NFL - Week 3 MNF Top Plays
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Now, given this is another 2 game slate things should be similar to last week. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. So I can touch base on both games, I am going to write this with the 2 game slate in mind. At the end I will give my narrative for both games to apply to the Showdown Slates if that is what you want to play. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QBs:
Matthew Stafford ($5,600)
My first option tonight is going to be the gun slinger Stafford. They are letting him throw the ball so much to start the year. He is averaging 43 pass attempts/game which is tops in the league. He has some reliable targets to get the ball too even without Kupp which he can lean on here. The Bengals have started the season against two predominately run heavy teams and have lost both. I think they are still susceptible to being beat through the air and Stafford isn’t afraid to throw. I also think the Bengals keep a bit more competitive regardless of the QB. This could turn into a shootout and Stafford is incredibly cheap compared to Hurts and Burrow (if he plays). I like him a lot tonight in a team stack with Puka + one of Atwell/Williams/Higbee.
Baker Mayfield ($5,500)
Another QB who has not been afraid to throw so far. The Bucs are letting him push the ball downfield with him leaning heavily on his big target Mike Evans. The Eagles secondary has, on a per game basis, already given up the most pass TDs/game and 3rd most pass yards/game on the year. Losing both their OC and DC to other teams is proving to be somewhat of an issue. I see no reason to believe Baker can’t continue his passing ways in a game script that will need him to throw. This is a surprisingly good offense and being out home will definitely help. Pair Baker with one of Evans or Godwin + White/Palmer.
Other Considerations:
Jalen Hurts ($8,000)
RBs:
Kyren Williams ($5,700)
DK needs to put some respect on his name. This price is just too low for the highest usage RB on this slate. Baltimore and Cleveland opened up the season running all over the Bengals. No reason with no Akers that Kyren can’t do the same. I think he is fine even paired with Stafford given it is a 2 game slate. He is averaging 17.5 touches/game and he has room to grow on that in this one. I think they balance the run and the pass here with him getting involved in the pass game as well. I will say the efficient numbers need to come up a little bit with under 4 YPC in the first two games. Maybe the TD regression will come but the game environment and defense he plays leads me to believe that will hold for the mean time.
D’Andre Swift ($5,800)
This is one I am a bit scared of due to Sirianni being a “hot hand” type of coach. Well Swift right now has the hot hand coming off of a 175 yard rushing performance and looked great in all facets of the game. Gainwell is coming off of an injury which could limit him and Swift will certainly get the first crack at it. Why I am scared is if Swift doesn’t continue the strong play and Gainwell comes in with a few big runs, they will go right back to Gainwell. That’s just the way they always done it. I think all of these RBs will get similar ownership so there isn’t much leverage to be had unless you go to a backup RB. Even against a tough rush defense in Tampa, I think Swift can get the job done.
Other Considerations:
Joe Mixon ($6,300)
Rachaad White ($5,900)
Kenneth Gainwell ($4,900)
Sean Tucker ($4,100)
WRs:
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)
Given his slow start I am shocked Chase is the highest priced option at the WR position. That alone could make his ownership lower which is a good spot to get leverage. Chase hasn’t exactly been bad with 17 targets and 10 catches in the first two games. The problem is they have yet to try to stretch the field with him. I think if they sit Burrow tonight that will allow them to try to push the field even with Jake Browning which should help Chase. Zac Taylor has to try to use him in a more creative way which I think they try to do tonight. The Rams secondary is definitely the weak spot that the Bengals can attack. Someone on this offense has to have a big game if they want to win and I would bet on it being Chase tonight. This is more of a hunch without any substance so proceed with caution, but I have a good feeling about this one.
Chris Godwin ($5,700)
Another leverage spot that I think could pay off in a big way. The Bucs have leaned on Evans for the first few weeks but this could be the week that flips. The targets are there and I think Evans gets more coverage from Slay. That will open things up for Godwin to feast over the middle of the field which is where the Eagles have been more vulnerable anyways (Addison and Bourne did work in that role). A big game for Godwin is coming soon and I think it could be tonight. He still has nearly a 20% target share to lean on so at the least he can still provide you a solid floor.
Other Considerations:
AJ Brown ($7,400)
Devonta Smith ($7,300)
Puka Nacua ($6,400)
Mike Evans ($6,300)
Tee Higgins ($6,200)
Tutu Atwell ($5,000)
Tyler Boyd ($3,500)
Trey Palmer ($3,100)
TEs:
Drew Sample ($2,500)
This one could fall flat on its face, but Irv Smith is likely out tonight and we have seen in the past Drew Sample get a good workload in that situation. He is the flat minimum and basically lets you get whoever else you could want in your lineups. I totally understand if you don’t want to go here, but it makes things very easy when constructing your rosters. I think I like him more if Jake Browning plays honestly because they would get the work together in practices. He might be more comfortable going to him over the other starters (even if the play isn’t schemed that way). All he needs is a few catches to be viable and a TD makes him almost immediately optimal.
Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
There is no way he continues to sputter for long. After a 0 Week 1, he got 7 targets and 6 catches last week. The only problem was he accumulated just 22 yards on those catches. His role so far has not been the same, but the talent is still there. I don’t think the Eagles will run the ball at the same clip as they did last week so there is an opportunity to rebound. He is by far the best TE option for tonight and it isn’t hard to fit him in. The icing on the cake is the Bucs gave up the 8th most TE DK points in the league last season and 5th most TDs to the position. I like Goedert to get on the board tonight with an easier matchup.
Other Considerations:
Tyler Higbee ($4,300)
Cade Otton ($3,000)
Mitchell Wilcox ($2,500)
My Showdown Narratives:
Buccaneers vs. Eagles:
Baker at his price is a steal
Trey Palmer and Devon Thompkins at just $600 and $200 respectively are great punt pieces
Brown > Smith
Godwin > Evans (at their respective prices)
White and Swift are over priced with the rush defenses being solid
I lean White > Swift but it is very close
Both kickers are in play, but I would only play the Eagles DST
3/3 or 4/2 stacks both ways
Eagles win a close one 24-21
Bengals vs. Rams:
One of Wilcox or Sample feel like a must
If Burrow plays I like going to him in GPPs over Stafford
Chase > Mixon > Higgins
I really like Kyren Williams and Puka but they are hard to get to
I have no issue going down to Tutu and fade the massive Puka chalk for leverage
One of Higbee or Van Jeff will do well, but good luck predicting which one it will be
4/2 Bengals stacks
Bengals win 30-23
