this up since it will be his first game of the season, but the Packers have looked good with Love under center. I guess it could be last season, Watson took them for 6/104 when he finally broke out. The last box to check will be ownership and he shouldn’t get too much at CPTN. People will be scared of him possibly getting eased back in. He will get general ownership though so keep that in mind. Lastly, Luke Musgrave ($9,600 CPTN) is in a great spot to finally break out. They have been so close to getting him his TD and he is due. The Lions have allowed the most DK points to TEs in the league this season. Some defenses just struggle/funnel production to that position and I would bet with Watson and Doubs now playing they try to stop them and say “make Musgrave beat us through the air”. He lets you squeak in one extra spend up option and possibly avoid the bottom barrel plays. If you want to spend up at CPTN, that is always fine, but the pricing really limits you tonight. Almost all of the usage is confined to $6,000 or higher players and the K’s are both massively overpriced.
Packers
The Packers are slight underdogs at home with a 22.25 point implied team total. No position player on the Packers that will see over 10 snaps on offense is cheaper than $5,000 and that is seriously concerning. Jordan Love ($9,800) has looked good to start the season and staged a very solid 4th quarter comeback last week which should have the locker room rallying around him. The Lions defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allowed 37 points to the Seahawks and the other two games their opponents did whatever they could to lose (Chiefs had like 10 drops and the Falcons suck). I think the Packers can pick them apart and my leans are towards one of Christian Watson ($8,200) or Luke Musgrave ($6,400) have a big game. I already talked about them so I won’t go into much detail on either. Watson will slot in as the WR1 regardless of health. I think they did the right thing letting him get healthy. As for Musgrave, the spot is just too juicy to want to pass up. Romeo Doubs ($8,800) will be the real wild card tonight. I do think Watson coming back and the massive price tag will scare people away. Outside of last game (12 targets), he was really TD dependent and with Jones + Watson coming back, he will likely take a secondary role. He makes for a good GPP leverage play, but I would advise against it unless they say Watson will be seriously limited tonight or on a snap count. Jayden Reed ($5,600) is priced way more affordably, will likely still get close to a 60% snap share if not north of that and was honestly getting more of a consistent target share compared to Doubs through the first 3 weeks. I would be much more inclined to play him with all the attention elsewhere in a much easier CB matchup. I just wish he was a bit cheaper. As for Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000), the price is way too high for someone that might just get 10-15 snaps. Plain and simple. The backfield is where it gets a little murky. AJ Dillon ($7,000) has looked bad in Jones’ absense to say the least. He had under 4 YPC in both games and only 1 target. It would be too obvious to say that when we all get off of him he breaks a big one and has like 10/100/2 at no ownership. He will likely go back to his original role and only spell Aaron Jones ($10,800) as long as Jones is fully healthy. He is way more electric and a better pass catcher than Dillon and should get the lions share of the usage going forward as long as he stays healthy. The only thing Dillon has going for him is his legs are built like trucks. The Lion’s rush defense has been pretty good and with Jones’ price being fairly high I think he could have middling ownership tonight. I, personally, might take advantage of that and have a lot of him but it more comes down to roster construction. Lastly, you could take a swing on Josiah Deguara ($200), Samori Toure ($600) and Patrick Taylor ($3,000) who will likely get a few snaps here and there. I think Deguara is the only one I would consider rostering because backup TEs always find there way on SD slates to be viable. I would advise against using any of them though.
Lions
The Lions are slight favorites with a 23.75 point implied team total. Pricing leans towards most of the field going to a 4/2 Lions build along with them being favorites. I think I might be with them. Jared Goff ($10,400) has been a little hit or miss so far this season, but the Packers defense is beat up right now especially in the secondary. His clear WR1, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,600) has the highest price on the slate and probably for a good reason. He is a target monster and I don’t think there is anyone in the Packers’ secondary that can stop him other than Jaire who I assume will be out tonight. The real issue with him is there is no value and he will be the highest owned player on the slate. It is tough to fit him in at UTIL better yet CPTN. I could see an avenue where he isn’t optimal, but that won’t deter me from playing him. His floor is just too solid and the ceiling is slate breaking. Sam LaPorta ($8,000) has quickly established himself as the defacto WR2 with Jamo out. Week after Week he has elevated his play and really broke out last week with 8/84/1. The Packers defense is bang average against TEs so there isn’t really anything to note there. I think he comes back down to earth here, but the target share is very promising. I think he will get some ownership just based on people chasing his game last week, but with everyone priced up I could see ownership being a lot flatter for this game. After those two it is very volatile as to who gets the looks. Josh Reynolds ($6,200) was the one getting the bulk of the targets outside of those two with 6 and 4 in the first two games, but also got none in the Atlanta game Week 3. I want to chalk that up to them controlling the game early and not having to throw. I fully expect him to bounce back and hopefully his ownership is lower after the poor Week 3 performance. Next up in the pecking order, Marvin Jones ($2,000) and Kalif Raymond ($5,200) basically split the WR3/4 snaps, but Marvin has lost a lot of the trust he had from Goff after the Week 1 stinker. He has been blanked with 0 targets in each of the last two games but still played on. Atleast he is extremely affordable so for savings he isn’t the worst idea. You won’t find anyone this cheap that gets 50% of the snaps and runs routes. As for Kalif he is more of the big play threat performing as the WR2 last week and playing solid the previous week. It seems like chasing to play Raymond priced up tonight which scares me, but all three of Jones/Reynolds/Raymond will be volatile. Goff just likes to spread it around if he isn’t focuses on ASRB, LaPorta or passing it to the RBs. I have to swerve unexpectedly with David Montgomery ($6,800) expected to play. That is going to muddle things sooooo much for this backfield. I wanted to love Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,600) and I still might. This could tank his ownership and in a close game script they could just lean on Gibbs in the pass game and on the ground anyways and let Montgomery get worked in to avoid re-injury. The argument for Monty is his price is so cheap and we saw what he can do with high volume. If they go back to the Week 1 split then there is a high chance that he is optimal. I could see him getting a ton of ownership though so keep that in mind. Sadly this takes Craig Reynolds ($2,800) who was shaping up to be a good value play if Montgomery were to be out. Lastly, Antoine Green ($200) and Brock Wright ($200) will get some snaps. Similar to Deguara, Wright is really the only one I would look to since the backup TEs always become a thing on SD slates, but I have zero confidence in either to do anything this week.
DST and K
I actually think this game involves a lot of scoring so I would be hesitant to play either the Packers DST ($3,600) or Lions DST ($4,000). If I had to choose one it would be the Lions just because Aiden Hutchinson and Co. can get to the QB and the Packers are likely to be without Bahktiari. He is the glue for that OL and the Lions also have applied the 2nd most QB hurries on the season (they were 2nd in hurries last year as well). That could mean trouble for Love tonight. As for the kickers I don’t really understand the algorithm that caused their prices to jump nearly $1,000. I think that alone will keep Anders Carlson ($4,600) and Riley Patterson ($4,800) at a lower ownership. I think both are fine, but they could be outpaced by the position players if the scores does start to add up.
My Narratives
I am locking in Luke Musgrave who will have a big game (Lions have been BAD against TEs so far)
Jahmyr Gibbs pops for 10+ rushes and 5+ catches with a positive game script
Marvin Jones > Josh Reynold > Kalif Raymond
Watson > Doubs
Tough to fit in both QBs. I side with Goff > Love
Marvin Jones for value might have to be the move.
3/3 or 4/2 stacks for both sides
Lions win 30-28 on a late FG
