NFL - Week 18 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
DISCLAIMER: Daily Fantasy for Week 18 of the NFL season is usually extremely volatile with so many players sitting or being benched once teams get a comfortable lead. Only bet with money you are willing to lose. Ownership and point projection models are also very inaccurate so chalk plays I write up about might not even be chalk plays come lock.
Chalk QBs:
Dak Prescott ($8,000)
With the Cowboys still playing for something, it seems Dak is the QB everyone is flocking to play. He has been the QB1 in terms of DK points since his bye Week 7 and now faces a Washington defense that has allowed the 2nd most pass yards/game this season. DFS Hero has him as the highest owned QB at 11% owned which in theory doesn’t seem too high. My big concern is it is on the road and if they get a lead and can hold it, he could end up sitting portions of this game. At the price you are paying, you really can’t afford him to sit. I would opt for other QBs that might be in a win or go home spot even if none up at this price fit that mold.
Pivot: Jalen Hurts ($8,100)
Justin Fields ($7,200)
The Bears might be out of the playoffs, but if Fields wants to possibly stay in Chicago this is his last chance to do so. He has plenty of rushing upside and is playing really well right now with 24+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. I think a matchup against the current worst defense in football is what he might need to go out with a bang. GB is truly that awful right now and I have no doubt Fields can capitalize on it. I much prefer a guy playing for his job over anything so give me Fields this week.
Pivot: Jared Goff ($6,700)
Nick Mullens ($5,100)
A lot of the ownership is gravitating towards the expensive guys still playing for something, but Mullens is getting a decent amount with DFS Hero projecting them for around 6% ownership. I think the main play for most people this week is jam in as many high end plays as possible and then punt 2-3 spots with guys playing for teams either completely out of it and sitting their starters or already clinched a playoff spot and sitting their starters. I think it is more wise to follow that trajectory for your builds so I would be out on Mullens. I think his ownership is a product of JJ getting a ton of ownership which makes sense. I would rather just one-off JJ or mini stack the game over pairing it with Mullens.
Pivot: Bryce Young ($4,800)
Other Considerations:
Jordan Love ($6,600)
Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Baker Mayfield ($6,200)
Geno Smith ($6,100)
Chalk RBs:
Jordan Mason ($4,600)
This seems like an obvious with the 9ers sitting their core guys. He should see the entirety of the workload and against a Rams team that really can’t budge much in their playoff spot, I think Mason gets to face off against mostly backups as well. This seems like an easy lock for me and just allow it to get you onto more expensive guys. Starting RBs that are expected a big workload aren’t this cheap too often so take advantage.
Pivot: Tyjae Spears ($4,600)
Tony Pollard ($6,500)
With the Cowboys still playing for the 2nd seed in the NFC, I fully expect Pollard to get his normal workload unless it blows out. Games on the road have typically been a lot closer than when at home so everything should hold. He hasn’t been good lately at all, but the last time he did face Washington he put up 22 DK points on them. I am indifferent about Pollard this week. I think the talent is there, but they just seem to want to throw the ball a lot more this season with Dak and Lamb playing so well.
Pivot: James Conner ($6,100)
Zamir White ($6,000)
With the Raiders not playing for anything, White will assume the starting RB spot once again. He faces Denver who has allowed the 2nd most rush yards/game this season. Coming off of three straight 16+ DK point performances, you can safely expect him to get somewhere in the ballpark of that if not more. DFS Hero has him for 17% ownership while also being optimal in 17% of the their models. I like him a lot this week regardless of the ownership. This spot is almost perfect for him and the volume will certainly be there for him.
Pivot: Ezekiel Elliott ($5,900)
Other Considerations:
Rachaad White ($7,600)
Breece Hall ($7,300)
Saquon Barkley ($6,900)
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700)
Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Chuba Hubbard ($5,500)
Chalk WRs:
CeeDee Lamb ($9,300)
The optimal play this week in the eyes of the field will be to punt at RB, TE, DST and maybe one WR spot then load up on the best plays at QB and WR. Lamb falls into that roster construction nicely. With the Cowboys looking to solidify the 2nd seed in the NFC, Lamb should get his normal workload this week. He faces the Commanders who have allowed the 2nd most pass yards/game this season so the matchup is about as good as it can get. DFS Hero has him far and away the most owned WR at 28% this week, but he is only showing up as optimal 19% of the time. That does make me think about fading him a little bit, but the ceiling he has compared to the other spend ups is just too good to pass up in my opinion.
Pivot: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600)
Justin Jefferson ($8,500)
I think JJ might be my favorite play on the slate this week. The Vikings are in a must win spot this week against Detroit who has allowed the 7th most pass yards/game this season. These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago and he went for 6/141/1. I just can’t envision a way they don’t try to get their best player the ball when they have to win to stay alive even if they need help from other teams. With all the value available, I think you just lock him in and find ways to get cheap elsewhere.
Pivot: Davante Adams ($7,900)
Ronnie Bell ($3,200)
There are other guys much higher owned, but currently the super punt WR seems to be Bell for the 49ers. They are expected to sit all their starters and he should get plenty of action. He is projected for around 8% ownership and is optimal in at a similar level so nothing really stands out as a red flag. I think there should be plenty of opportunity for Bell to get his due. I just personally don’t like going to chalky punts especially Week 18 when there will be like 10 other WRs under $3,500 that will get a solid amount of volume.
Pivot: Tutu Atwell ($3,300)
Other Considerations:
AJ Brown ($8,600)
Mike Evans ($7,400)
DK Metcalf ($7,200)
DJ Moore ($7,000)
Calvin Ridley ($6,500)
Chris Godwin ($6,300)
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100)
Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Brandin Cooks ($5,200)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800)
Michael Wilson ($4,400)
Demario Douglas ($4,400)
Darius Slayton ($4,000)
Cedric Tillman ($3,900)
David Bell ($3,400)
Josh Reynolds ($3,300)
Ben Skowronek ($3,000)
Richie James ($3,000)
Justyn Ross ($3,000)
Chalk TEs:
Trey McBride ($6,000)
The role he plays currently on this team with Marquise Brown out is just too good to pass up. DFS Hero has him as the highest owned TE at around 13% ownership and is optimal in at a similar rate. I think his ownership is definitely a product of there not being too many spend TEs that will play. He has gotten 7+ targets in each of the last 7 games with multiple over 10 targets. He faces the Seahawks who are middle of the pack in terms of TE production allowed this season. I think he is a fine option if you opt to pay up at the position.
Pivot: Evan Engram ($5,400)
Gerald Everett ($3,900)
He has quietly had 8+ targets in each of the last 4 games. I didn’t even realize that until I started looking into him. That is quite impressive for a guy at this price. If he can just connect with Stick for a TD just once he could easily be the optimal TE at this volume. DFS Hero has him for around 10% ownership which is more than tolerable. Similar to McBride, I have no issue with him at all. He does have a tough matchup against the Chiefs who have allowed the 4th fewest TE DK points/game this season so keep that in mind.
Pivot: Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,500)
Noah Gray ($2,500)
With the Chiefs resting their starters, Gray will get every opportunity he can handle this week. He is the flat min which allows you to pay up almost everywhere else and will get a good amount of volume. DFS Hero only has him for around 10% ownership which seems quite low in my opinion. The also have him optimal 18% of the time as well which makes him a great leverage piece. I will personally be loading up on him to make it easier to afford both JJ and Lamb together.
Pivot: Davis Allen ($2,500)
Other Considerations:
Jake Ferguson ($4,900)
Dallas Goedert ($5,100)
DST
Bengals DST ($3,000)
Chargers DST ($2,800)
Raiders DST ($3,300)
Rams DST ($2,600)
