NFL - Eagles vs. Vikings Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
The pricing structure is a lot flatter than some of the previous SD slates to start the season, so I really don’t think you need to punt at CPTN. There are guys with massive upside priced affordably that you can easily get at CPTN so I would go that route. However, if that is something you are interested in there are a few players that I think could be fine at CPTN that are fairly cheap. D’Andre Swift ($6,000 CPTN) is criminally underpriced for the role he could play tonight. Kenneth Gainwell is OUT which means Swift SHOULD be the next up in the pecking order to get the volume. I don’t trust anything that comes out of Sirianni’s mouth anymore when it comes to this backfield, but someone has to get the bulk of the touches and this defense is not good at all. It could be Scott or Penny that get the lions share of the touches, but I am going plant my flag on Swift for this game to bounce back after the disappointing Week 1. That brings me to my other cheap CPTN which is KJ Osborn ($7,500 CPTN). He played on 91% of the offensive snaps last week compared to Addison’s 56%. I think Addison will slowly start to catch up to him, but Osborn, in my opinion, is the clear WR2 and is priced way too cheap for how much the Vikings are likely going to have to throw. The attention will certainly go to Jefferson who likely will get blanket coverage or Darius Slay for the majority of the game. The big kicker for me is James Bradberry will be out tonight which leaves the Eagles very vulnerable at the CB position. I don’t like chasing a rookie who really only had one big play to supply all of their points. Give me Osborn where all of the numbers point towards him and he won’t be as highly owned. If you want to use those guys at UTIL and not at CPTN I get that. They probably make more sense there anyways. Just in the off chance they get the TD or get more volume then Vegas suggests, you will want to capitalize on that possibly at CPTN so you can get the top priced plays in as well who will also produce. As for who I think has the best shot at being an optimal CPTN, Jalen Hurts ($17,100 CPTN) is criminally underpriced for the upside he provides. I am shocked he isn’t the same price tag as Jefferson. I understand he had a disappointing Week 1, but come on the rushing upside is unmatched and they will have to throw more in this game compared to against the Patriots where they got out to a massive lead and coasted the rest of the way. He will have a ton of ownership at CPTN tonight, but I think it is warranted. The next guy that I think could be super sneaky at CPTN is Dallas Goedert ($8,700 CPTN). He was targeted just once for zero catches Week 1 which is a complete outlier game. He is the for sure 3rd option in this offense and I would be very very surprised if they don’t try to feature him in this one. Remember last year when Devonta Smith put up a 0 Week 1? Well following that he popped for 7/80 and 8/169/1. Last year Goedert had 5/82 in the one meeting he played against Minnesota and I think he can match that if not beat it in this one. Lastly, sticking with the TEs, TJ Hockenson ($10,200 CPTN) is also underpriced given the spot he is in tonight. I swung and missed last SD on Diggs being shut down by Sauce but I am not afraid to go right back down the well. I am a little bit concerned that the Eagles will follow a similar game plan as last year for slowing down Justin Jefferson and it definitely worked. Not to mention Kirk is atrocious in prime time games. I could see Hockenson being leaned on heavily here and the stats from Week 1 support that. He was second one the team with 9 targets and I see that continuing here. He should probably be closer in price to Devonta Smith than being only $400 more than Addison.
Eagles
The Eagles are 6.5 point favorites coming into this game with a 28 point implied team total, playing at home, face a team that just lost to Baker and Bucs and has a QB that is seriously bad in prime time games… I think this could be a spot where they come out and smash the Vikings just like they did last year. I don’t want to waste your time here because there is one thing everyone wants to know for the Eagles tonight and that is who is going to be the lead back. Let me go grab my magic lamp and give it a rub so the genie can tell me who will be the play tonight. Literally anyone saying they know is lying. All of D’Andre Swift ($4,000), Boston Scott ($2,200) and Rashaad Penny ($1,600) will get run tonight and my bet is whoever starts out hot will get the majority of the touches. I would like to say they give Swift the first crack at it and we all know the talent he brings to the table. He only got 3 touches in Week 1, but they used Gainwell as the main back and with him out it is completely up in the air. It would be such an Eagles thing to do for Penny to be a healthy scratch and then come in and get 15+ carries for this game. He has boasted a career 5.7 YPC number that puts him in elite territory. He just can’t stay healthy is his problem. If Swift starts out slow and they pivot, I think they give Penny the second crack because Boston Scott has never been a true RB1. I think he will get used and might end up as the best RB play tonight, but the expected touches will not be high. I think he will get some red zone work and a few carries here and there, but I would rank Swift and Penny over Scott. I would probably say from a macro lineup construction standpoint that you should try to get one of these RBs in your lineup somehow, but I am not going to definitively say which. I am personally leaning Swift, but he will be the highest owned which will make Penny and Scott leverage plays. As for the rest of the offense, I think that is a lot easier to project. Like I said, Jalen Hurts ($11,400) should be played in every lineup. I swung and missed on Josh Allen Monday night but that won’t deter me from making the same statements about Hurts. It was just a weird script in Week 1 and I doubt they get out to a 16-0 lead in the 1st quarter. Hurts has plenty of rushing upside and the weapons to support a high floor and even higher ceiling. No way he flops two games in a row. AJ Brown ($10,600) and Devonta Smith ($9,000) will likely be the lead targets with Smith getting the higher ownership here. The pricing discrepancy between the two is just a bit too high and there are so many lineups you can craft with Smith > Brown that make it so you don’t have to punt multiple spots and still get the studs in. For that reason I would definitely go to Brown. He is more of a factor in the red zone and almost matched Smith’s W1 output without a TD (Smith did have a TD). They both got 10 targets and I truly think that is somewhat sustainable. You really can’t go wrong with either WR, but I would lean Brown for the slight leverage boost and his upside is probably higher than Smith’s. Dallas Goedert ($5,800) I already touched on but once again he is criminally underpriced and won’t follow up a 1 target/0 catch game with another stinker. He will get a ton of ownership, but that is something I am willing to stomach. I think the last WR you really even need to talk about is Quez Watkins ($3,000) who has big play upside, but he doesn’t flash it much. He still played on 79% of the snaps Week 1 which is very encouraging and won’t garner much ownership at all. He could outpace the Eagles’ RB with just one catch so I like him a lot for GPPs. I will say though it is a very risky spot. He probably outscores all of these RBs, given the volume, like 10-20% of the time. Not that you can’t pair Quez with a Swift/Penny/Scott, but then you might as well be doing a 5/1 Eagles stack. Lastly, Olamide Zaccheaus ($200), Jack Stoll ($200) and Grant Calcaterra ($200) were the only other position players that got snaps last week (outside of Penny). Stoll is the only one that got over 10 snaps, but he is mostly a blocking option. If you want some super leverage, high bust potential play then I guess I could see going to Stoll or Zaccheaus, but I would 100% look to try to get Penny first over any of these guys.
Vikings
The Vikings are 6.5 point underdogs and have a 21.5 point implied team total for tonight’s game. This offense is 10x easier to project with very little uncertainty across the board. As we are all aware, Kirk Cousins ($9,200) is truly bad on in prime time. With an abysmal record in those games as of late, that is something you can no longer say is a coincidence. That is a full blown trend. On top of that, they are on the road against a Philly defense that is truly elite and has a guy in Darius Slay that kind of has Justin Jefferson ($12,400) in his bag. This is not me saying “don’t play Jefferson and Kirk”. This is me saying there is a serious narrative/avenue for both to not be optimal. The last time these two teams played JJ was held to just 6/48 and Kirk put up an absolute stinker. The Eagles might have gotten better on defense and I know that they will show up for this game. I am fully on board with fading Kirk and I just might fade JJ as well for the ultimate leverage. I do think he will get his chances though. There is a significant concern with his price though. You would need him to really pop off to be optimal over one of Hurts, Brown, Kirk and Smith (or multiple of those guys would have to underwhelm). Just keep all of those things in mind. I can also say I probably won’t be the only one in the industry to take this stance either. It might not be as hot of a take as some might think. I think the next easiest thing to talk about is TJ Hockenson ($6,800) who like I said in the CPTN section is underpriced and fine to play. I think he has a strong floor and a decent ceiling if he can grab a TD. Here is where I feel I might be wrong. I am not chasing Jordan Addison’s ($6,400) big first game. I get he looks the part, but the numbers are not in his favor. He was the clear WR3 with just 56% of the snaps and tied with Osborn for targets. If Osborn catches the TD and not Addison, we would probably have their salaries flipped. The rookie only had 4/61/1 and if you take away the 39 yard TD he would have come in with just 3/22 in his first game. I do see his snap share and target % increasing as the season goes on, but given the ownership he might get I will probably look elsewhere. I don’t have ownership, but I might flip my stance if he is going to come in under owned compared to Osborn and Hock by a good bit. For the moment, I am fading him. I also touched on KJ Osborn ($5,000) above so I will be quick with this bit on him. I like him as leverage with most going down to Swift/kickers or up to Goedert. He has a ceiling and I think the CB matchup he will get favors him. One guy I keep flip flopping on is Alexander Mattison ($7,600). He was very inefficient Week 1 boasting a 3.1 YPC number and the only thing that saved him was a receiving TD. It was against a tough Bucs’ rush defense, but the Eagles will not give him any better looks. I will say that Stevenson last week was able to put up a great stat line without a TD against the Eagles. That is why I keep going back and forth. I also think the ownership won’t be too high. I am fine with him either way, but I will probably be with the field on him. I am not going to plant a flag here. All that I can really say is he is decent leverage and will get volume. It all comes down to if he can be efficient with that volume and Week 1 says he won’t be. I wouldn’t go to a CJ Ham ($400) or Ty Chandler ($1,200) who only saw 2 and 4 touches respectively and lower than 35% of the snaps. It is too risky with the amount of value we have tonight. They do make for massive leverage though. The last guy to really touch on, who I think could actually be fairly sneaky tonight, is Josh Oliver ($800) who played on close to 50% of the snaps, got 3 targets last week and is super cheap to allow you to get in just about whoever you want. I don’t mind him at all as punt leverage off of Penny or Scott. The only other guy that got offensive snaps was Johnny Mundt ($200) who is pretty much a blocking TE only. I wouldn’t even think to go there.
DST and K
Given Kirk’s woes on Monday night, I am perfectly fine going to the Eagles DST ($4,400) who has some elite talent. I have never been someone to play DST often, but tonight be a time I actually go there. They are always good for some sacks and an INT/fumble recovery to boost their floor. I can’t see the Vikings putting up big points either with inefficiencies across the board outside of JJ. I like them here a lot. I would not play the Vikings DST ($3,200). I see the Eagles winning big here. They do make for amazing leverage though if the general narrative is wrong. It is just tough to come into Philly and get a win on the road. As for kickers tonight they probably won’t be for me. I have a personal vendetta against Jake Elliott ($4,200) from last year (I basically lost my fantasy football league because of a blocked kick at the end of the half in Week 2 from him last year. I was up by 0.8 with him left and that kick being blocked took me from winning to losing and then the Eagles didn’t kick again the rest of the game). That aside, I would lean him over Greg Joseph ($3,800) given the higher implied team total. In games that have a higher implied total, you typically don’t see kickers be optimal. I will say I think the game is lower scoring, so there is an avenue for them to be useful. I could be wrong on that though. Kickers and defenses in general are a total crapshoot most nights.
My Narratives
Jalen Hurts > everyone
AJ Brown > Devonta Smith
KJ Osborn > Jordan Addison
I am leaning Swift > Scott/Penny, but whichever one you choose plant the flag on them
I would play a TE (whether it be Hockenson, Goedert or Oliver)
4/2 or 5/1 Philly stack
Eagles win big 31-13
