NFL - Week 3 Reflections & Takeaways
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
**All article updates, injury news, cores and additional slate tips/strategies will be posted exclusively in the Discord or Twitter so feel free to join or follow!**
Week 1 is in the books and the offseason speculation and concerns have finally come to light. Every week, I want to highlight a key takeaway from each team to hopefully find some patterns to help us start creating new trends for each team. While each team might have plenty of things to take away from that week’s games, I want to detail one that the media not be as focused on. The hope is that we can recognize these patterns before the rest of the field does, giving us leverage in the coming weeks. No need to ramble… let’s dive right in!
Cardinals:
Wow what a win for the Cardinals this week. They just looked better than the Cowboys across the board and Josh Dobbs seems like the ultimate game manager to get them some wins this year. My biggest takeaway is James Conner is slowly falling into matchup proof territory. In good game scripts they are going to give him plenty of rushes and in trailing scripts they will use him out of the backfield in the passing game. He has had a quietly great start to the year and needs to be recognized for it. Next week against the 49ers will be the true test of how solid his floor is.
Falcons:
Desmond Ridder is not a starting caliber QB in this league. I think the jig is up. If the Falcons can’t get anything done on the ground they are almost screwed. Ridder is pretty much making his first read and if it isn’t there he is throwing to a guy (usually the RB) behind the line of scrimmage. It is so predictable and teams will start seeing what the Lions did to stop them and mimic that. I would be worried if I owned any of Pitts or London because they will tank you more often then they will win you weeks.
Ravens:
They got robbed of a win this week. The pass interference no call when the crosser got tackled before the ball even got to him on 3rd down might have been one of the worst misses I have seen in a while. Regardless, I think Zay Flowers supplanted any notion that he was anything less than the WR1. 10 targets with 8 catches is elite for the type of offense they run and if that can continue I think he could work his way into the top 24 WRs conversation. Granted, the matchup was perfect for him but he still went out and produced. The numbers aren’t as great given the yardage wasn’t there, but I like what I saw out of Flowers.
Bills:
Another bashing with the defense stealing the show. 4 INTs and 1 forced fumble while returning one INT for a TD is all they needed to do. The offense could have produced 0 points and they still would have won. Regardless, once again my biggest takeaway is James Cook is getting elite usage and is the clear RB1 in every way. Yes he isn’t getting the red zone looks but the games have already been over when Harris or Murray come in. There is no need to get Cook involved to punch it in. He looks the part and is exactly what this team has been missing the last few years.
Panthers:
Is Adam Thielen back? He looked amazing with Andy Dalton in a trailing script and this team will certainly be trailing often. 23 targets in the last two games with garbage time TDs in each. Garbage time points count the exact same as the other scores so you can’t discount it. I could see him quietly having a great year with 60% of his production coming in the 4th quarter when the Panthers are out of it. He is their clear WR1 and can’t be ignored.
Bears:
Justin Fields (2021-2023). Might as well start writing the eulogy now. He is just not capable of reading the defense and throwing the ball at the NFL level. Yes he is half way good as a fantasy asset but the Bears will never win anything with him at QB. It doesn’t help that he is mentally broken and probably won’t pull himself out of it any time soon. The Bears are clearly the worst team in the NFL right now.
Bengals:
I liked what I saw for the most part but it is still clear that Burrow is injured. They barely let him push the ball anything past 20 yards down field and when he did it was horribly inaccurate because he can’t put enough juice on it. Regardless, the biggest takeaway for me was they finally got the ball to their best player Ja’Marr Chase which was very nice to see. He got 15 targets and much of them were plays designed for him. Those that drafted him can finally unclench.
Browns:
Deshaun Watson finally bounced back in a good matchup. It was nice to see him move in the pocket well to extend plays and hit the open guy. This was exactly what the Browns needed to get over the loss of Chubb and rally around everyone else on the team. Jerome Ford looked pretty suspect with only a 1.8 YPC number, but they went up against a great rush defense. He got bailed out by two TDs. That probably won’t happen again. All of this to say my biggest takeaway was Elijah Moore is going to be a major factor in this offense. The stat sheet didn’t really showcase it with just 49 yards, but 9 targets and 9 catches is not something that happens often. I would look to him as a sneaky trade target in fantasy with Cooper frequently injured and the rest of the WRs being sub par on this team.
Cowboys:
Cowboys always find a way to look mediocre once or twice a season (usually in the playoffs) and man did they do it this week. Micah Parsons talked all that crap and got hit in the mouth. Biggest takeaway is Tony Pollard is completely matchup proof. Even in bad game scripts they continue to try to get him the ball which is great to see. He got vultured by a Dowdle TD but I can’t see that happening often this year. No worries for him going forward.
Broncos:
Is there really anything to say. This defense got throttled in one of the worst beatdowns of the last 50 years. Everyone sucked and are lucky they get to play the Bears next week to re-right the ship. If they don’t win that game then the season is over and they need to tank for Caleb Williams. Plain and simple
Lions:
Sam LaPorta very well could finish as a top 3 TE this season. He is already breaking records and is the clear 2nd target in this offense. Even when Jameson comes back I don’t think that will be changing. He has an elite skill set and is a mismatch across the board. He could be the next big breakout TE. All in all great win for the Lions this week where they were able to stop the Falcon’s rushing attack.
Packers:
What a comeback win for Jordan Love. Even without Aaron Jones they managed to pull out the win but there was a lot to be concerned about. I just don’t think AJ Dillon is a good RB. He has been extremely inefficient when given a significant role in the past and is really only suited as a change of pace for Jones when he returns. Also, the WR group once Watson returns is going to be very tough to read. I think he slots in with Wicks and Toure going back to the bench and Reed having his snaps lowered. This offense outside of those two (Jones and Watson) is going to be a crap shoot every week but they atleast have a good coach that can utilize everyone correctly.
Texans:
This rookie class for the Texans is the best they have had in franchise history. Huge hits on CJ Stroud, Tank Dell and Will Anderson will be corner stones for this team for years to come. This team has a bright young future and this year will make some waves. Yes they will lose some games just due to inexperience and being out played, but Stroud is going to do what he can to keep things competitive. They beat a good Jaguars team this past weekend mostly due to his success. Definitely try to get a piece of this offense in fantasy.
Colts:
A little but luck in Week 3 for the Colts who walk away with a win. Even without Richardson, they didn’t look too bad. They balanced the pass and run well enough and almost everyone produced. I liked what I saw out of Josh Downs who got double digit targets and 8 catches. He actually got the most targets on the team which is impressive for the rookie. He has elite route running abilities and would be a serious threat if he was a little bit bigger and could play the outside positions. Keep an eye on him to emerge in this offense in the coming weeks. Having Richardson could elevate him even further.
Jaguars:
Something about this team is off. They just got beat bad by the Texans who were without 2 of their starting CBs. They couldn’t seem to pass the ball which is concerning for Trevor Lawrence. His receivers didn’t do him any favors with multiple drops in big spots. Stroud just looked better than him. I think they will begin to click here soon, but they just don’t look good right now. Only positive seems to be Travis Etienne. If they can’t beat the Falcons then I will be on red alert.
Chiefs:
They beat the breaks off of the Bears this past week. I don’t think there is much to takeaway other than usage in blowouts. I think in blowout scripts we will still see more CEH and less Pacheco and McKinnon. We will see more Rashee Rice, Ross and Watson and less MVS + Toney + Skyy. It won’t be like this often, but next week they get the Jets so this type of script might be in play. This makes me like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Rashee Rice in the short term.
Raiders:
What the heck happened to Josh Jacobs? A career 4+ YPC type of player being held well under 3 YPC and just lacking all the explosiveness he looked to have prior. I don’t know what it is but now it is a bit concerning. The offense across mid field just falls apart and the offensive line isn’t the issue. They have some solid lineman. I don’t know if it is the system or Jimmy Garoppolo or game script but I would be looking to move him for name value after
Chargers:
The loss of Mike Williams is a big problem for the Chargers who were one play away from being 0-3 and the season being pretty much lost. However that isn’t even their biggest problem… they need Austin Ekeler back. Joshua Kelley is absolutely terrible. So ineffective with his carries and has done nothing to inspire hope. Drop him if you have him in fantasy and get off the train in DFS
Rams:
The team finally came back down to Earth with Puka and Kyren having subpar games. They had overshadowed Tutu Atwell most of the season, but last week they could not. It’ll be interesting to see if Stafford can support all 3 of Kupp, Puka and Tutu when Kupp returns because that is a surprisingly great trio of WRs. Tutu has take the next step finally and looks to be a great addition to this offense. 8+ targets in all 3 games is a sight to see and hopefully he can keep that up.
Dolphins:
This team is unstoppable. They’ve logged like 7 of the top 10 fastest recorded speeds of the season with De’Von Achane adding himself to the list with Tyreek, Waddle and Mostert. It will be very interesting to see the split in the backfield with his emergence because he is the perfect fit. He might have already peaked because I doubt he scores 50+ DK points again. However we know he has a ceiling and Mostert’s injury history could thrust him into a prominent role at any time.
Vikings:
Sadly this is likely to be a lost season for the Vikings, but not for fantasy purposes. Their defense is so bad that they will need to throw almost 70% of the time and have an arsenal of weapons to work with. Finally, Jordan Addison got the snap share bump and given the direness of the season there is zero reason he shouldn’t take over Osborn as the WR2 in all facets. He had a few redzone looks that just missed the mark and we all know he has big play ability. I think he could turn into a great fantasy option similar to Thielen from the last few years with matchup winning upside in fantasy.
Patriots:
They got an ugly win this past week against the Jets. Their defense is rock solid so no surprise they struggled to put up points. Biggest takeaway was they gave Ezekiel Elliott a lot more touches than anyone expected. He was efficient with them so no reason to believe they lessen the role now. I think going forward this could be a hot hand approach with Stevenson getting a slight decrease in volume. They want to keep him healthy for sure so it makes sense. It was just interesting to see after Mac Jones started the season hot throwing the ball that they back track and run the ball 40 times this past game. I guess it was just one of those games.
Saints:
They kind of blew this one, but the real blow was losing Derek Carr… or was it? Carr has looked okay so far, but the return of Kamara and Jameis Winston expected to start could elevate this offense. We all know he isn’t afraid to chuck it which could be good for the WRs. I could see Chris Olave having some big games coming up with Jameis. He has double digit targets in every game but has yet to record a TD (only trailing Puka Nacua in targets without a TD) and Kamara should open things up. Look for this team to take a step forward this week in a pivotal matchup against the Buccaneers.
Giants:
This team needs Barkley back. They looked anemic without him against the 49ers and were lucky to even score. This team is going to be a nightmare to predict going forward even with Barkley, so I would be looking to trade Darren Waller in fantasy while he is healthy. Wait for a big game and shell him off because he will likely lose you just as many weeks as he will win you and that’s no fault of his own. They just don’t have the weapons to sustain drives at times.
Jets:
Just get a new QB. Zack Wilson is not good. Breece Hall needs more touches. That is all.
Eagles:
The script finally flipped with AJ Brown taking over the lions share of the targets. However, that isn’t what I am most intrigued by. We all knew this game was going to come eventually. D’Andre Swift has taken over as the RB1 on this team and it is definitely deserving. He is a walking 5+ yards every time you give him the ball. It doesn’t matter if he can’t pass block when Hurts is mobile enough to get out of the pocket quickly. That isn’t to take away from Kenneth Gainwell. I think he is talented as well, but they need to get Swift involved heavily. The Lions probably should have just kept him and used the 12th pick on someone other than Gibbs who they don’t even use properly.
Steelers:
I think the only takeaway continues to be the backfield with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is going to be very unreliable. They essentially split time 50/50 with Najee getting more rushing work and Warren getting more receiving work. In positive game scripts you will see Najee do more and trailing game scripts Warren do more. In DFS that is how I would play them: depending on the matchup. In fantasy I would be hesitant to play either of them.
49ers:
Even without Aiyuk this team looked the part. They are so deep on both sides of the ball it is insane. It was nice to see George Kittle be a big part of this offense and Elijah Mitchell come some touches again. Honestly Everyone is looking good going forward. I have said a few times in these that everyone can’t do well every week but last week they managed. When Aiyuk returns, I would imagine that the usage gets distributed again, but in all this team looks ready to contend for a Super Bowl
Seahawks:
Kenneth Walker is the truth. Even with only 51% of the snaps he was incredibly efficient and amassed over 5 YPC and nearly 60 receiving yards. If they are going to use him in the pass game this steadily then he is almost a lock to be a top 5-10 RB this year. I think my biggest takeaway though is Jaxon Smith-Njigba is not going to be used how we thought. His ADOT is incredibly low and he is not on the field in 2 WR sets. He would need a Lockett or DK injury to really be viable, but is barely startable right now.
Buccaneers:
I am really wishy washy on how I feel about this team across the board. While Rachaad White is getting elite usage, but his expected yards gained numbers are like bottom 5 in the league. As for the passing game, Chris Godwin is getting a healthy number of targets, but the ADOT is low and Baker just doesn’t look to want to him in the red zone or down field. I think it could be fools gold with White who I am starting to think will be a flash in the pan. As for Godwin, I do think he will have his spike weeks, but being the WR2 in a somewhat poor offense isn’t the best. It is likely that we all over drafted Godwin this offseason with hopes he would pepper Godwin with targets and be closer to a 1A/1B with Evans.
Titans:
There is a lot to be afraid about for Derrick Henry, but I think it all comes down to game script. People are completely writing him off after one bad week when he did the same thing last year then started going off down the stretch. You just have to remember his playoff schedule is beautiful, playing the Texans twice and Seattle whose defense leaves a lot to be desired. He will struggle if they get down big, but the two games where he had fewer than 50% of the snaps were against great rush defenses (NO and CLE). I think he should rebound nicely against the Colts and Ravens, so don’t panic just yet on him.
Commanders:
What can I say. They got destroyed across the board this past week with 5 turnovers and no one looked good. It was weird to see Antonio Gibson get work again even after he fumbled (again), so maybe he is out of the doghouse for now. Brian Robinson didn’t get the same usage, but the game was all but over quickly. He still had 7 YPC which is elite, but no receiving work was concerning. Regardless of this, my biggest takeaway is that sadly Jahan Dotson is just not getting any bit of he usage we thought he would. Only 4 targets in a trailing script is not good enough from a guy you likely drafted to play in your flex. He likely needs an injury to some pass catcher to even be viable again.
