NFL - Week 2 Top Plays
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QBs:
Justin Herbert ($7,000)
You have to look at the entire slate here for why I like some of these plays. This slate features multiple QBs that underperformed in Week 1 and the field will expect them to bounce back like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Joe Burrow. All 3 are in good game scripts this week which should mean they get massive ownership. Justin Herbert falls right in the middle of all of them and might be completely overlooked when in reality he should be the guy to go to. The media is painting the Chargers as choke artists so that alone might have some of the casuals off of Herbert. They play the Titans who gave up the most pass yards in the league last season and started off this season by giving up 300 yards to Derek Carr. There is no reason to believe that with Ekeler likely out that they continue just lean on the run game. No they have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, invested a lot of draft capital into Quentin Johnson and should air it out in this one. They have a healthy implied team total of 24 points, again the Titans defense sucks and if you do stack Herbert you have two of the easiest run backs on the slate in Derrick Henry or DeAndre Hopkins (if he plays which I think he should). This is my “don’t get cute” play of the week and you can probably get him at decently low ownership. I do also want to mention that if Ekeler is out then there will be a solid contingency that will play Josh Kelley which probably keeps them off of Herbert (the field typically doesn’t like to stack RB with QB). Just so many things going for Herbert this week.
Daniel Jones ($6,000)
Sandwiched right between Goff and Smith who will get a ton of ownership, you have Daniel Jones who put up an absolute stinker in Week 1. One big thing that I don’t think enough people take into account is the Cowboys defense might be the best in the league. The Giants got rocked hard early in that game which I think made it incredibly hard for the Giants to do anything. Now the Giants get a complete reset against a team that legit could be the worst in the league. Daniel Jones has massive rushing upside. He got 13 rush attempts Week 1 and last season was very similar. Saquon is being touted as a chalk RB option this week so I don’t many people will go to Jones. He is easy to stack with Waller and can become very affordable if you stack him with any of the WRs. I would prefer Slayton or Hodgins, but Waller is the first look. The Giants have a healthy implied team total in 22.75 points which has grown from the initial line of 22. I just think this could a very sneaky play at low ownership where everyone forgets how good Jones was last year from a DK scoring perspective.
Baker Mayfield ($5,100)
This is the one that I think could come back to bite me in the rear, but the Chicago defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed last week against an offense that featured a bunch of rookies, second year players and Aaron Jones. If those guys can do it then why can’t the Bucs. Baker looked very solid against Minnesota Week 1 and wasn’t afraid to air it out. He is easy to stack with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, will be extremely low owned with most of the field paying up at QB, the Vegas implied team total line opened at 23.25 points and the run game for the Bucs looked atrocious Week 1. I think they lean more on the passing game here in what should be a close game. The Bears are in a must win spot with tempers flaring in the locker room and they face Chiefs the following week. They won’t want to start out 0-3. Lastly, this is such an affordable stack with some cheap run backs in DJ Moore, Mooney or even one of the RBs.
Other Considerations:
Josh Allen ($7,900)
Lamar Jackson ($7,700)
Joe Burrow ($6,900)
Trevor Lawrence ($6,700)
Anthony Richardson ($6,300)
Jared Goff ($6,200)
RBs:
Josh Jacobs ($7,100)
My expectation here is that the Raiders will be without Jakobi Meyers which essentially leaves the offensive usage to just Jacobs and Adams. I anticipate the gameplan to be to churn the clock and keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands who is going to be motivated to bounce back after a poor first game. Jacobs didn’t look the best in Week 1 and missed a lot of the preseason. For those reasons alone, I think he will come in vastly under owned compared to the other pay up RB options. The carries and usage will be there and the Jets were breaking big runs all night long against the Bills last week. I think its a great set up for Jacobs to have a big bounce back game that might go under the radar. The only real concern is the Raiders have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate at just 18.25 points, but this is more of a volume play anyways.
James Cook ($6,100)
I am very impressed with what I saw from Cook in Week 1 against a tough Jets defense. He was heavily involved in the pass game which is very nice to see and the Raiders defense is not going to cause any problems. I think there will be a lot more ownership on the Josh Allen/Diggs or Davis stack compared to just going to Cook. The efficiency should go up in a much easier matchup and the Raiders gave up the 7th most rush TDs in the league with 20. I fully expect one of Josh Allen, James Cook or Damien Harris is going to rush for a TD and I would rather take the leverage in Cook over the expensive Allen stack. The Bills have the highest implied total on the slate and I think Cook can be apart of contributing to that this week.
Zack Moss ($4,700)
This is definitely a risky one because if he comes in with high projected ownership I would full fade him. However, if the ownership is going to be low with everyone spending down at RB with Kelley, the Ravens RBs or going back to a Rachaad White, I will gladly go to Moss in an easy matchup. The Ravens ran all over Houston last week and I think the Colts can too. There identity coming into the season was likely to do just that and let Richardson develop as a passer slowly. Deon Jackson might have put up the worst performance in NFL history with 13 rushes for 14 yards and two fumbles… Moss was a full participant at practice to end the week so I expect him to be active and get a vast majority of the carries. For just $4,700, he allows you to do so much with your lineup. I do fear that he will get steamed up in ownership heading into Sunday which makes me hesitant. I think the risk is worth the possible reward if he is going to be low owned.
Other Considerations:
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900)
Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Bijan Robinson ($7,900)
Tony Pollard ($7,500)
Derrick Henry ($7,400)
Travis Etienne ($6,900)
James Conner ($6,200)
AJ Dillon ($5,900)** If Aaron Jones is OUT
David Montgomery ($5,800)
Kenneth Walker ($5,800)
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)
Dameon Pierce ($5,600)
Rachaad White ($5,500)
Gus Edwards ($5,300)
Joshua Kelley ($5,000)** If Austin Ekeler is OUT
WRs:
CeeDee Lamb ($7,700)
There are so many factors for why Lamb is going to be criminally low owned this week. First off the price is just way too high. He is just $100 cheaper than Amon Ra, $200 cheaper than Chase and $300 cheaper than Diggs. All 3 will get massive ownership this week in big game environments. Then you get the narrative that “CeeDee is going up against Sauce he can’t do well”. Last week Diggs went 10/102/1 against Sauce… he isn’t being used to shadow like he did a good bit last year. Now the positives for Lamb. Brandin Cooks is already banged up so you can expect him to get even more of the target share in the event he is out (I expect him to be out). The Cowboys will not be winning 26-0 at half and basically just run the ball the entire game. While the Jets are in a vulnerable spot with Rodgers, I still think talent alone will keep them in this game. This is definitely a high risk, high reward play and if he goes off you are going to jump close to 90% of the field that opt for Diggs, Chase and/or Amon Ra. I even like the idea of pairing Lamb with one of them as a one off.
Tee Higgins ($6,400)
There is a legit 0% chance that Higgins ever again in his career gets 8 targets and converts on none of those targets. This game will be high powered and I think a lot of the field will just go up to Chase in the game stack given the price for Higgins is still a bit high. I do think he will garner some ownership, but most will prefer to go down to Pittman and Evans who vastly outperformed him in Week 1. The Ravens secondary is already banged up with The game conditions Week 1 for the Bengals were just all around bad with the rain and facing a tough Browns defense. Conditions will be improved and the pace of play for this game should be up tempo. Again, these plays I write about are always more on the boom bust side of things, but we all know Higgins can do when he booms.
Zay Jones ($4,700)
Jones could certainly get some ownership for this weekend, but I am fine eating that ownership and getting different elsewhere. All of the numbers favor Jones being the WR2 over Christian Kirk and it honestly is shocking. He played on the most snaps and ran the most routes of any WR on this team even including Ridley Week 1. He is a great blocker which will keep him on the field and this matchup against the Chiefs is just about as good as it well get. The Chiefs will be very giddy to right the ship and revenge their loss so I expect the Jags will have to throw a ton in this spot. I think his role is definitely sustainable so I am more than willing to go back down the well with Jones is a perfect game script for success. The Jags also have a great team implied total of 23.75 points. He is a great one off or as a pair with Trevor.
Other Considerations:
Stefon Diggs ($8,000)
JaMarr Chase ($7,900)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
Davante Adams ($7,600)
Calvin Ridley ($7,200)
Keenan Allen ($7,100)
DK Metcalf ($7,000)
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,700)
Michael Pittman ($6,300)
Mike Evans ($6,200)
Tyler Lockett ($6,100)
Gabe Davis ($5,800)
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800)
Mike Williams ($5,700)
Deebo Samuel ($5,600)
Drake London ($5,000)
Zay Flowers ($5,000)
Marquise Brown ($4,900)
Jahan Dotson ($4,900)
Nico Collins ($4,800)
Tutu Atwell ($4,700)** If Puka Nacua is OUT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500)
Treylon Burks ($4,500)
Darnell Mooney ($4,400)
Darius Slayton ($4,400)
Hunter Renfrow ($3,900)** If Jakobi Meyers is OUT
Quentin Johnson ($3,900)
Josh Reynolds ($3,700)
Alec Pierce ($3,500)
Jayden Reed ($3,400)
Josh Downs ($3,400)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,300)
Michael Wilson ($3,300)
Tank Dell ($3,200)
TEs:
Zach Ertz ($3,500)
It didn’t take Ertz long to put his name back in the pool of playable TEs. A lot of the offseason there was speculation that he would be slowly worked back into the offense following his ACL tear last season and maybe Trey McBride would get/takeover as the TE1. Well, Week 1 Ertz went out and solidified his spot with 10 targets. The output from those targets was minimal with only 21 yards, but you don’t chase the yards you chase the opportunities and he got plenty. I think he will be an easy dumb off for Dobbs to target when things break down and he should remain a very consistent TE. The Giants is nothing to be afraid of, but they did add Isaiah Simmons who has made a career out of stopping opposing TEs. I don’t think that should be a major factor so I am going right back to Ertz. We could still see Andrews and Kelce out this week which will leave a lot of the ownership going to other pay down TE options. Look to Ertz as a reliable, lower owned play this week.
Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)
I do think he comes in with a decent amount of ownership, but again if Andrews and Kelce are out it my be kept at bay. Kincaid was a major factor in the offense Week 1 and did nothing to make me think he would be an afterthought due to Knox until mid way through the season. The Bills ran a 2 TE set at the highest rate in the league Week 1 with Knox and Kincaid playing on 80% of the snaps each. They were not kidding when they said they would use Kincaid in the slot which will cause a ton of matchup issues. Against the Raiders he should have no problem exploiting that matchup and getting solid looks. At this price you can’t really go wrong. He just has to outpace the other cheap TEs who in their own right are in good spots this week.
Luke Musgrave ($3,200)
Similar to Kincaid, I think Musgrave has a shot at going into Week 2 with decent ownership. I think it is decent worth stomaching because Musgrave is going to be a major part of this offense. I am going to assume Aaron Jones will be out this week so I think they lean on the passing attack more than the RBs. Musgrave really impressed Week 1 with a good ADOT and was a poor throw away from having a 4/80/1 stat line compared to the 3/50 line he finished with. The Falcons just let Hayden Hurst be the optimal TE for the week last week so why can’t Musgrave do that this week? I think the only concern is any team playing the Falcons is likely to have a low time of possession. They just run the ball so much. The Packers looked efficient enough with Love that I think they will still get their chances and Musgrave can hopefully be apart of that. I don’t think we see Doubs snag 2 TDs again like he did last week and Jones is not going to be in the picture. The outlook for Musgrave is great this week.
Other Considerations:
Darren Waller ($5,500)
George Kittle ($5,300)
Evan Engram ($4,800)
Kyle Pitts ($4,200)
Sam LaPorta ($3,900)
Noah Gray ($3,400)** If Travis Kelce is OUT
Jake Ferguson ($3,300)
Isaiah Likely ($3,200)** If Mark Andrews is OUT
Dawson Knox ($3,100)
Adam Trautman ($3,000)
Michael Mayer ($2,700)
