NFL - Week 17 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Brock Purdy ($7,000)
He might have sucked last week but that was against a far superior Ravens defense and to be quite fair half of the INTs weren’t even his fault. Now he faces a dreadful Washington defense that has allowed the 2nd most pass yards/game this season and most pass TDs by a good distance. He is easy to stack and the run back options are cheap enough to balance out the salary usage. In a must win game for the 49ers, I think he bounces back well in what should be a perfect matchup.
Pivot: Matthew Stafford ($6,600)
Jalen Hurts ($8,300)
Hurts can play poorly and still put up 20+ DK points with his rushing upside alone. The price is definitely warranted with this matchup against Arizona who has allowed the 5th most pass TDs/game this season as well as a top 10 number for QB rush yards allowed/game so there is an avenue for Hurts to have a ceiling spot. With the Eagles, 49ers and Lions all vying for that top seed and home field throughout the playoffs, they will certainly be looking to secure and easy win and it should be on the back of Hurts. Just like Purdy, the stacking options are easy and the run backs are even cheaper than that of Washington so it should allow you to balance roster construction well. If you can afford to get up to him I would try to.
Pivot: Lamar Jackson ($7,700)
Tyrod Taylor ($4,600)
If you want an extremely cheap stack that opens up everything else in your lineup then Taylor is the guy for you. DFS Hero has him at just over 8% ownership so the rest of the field tends to agree. His WR/TE stacking options are incredibly cheap and he has rushing upside of his own. The matchup isn’t anything special with the Rams defense allowing the 11th most pass yards/game this season. He has shown 20+ DK point upside this season already and have I mentioned he is dirt cheap? I am all for it to get all the studs you could want in your lineup.
Pivot: Bryce Young ($4,900)
Other Considerations:
Justin Fields ($7,300)
CJ Stroud ($7,100)
Gardner Minshew ($5,700)
Geno Smith ($5,900)
Chalk RBs:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300)
With both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco both expected to be out, CEH could get 100% of the backfield this week. He is questionable himself which is concerning, but it isn’t like in the past when given the opportunity he didn’t produce. He has pass catching upside and is pretty cheap. The matchup is also really solid against the Bengals who have allowed the 7th most rush yards/game this season. I am fine with him, but at this ownership there isn’t much wiggle room. DFS Hero has him as the highest owned RB at 27.37% which given the narrative that he is a bust, there is a chance he lets you down. Just keep that in mind.
Pivot: Zamir White ($5,100)
Christian McCaffrey ($9,600)
I feel I need to give CMC he is own writeup every week because I swear he is top 3 in ownership just about every time he touches the field. He is worth every penny in easy matchups which is what you have against Washington this week. They have allowed the 10th most rush yards/game this season and we all know what he can do in the passing game. This feels like a spot where if you can fit him in you just do it. He has a 40+ DK point ceiling and extremely solid floor as well. What more could you ask for?
Pivot: Kyren Williams ($8,300)
Javonte Williams ($5,600)
This price tag is far too cheap for a guy that faces one of the worst defenses in the league that has allowed the 7th most rush TDs this season. He put up 18 DK points against the Chargers just a few weeks ago. Why can’t he replicate that in a spot where they are going to the backup QB and might lean on him even more? He is cheap and fits into just about every build. I like him a lot this week for both cash and GPPs with the ownership just in the mid teens.
Pivot: Devin Singletary ($5,600)
Other Considerations:
Rachaad White ($7,600)
Jonathan Taylor ($7,300)
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200)
Derrick Henry ($6,900)
Austin Ekeler ($6,700)
Bijan Robinson ($6,600)
D’Andre Swift ($6,500)
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,000)
Gus Edwards ($5,900)
Antonio Gibson ($5,200)
Chalk WRs:
Rashee Rice ($6,900)
The field seems to have settled on Rice as the chalk WR this week coming in at just over 16% ownership per DFS Hero. I get it for the most part. He has seen 9+ targets in each of the last 5 weeks and now faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the 5th most pass yards/game this season. With Kelce showing his age, a lot of the WRs out hurt and the RB room also banged up, they might lean on Rice a ton here. The only issue I think I have is there are guys above and below him seeing far lower ownership that are also in great spots. To say Rice is going to be the one to stand out when he has only a 5 game sample size to go off of when these other guys have years worth of elite production to go off of is a bit of a stretch. I am still going to play him because I think the matchup and volume should be that strong for him. However, it is a bit risky so I see the angle to fading him in GPPs.
Pivot: Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000)
Chris Olave ($6,800)
He is also seeing big ownership at a similar price range to Rice with DFS Hero projecting him for just over 13% ownership. He has 19+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and faces TB who has allowed the leagues worst pass defense. It very well could shootout which makes for an interesting game stack. He isn’t too expensive for overall production he has been putting up lately. I think I like Olave more than Rice at a similar price range, but having both is also fine.
Pivot: DJ Moore ($6,600)
Tyreek Hill ($9,300)
Welp here is his time to shine with Waddle most likely out. He very well could get 15+ targets in this one all around the field and maybe even some rush attempts to spark things. This Baltimore defense is tough to break down and being that they are on the road, in a hostile environment, where the other team is in a must win spot and a QB vying for the MVP, this will be no easy task for the Dolphins (sorry if that was a run on sentence). Personally, I prefer spending up on CMC over Hill because they easily could just double team him every play and pull it off. They have the personnel to do so. CMC that isn’t the case. I still like him across the board on volume alone. I just think there are more avenues to possibly stopping him because Waddle isn’t there to take some attention away.
Pivot: AJ Brown ($8,600)
Other Considerations:
Cooper Kupp ($8,100)
Puka Nacua ($7,900)
Mike Evans ($7,800)
Deebo Samuel ($7,700)
JaMarr Chase ($7,600)
Devonta Smith ($7,300)
Calvin Ridley ($6,700)
Tee Higgins ($6,500)
Chris Godwin ($6,100)
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000)
Adam Thielen ($5,900)
Tyler Lockett ($5,700)
Terry McLaurin ($5,500)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,300)
George Pickens ($5,300)
Drake London ($5,000)
Diontae Johnson ($5,000)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800)
Rashid Shaheed ($4,600)
Curtis Samuel ($4,400)
Demario Douglas ($4,300)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,000)
Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($3,600)
DJ Chark ($3,600)
Michael Wilson ($3,500)
Darius Slayton ($3,400)
Braxton Berrios ($3,300)
Jalin Hyatt ($3,200)
Chalk TEs:
Travis Kelce ($7,000)
I think everyone is just sitting and waiting for Kelce to pull a Kelce and this would be the spot to do it. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd most TE DK points this season and the Chiefs are without almost all of their weapons except Rice. Mahomes is going to have to get the ball to someone. Why not his most reliable guy for the last 3 or so years at a very cheap price for his standards? I love him in this spot, but as the top owned TE I am a bit leery. There are other TEs that have a similar ceiling now and are playing much better. Not to mention they are also cheaper. I wish he was lower owned, but I guess I will be going with the field on this one this week.
Pivot: Trey McBride ($5,900)
George Kittle ($5,600)
He has quietly been killing this lately with 16+ DK points in 5 of the last 8 games with multiple over 20+ DK points. He faces a terrible Washington defense that allows a ton of pass yards. My only concern is they actually have a decent TE defense, allowing the 8th fewest TE DK points on the season. With other guys cheaper that are in better spots and don’t have 3+ other guys that can funnel production off of him, I think I am going to go against the grain and say he is a fade this week.
Pivot: Evan Engram ($5,700)
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,600)
I have been on this guy for weeks and he finally has his big game when I eventually go away from him. As odd as it sounds, I was about to type out clearly he is a Tannehill target, but his TD last week came from a Derrick Henry pass. Regardless, he faces the Texans who have allowed the 3rd most TE DK points this season and is consistently getting a good number of targets. He is cheap and easy to fit in. DFS Hero has him for around 12% ownership which is a touch high for my liking, but the model has him optimal 16% of the time which makes him good leverage. I am fine with him if you opt to pay down at TE. He is in a really good spot compared to some of the other guys down in this range.
Pivot: Gerald Everett ($3,500)
Other Considerations:
Isaiah Likely ($4,600)
Dalton Schultz ($4,500)
Tanner Hudson ($3,300)
DST
Buffalo DST ($3,900)
Rams DST ($3,500)
Chargers DST ($2,900)
Broncos DST ($2,900)
