NFL - Week 2 MNF Top Plays
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Now, given this is a 2 game slate things might be a bit different, but the overall analysis should remain the same. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. So I can touch base on both games, I am going to write this with the 2 game slate in mind. At the end I will give my narrative for both games to apply to the Showdown Slates if that is what you want to play. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QBs:
Derek Carr ($6,000)
Carolina’s defense took a massive hit with Jaycee Horn getting put on IR which will give Olave, MT and Shaheed a much easier time than if Horn was active. Carr looked great Week 1 when then running game couldn’t get going and we all know he isn’t afraid to throw the ball. You only have 4 QBs to choose from and my first option would easily be Carr. The other 3 have WR injuries that make it hard to want to go to. I think the final kicker is the Saints also have the highest implied team total of 23 points. Give me Carr and his weapons to take care of the Panthers in this one.
Deshaun Watson ($6,400)
My second QB option would be the more expensive Watson who will be without his top target Amari Cooper tomorrow. That is the one thing that makes me knock him down to my 2nd favorite, but I still really do like him. I think this team will rely on the running game to chew away the clock which could limit Deshaun’s upside. The Steelers secondary got torched by the 49ers Week 1 which makes me want to target that again with Watson. He still has the weapons to get the job done, but the Browns offense is nothing compared to the 49ers. If you don’t want to go for Carr, Watson should be your next option who has some easy stacking options in this one as well.
RBs:
Miles Sanders ($5,700)
Sanders should not be the cheapest starting RB on this slate. He still got 22 touches in Week 1 and was a TD away from having a fantastic week. He has always been an efficient runner and did nothing Week 1 to make me think he isn’t anymore. The Saints did hold Derrick Henry to just 63 rush yards Week 1, but Henry wasn’t featured like any of us would have expected. I think Sanders could be good leverage in this one with a cheap price tag.
Nick Chubb ($8,500)
The only reason I don’t like Chubb more is the price tag. The usage is just so high so he should easily be able to pay it off. Week 1 we saw the Pittsburgh get gashed by CMC and Chubb is just as talented. There is enough value to get to Chubb and multiple other pay up options. Don’t get cute on this one.
Other Considerations:
Jamaal Williams ($6,000)
WRs:
Chris Olave ($7,200)
You have the value to go to Olave and with Cooper out this is a no brainer. He is the clear WR1 on this team even if you think MT has the talent to get back to an elite level. He got 10 targets in Week 1 and I expect him to get similar here. He should tear apart this Carolina secondary that is already banged up and was the weak part of their defense even at full strength. In his short career, he already has 25 targets in 2 games against the Panthers. Look for him to extend that here.
Elijah Moore ($4,500)
He might be chalky but I have no problem eating that. Without Cooper I fully expect Moore to get a majority of his target share. His price tag makes it very easy to go to him and even in Week 1 they were trying to get him the ball. He got 7 targets and 2 carries which is pretty solid. I expect that to hold if not increase in this one. Like I said with Watson, the Steelers defense got gashed in Week 1. I hope the same thing will happen in this one because I will have a lot of this offense on the slate.
Calvin Austin III ($3,500)
Do you even need to go this low? Probably not. Just looking at pricing you can build your lineup and outside of TE and DST not go below $5,000. However, I have to talk about Austin and his role for tonight. Week 1 we saw Diontae Johnson get hurt and one of the biggest benefactors was Calvin Austin. He got a 56% snap share even with Diontae playing on close to 50% of the snaps. He got 6 targets as well which was very unexpected. Austin should see around 70% of the snaps and a similar target share which would make him a very interesting play in this one. Even if you have around $5,000 left at WR, I see no reason why you can’t burn the salary and go down to Austin to get unique.
Other Considerations:
Michael Thomas ($5,500)
George Pickens ($5,400)
Allen Robinson ($4,300)
Rasheed Shaheed ($4,200)
Adam Thielen ($3,900)
Donovan Peoples-Jones ($3,700)
TEs:
Juwan Johnson ($4,100)
TE is going to be an absolute crap shoot on this slate with no TE standing out. Every defense from this game actually defended the TE position well in Week 1 against some solid TEs as well (Pitts, Kittle, Irv Smith and Chig). I will play the ownership game with Johnson and here is why. I expect Njoku to get some ownership with Cooper out and the same for Pat Freiermuth with Johnson out. Given Hayden Hurst was the optimal TE on the main slate Week 1, he should also get some ownership. That leaves Johnson sandwiched between all of them and will likely be the lowest owned of the bunch. He still got 5 targets in Week 1 which is pretty solid for that offense. It was really nice to see Taysom Hill not get a ton of TE snaps as well, so it looks like Johnson will be the TE1 for this team going forward. Again, TE looks to be a crap shoot with all of them looking to be in similar spots. That means go with the cheapest or play the lowest owned which is what I will do.
Other Considerations:
David Njoku ($4,700)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,500)
Hayden Hurst ($4,000)
My Showdown Narratives:
Panthers vs. Saints:
Chris Olave > everyone
Fade Bryce Young
There is almost no value so cheap CPTN seems like the way to go
Saints DST, Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo are the punts I would look to
Jamaal Williams will score a TD
4/2 or 5/1 Saints stacks
Saints win 27-13
Steelers vs. Browns:
Deshaun Watson > everyone
Do whatever you can to get both Watson and Chubb in your lineup
I like a mid range CPTN like Elijah Moore or Calvin Austin to fit that pairing in
Jaylen Warren, both Ks, Browns DST and Harrison Bryant are the punts I would look to
4/2 Browns or 3/3 stacks
Browns win 20-10
