NFL - Wild Card Weekend Matchup Preview
The NFL postseason is finally here with some thrilling matchups and storylines to follow in the Wild Card round. I am going to take a look at all 6 games based on the Classic 6 game slate for Draftkings.
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Texans vs. Browns (CLE -2.5, 44.5)
Texans
The Texans are 2.5 point underdogs at home with a 20.75 point implied team total.
CJ Stroud ($6,800): He is in an awkward spot pricing wise on this slate where there are a few guys cheaper that offer similar upside and don’t have such a hard matchup. He is fine for SD obviously, but on the main slate I would probably look elsewhere. This game doesn’t have the best implied total so I would maybe just look to the weapons from this team.
Devin Singletary ($5,700): This is actually a nice price for his usage. He is 4th in value for the RB position on the slate per DFS Hero’s model and the Browns do have a tendency to allow rush TDs at a heavier rate this season vs. the pass where they are 1st in fewest pass yards/game allowed. I think the Texans try to establish the run here and lean on Singletary.
Dameon Pierce ($4,500): More of a SD play if anything. The backfield volume has fallen off of a cliff with Singletary’s emergence. I wouldn’t play him given he didn’t get a single touch in their must win game against the Colts. That kind of tells the whole story you need to hear.
Nico Collins ($7,000): Atleast they didn’t disrespect him and price him down like they had been a majority of the season. He is an incredible talent and can put up massive numbers. He even projects very well. However, I just don’t think this is the spot to be targeting him when the Browns are legit that good against the pass. The Browns defense does play a lot worse on the road which is why I do have a little bit of interest. Being projected as the 3rd highest owned WR on the slate also makes that interest go right away so tread lightly with Nico this slate.
Noah Brown ($5,100): He is questionable for this game which should raise some eyebrows. If he sits then the other WRs get a bump. If he plays then I would probably fade and it takes everyone else down a notch as well. He is a bit pricey and the matchup is just not good. Definitely a SD only play if that.
Robert Woods ($3,600): Only in play on the main slate if Brown is out and doesn’t have an injury designation going into this game. He will get no ownership at all and does have a veteran prowess that should keep him on the field over the young guys like Metchie and Hutchinson. I actually like the price, but he likely won’t be needed and there is a guy at the same price (Demarcus Robinson) that grades out a whole lot better. More of a SD play for me.
John Metchie ($3,200): He isn’t necessary. Only in SD if Brown and/or Woods are out but when he can’t get more than 2 targets in a must win game on 70% of the snaps against the Colts, I doubt he is doing anything against this Browns defense and even if he does he will be less than 1% owned so it won’t matter.
Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000): Same as Metchie. He isn’t necessary. Only in SD if Brown and/or Woods are out but when he can’t get more than a few targets and 1 catch in a must win game on 70% of the snaps against the Colts, I doubt he is doing anything against this Browns defense and even if he does he will be less than 1% owned so it won’t matter.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400): The Browns allowed the fewest TE yards, targets and catches on the season. I don’t think this is the spot for him at all. Strong main slate fade and honestly a fade in SD as well.
Browns
The Jets are 2.5 point underdogs on the road with a 23.25 point implied team total.
Joe Flacco ($6,100): It is crazy since he has started he leads the NFL in pass yards and TDs in that span. Now he faces the Texans who allowed the 10th most pass yards in the league this season. His weapons are a bit banged up, but I think they are going to take on the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality and continue to let him sling it to whoever they line up at WR or TE. He is easy to stack, is criminally undervalued, 2nd in terms of QB value based on DFS Hero projections and is 8th in QB ownership. I love him this week.
Jerome Ford ($5,500): He is fairly priced which is nice, but with the Texans having a strong rush defense, I think he is a main slate fade. He won’t be highly owned, but this isn’t exactly a ceiling spot for him. I would look elsewhere.
Kareem Hunt ($4,700): He is questionable, but returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday so I think he plays. I still don’t like him, but he is decent leverage in SD. Just fade on the main slate because he won’t be necessary.
Amari Cooper ($6,800): He says he is going to play but having no practiced this week until Thursday has me a bit concerned given it is the first game on Saturday. That alone probably has me fading, but the ceiling is there, the matchup is there and the last time he played he got 15 targets and amassed one of if not the best WR games of the season with 11/265/2. Definitely play at your own risk because he could end up being a decoy to help them secure a win this weekend and just put up a dud performance due to the injury.
Elijah Moore ($4,000): He was active last week after clearing concussion protocol and didn’t see but 6 snaps which is weird, but they weren’t playing for anything and the Bengals got out to an early lead so they probably opted to just let him sit for this week. He is really cheap and if Cooper plays might end up being a solid value play. Even if Cooper plays, there is a chance he decoys which would open things up for Moore to be a primary target. He doesn’t really have a ceiling which is why I won’t be playing him, but I certainly think he is worth a look.
Cedric Tillman ($3,700): If I am not playing Moore then why would I play Tillman who probably won’t play more than 40% of the snaps if Moore and Cooper are active? Hard pass for me on the main slate and barely worth a shout in SD.
David Njoku ($5,700): Houston is like really bad at defending TEs. Njoku has been the TE1 over the last 4 reputable weeks (I am not counting W18). Flacco loves him. Is it crazy to say that he is the best TE play on the slate even with Kelce playing? He is a bit lower value-wise than Kelce and is coming in with lower projected ownership. I really like him in this spot if you can make it work.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins (KC -4, 44.5)
Chiefs
The Chiefs are 4 point favorites at home with a 23.25 point implied team total.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,100): He doesn’t have the best weapons on the slate or even in this game yet he is priced as the 4th most expensive QB in a bit of a dead zone. He is a hard pass for me, but it is Mahomes and he could carry this team to a win if he really wants to. He doesn’t project that well and is one of the worst leverage plays given ownership vs. optimal rates. He just doesn’t look like a good play. I guess a positive is the Dolphins do allow a good amount of pass TDs, ranking 8th in that category this season. If he catches lightning in a bottle then he for sure could get there, but there are better overall plays on this slate.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,400): He has had a great season, but this is not the matchup you want to play him in. The Dolphins were 1 of 7 teams to allow fewer than 100 rush yards/game this season. I guess the saving grace is with McKinnon likely out he should see some targets as well (he had 7 targets Week 17). That could keep him in the conversation for me and the DFS Hero projections really like him. He is their top value RB on the entire slate and the highest leveraged with a 24% ownership projection and 36% optimal rate. Maybe mid-analysis I changed my mind on him haha. Okay he is definitely in play. The numbers don’t lie.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,800): He won’t have any sort of role. It is the playoffs. They will give Pacheco every single snap if they have to if it means winning. He isn’t really even worth a look in SD either. Hard fade for me.
Rashee Rice ($6,600): He is definitely putting up a great rookie campaign. He took over as the WR1 midway through the season and hasn’t looked back. With double digit DK points in each of the last 6 games he has played and a strong target share, I think he should be very much in play this weekend. DFS Hero has him as one of the best WR values on the slate, but has a negative leverage score with 16% ownership and only optimal 11% of the time in their model. I wouldn’t go overboard on him, but as long as he can dodge the Jalen Ramsey matchup more often than not he should do just fine.
Justin Watson ($3,400): Definitely a boom or bust type of guy that gets a few targets downfield, but good luck predicting whether or not he will get enough targets and if he can convert on them. He feels like a much better SD play vs. main slate play. There are other guys in this price range I much prefer even if they are higher owned.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000): All this guy does is run go routes to open up the middle of the field for Rice and Kelce to do their thing. He definitely could bust a big play to be that cheapo that gets 2/88/1 and is optimal, but I would put maybe a 1% chance of that happening. He actually does play on about 70% of the snaps which is higher than Watson, but he barely does anything with those snaps. More of a SD play than main slate, but even then it feels like a bad play.
Mecole Hardman ($3,100): Definitely don’t play him, but he should get a few snaps. That is it for Hardman.
EDIT: Actually the more I think about it with weather being a major factor, he could get some short yardage plays drawn up for him and maybe an end around or two to spark things. No one is going to play him which might make him a decent leverage play.
Travis Kelce ($6,100): What a bum this guy has been to end the season. He hasn’t had double digit DK points since Week 14 and the target share has actually been dropping. I think the age is finally starting to show. With the Dolphins allowing the 7th most TE DK points on the season, I actually do think this could be the week he bounces back even though I have been betting on that happening since like Week 13. Mahomes and Andy Reid will likely lean on their reliable guy here and try to get him into favorable spots so he can make plays.
Noah Gray ($2,600): You don’t need to play him on the main slate, but for SD he actually could be interesting. Even with Kelce playing they were giving him some targets and it was telling last week when they sat all of their starters that he only saw 40% of the plays. I think he has a role in this game even if it is minimal which is more advantageous in SD.
Dolphins
The Dolphins 4 point underdogs on the road with a 19.25 point implied team total.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000): This definitely isn’t the easiest matchup with the Chiefs pass defense allowing the 4th fewest pass yards/game and tied for 3rd fewest pass TDs/game. However, he has the most explosive WR in the NFL that is certainly going to want to beat his former team in Tyreek Hill. Tua could have a poor day and if Tyreek went nuts in space that alone could get him there. Not to mention he also has Waddle and a great rushing attack. He hasn’t been great lately so for me I will pass. The numbers also don’t side with him either being one of the lowest valued QBs on the slate from a projection standpoint and is only optimal 1.5% of the time per DFS Hero’s model.
De’Von Achane ($6,800): He is questionable going into this one, but it looks like it is more of a pain tolerance thing compared to Mostert who is likely a true questionable. He is electric and can bust a huge play off at any given moment. That alone has me liking him for GPPs for sure. The big thing I don’t like is the price. There are some cheap RBs that look a lot better than him value wise and he is only popping optimal 6% of the time vs. his 12% ownership projection which is not good. I think he is a solid pivot at the top, but there are better plays overall. If Mostert were to play that would only make things worse for me.
Raheem Mostert ($6,700): I think you got to take a stand somewhere and for me that is hard fading Mostert. He hasn’t played in 3 weeks due to concerning injuries (knee/ankle) and the Chiefs allowed the 4th fewest rush TDs this season. I don’t think there is a lot of room for both him and Achane to split a backfield and have a ceiling performance unless you are the one to defy the odds and score twice. It’s a no for me with their prices so close.
Tyreek Hill ($8,700): I think playing Tyreek comes down to are you willing to fade Lamb who is in a 10x better matchup, game script, everything. As crazy as it sounds for pricing Hill is kind of in a dead zone with guys above and below that are projecting as a much better value and have similar ownership. I will never say fade Tyreek because he can easily make me eat my words, but tread lightly. This isn’t a good spot and he has the 2nd worst WR leverage score on the slate just below AJ Brown. This game is also projected to have some horrible weather
Jaylen Waddle ($6,500): He can definitely have a big game, but this season he really hasn’t performed at a high level. With injuries also plaguing him as of late, not projecting well for this game and the weather supposed to be sub optimal, I just don’t see it for him. Similar to Hill he is kind of in a dead zone salary-wise that makes it a lot smarter to play other guys around him.
Cedrick Wilson ($3,800): If anyone of Waddle or Hill were to miss this game, he is going to benefit the most. He has been seeing a decent amount of targets with 3-5 in each of the last 5 games. The yards and TDs haven’t been there which makes it hard to trust him on the main slate. He is more of a SD play regardless.
Braxton Berrios ($3,100): SD only play but worth mentioning. He will get some snaps regardless and is more of a gadget guy that could get some targets to catch the Chiefs off guard.
Durham Smythe ($3,000): Shockingly enough he isn’t just a SD play only. He has 3+ catches in each of the last 4 games with guys banged up and has been putting up a decent amount of yards to go with it. The Chiefs don’t have an elite TE defense so there isn’t much to worry about. They might opt to try to shut down Hill which will open up everything else for Miami which by default could mean Smythe gets a decent amount of targets again. I like him if you want completely punt the position and get a decent amount of ownership leverage.
Bills vs. Steelers (BUF -10, 36.5)
Bills
The Bills 9.5 point favorites at home with a 23 point implied team total.
Josh Allen ($8,000): He is the most expensive QB on the slate and for good reason. He has 20+ DK points in 6 of the last 7 games with a strong 30+ DK point ceiling to go with it. I think what sucks for him is the implied total of this game is the lowest on the slate and if they get the lead that is expected he could end up just handing the ball off a good bit and coast to a win. He likely won’t have Gabe Davis one of their best weapons which sucks, but others can pick up the slack. I won’t be playing him because I almost never play the most expensive QB, but if you want him by all means I won’t talk you off of it.
James Cook ($6,600): The game script will likely favor him greatly being 9.5 point favorites at home. However, they don’t like to use him in the red zone and hasn’t had a double digit DK scoring game in any of the last 3 weeks. With his price being this elevated, I will be fading him for sure. Someone does have to score for Buffalo though and there is a strong chance he is one of those scorers. I just think there are better plays at a lower price and ownership down the board.
Leonard Fournette ($4,400): Now that he has taken over as the preferred red zone back from Murray, he is atleast getting some use which makes him a decent SD play. He is not necessary on the main slate though. He has playoff experience and has shouldered the load in the past come this time of the season. He could easily fall into the end zone but still get like 5 total yards and be an optimal play in SD. Just don’t look to him on the main slate.
Stefon Diggs ($7,400): Classic dead zone WR that going into the playoffs is in a rut and just not performing to his standards. He is sandwiched between Kupp and Nacua who are in a far better game script with a much higher implied game total. That being said, his ownership will be crazy low even with Gabe Davis expected to be out. He finally caught some steam last game in the pivotal Miami matchup with 7/87 which does make me think he is worth being played for leverage. His talent can’t be suppressed for too long and the Steelers are in the lower half of the league as a pass defense. Even if he doesn’t project well, I like him a lot this weekend. Someone for Buffalo has to score and I think there is a good chance it could be him.
Gabe Davis ($5,300): This is a complete formality because I don’t think he plays. However, if he does it will be more as a decoy so don’t try to roster him. There is too much risk.
Khalil Shakir ($3,400): He is criminally underpriced for the role he might play and the projections show it. He is DFS Hero’s 3rd highest value WR under $4,000 just behind Robinson and Jamo. With his ceiling, there is no reason to believe he can’t produce here with almost 100% of the snaps and plenty of targets. He put up 6/105 last week and was just a TD away from being one of the highest scoring WRs on the slate. He is only projected for 6% ownership with a 14% optimal rate which is picture perfect for what you want out of a punt play. I am all in on him on both main slate and SD if Gabe is out.
Trent Sherfield ($3,300): As much as I love Shakir, I can’t just discount what Trent did once Gabe went down. He almost immediately came in and scored a TD with a great body control catch. He got 4 targets and 3 catches on the day which isn’t far behind Shakir who definitely got there as more of a result of the 100+ yard bonus. Where Shakir is getting decent ownership, Sherfield will likely see less than 1% and might play the same number of snaps as Shakir. There definitely is some interest there as a direct pivot off of Shakir, but I wouldn’t play both together.
Dalton Kincaid ($4,600): He is finally getting back into form with back to back 12+ DK point performances after two straight with just 1 catch. Pittsburgh does have a pretty poor TE defense so there is some appeal. With 15 targets in the last two weeks, I think there is a strong chance they continue to try to get him the ball and even at this price can get there. The optimal % being less than 1% is what concerns me the most. I am indifferent on him but if you end up playing him he should do just fine.
Dawson Knox ($2,900): He has an illness going into this one, but I don’t think it will hold him out. He could definitely be a great pivot off of a lot of the priced up TE options, but with plenty others projecting a lot higher I probably wouldn’t go there on the main slate. SD by all means go for it. He scored last week and is definitely a red zone option for them. With no Gabe Davis, they could lean on the TE room quite a bit to help them move the ball this week.
Steelers
The Steelers 9.5 point underdogs on the road with a 13.5 point implied team total.
Mason Rudolph ($5,300): You would be crazy to play him on the full slate. SD sure give it a go for leverage but they have a 13.5 point implied team total which I think is the lowest of the weekend. Hard fade for me considering the Bills defense is 1 of 7 teams to hold opponents to under 200 pass yards/game.
Najee Harris ($5,400): Yes he is cheap and yes he is on a tear right now. No I won’t be playing him because in games they don’t hold a lead he averages under 10 DK points/game. The game script fits Warren a lot more and he is cheaper.
Jaylen Warren ($5,100): He tends to hold more value in the pass game 4+ catches in each of the last 5 games. This game script feels way more in his favor if they end up falling behind. I like him for leverage given DFS Hero only has him projected for 6% ownership. I still wouldn’t expect him to break the slate though.
George Pickens ($5,200): I get the price is cheap for a guy that has a 30+ DK point ceiling, but he followed up 23 and 39 DK point performances with a 0 target game against Baltimore. This defense has a similar vibe to the Ravens and doesn’t allow a lot of pass yards. He was never a high target guy either so he would need to make the most out of a low volume role to get there and for me I just don’t see it. You almost have to bank on a the big TD for him which is unsustainable.
Diontae Johnson ($5,000): I feel a bit better about him vs. Pickens just because the target share is there and he will get a lot more work just trying to sustain drives compared to Pickens who is the big play guy. For me it still isn’t the best play just on the implied team total alone. There are guys much cheaper with higher upsides. I like him for SD a good bit, but on the main slate it is a no for me dawg.
Allen Robinson ($3,000): Don’t do it
Pat Freiermuth ($3,600): He doesn’t project well and I don’t trust Rudolph to do much so I can’t really get down to playing him. With the Bills having allowed just 3 TE TDs all year, that is the nail in the coffin for me. There is virtually no upside in this matchup.
Cowboys vs. Packers (DAL -7.5, 50.5)
Cowboys
The Cowboys are 7.5 point favorites at home with a 29 point implied team total.
Dak Prescott ($7,600): The Packers defense is truly dreadful, but the stats don’t lie. They have a semi-competent pass defense having allowed the 8th fewest pass yards/game and that is likely due to Jaire Alexander being a shut down CB. He might have his sights set on CeeDee which is a bit concerning, but the positive note is they have allowed the 2nd fewest INTs as well. If they aren’t going to force turnovers then it definitely is a spot Prescott can cook in. I still love Dak here even with him being projected as the 3rd highest owned QB on the slate.
Tony Pollard ($6,100): I think he gets steamed up come lock and ends up as a top 2 owned RB. The Packers defense has allowed the 4th most rush yards/game this season and they finally started to ramp up Pollard’s touches over the last two weeks. If they can control the game, get a lead and sustain it, he could see upwards of 25+ touches and be a big factor. I swear every time Pollard was chalk this season though he completely fell flat on his face and let us down so I might make fading him my big lean this week. I seriously don’t have anything data wise to suggest he will fail though so I don’t have a problem with playing him.
Rico Dowdle ($4,600): He is definitely more of a SD play if anything but I would be lying if I said I didn’t have some interest. Again, the Packers are bad against the run and he has gotten plenty of opportunities this season to spell Pollard for long periods of time. If the game blows out or he gets lucky, he could easily be get a few red zone touches and make the most of it. Solid spot but probably not someone worth rostering on the main slate unless you have the bankroll to max enter a 150 max.
CeeDee Lamb ($9,000): Now there is one thing I am certain of and that is Lamb is pretty much matchup proof. He has averaged over 12 targets/game since their bye Week 7 and is averaging over 27 DK points/game as well. That is just insane. I can’t help but feel that the Cowboys choke every playoffs somehow and this could be the spot that they just throw Jaire on him all game and make Dak and the rest of the team win. That would level the playing field just a bit. I will still be playing him because he has been arguably the best WR in the league over the back half of the season. Pricing is irrelevant for me with Lamb.
Brandin Cooks ($4,900): He has 8 targets in each of the last two games and now should get the least amount of attention on the offensive side of the ball. With his big play ability and cheap price, he is one of my favorite plays of the weekend. He has the 4th highest leverage score on the slate per DFS Hero with just 8% projected ownership and is optimal 16% of the time. I just love the ceiling and opportunity he should have in this spot and is a cheap way to get a piece from this game without chasing the ownership.
Michael Gallup ($3,100): More of a SD play if anything. His target share has fallen off of a cliff and so has the snap share with the team opting for me 2 TE sets. Big fade for me.
Jake Ferguson ($4,700): DFS Hero has him as the best value TE on the slate and is also the 2nd highest leverage score TE on the slate with just a 15% ownership projection and 25% optimal rate. Give me all the Ferg I can handle. They allowed the 3rd most TE TDs on the season with 7 and he has 6+ targets in each of the last 6 games. The floor is strong and there might be an opportunity to chase TDs which puts him in a ceiling spot.
Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500): It is a no for me but he does have a cool name and will get like 40% of the snaps…
Packers
The Packers are 7.5 point underdogs on the road with a 21.5 point implied team total.
Jordan Love ($6,300): I totally get this is a horrible matchup for him and a lot of his weapons are banged up, but he has been great this season and will likely be in a spot where they will have to throw. I could see him easily getting there in garbage time and being more than viable. The only issue is good luck predicting which WR to stack him with. The Cowboys have allowed the 5th fewest pass yards/game this season so it isn’t looking good for him to have a ceiling game that is for sure.
Aaron Jones ($6,300): He has been banged up all year and they still continue to run him out there. I think AJ Dillon is going to be out again and honestly they would be dumb to not give him 100% of the snaps. He is still a great RB and this is a great spot for him to be a solid leverage piece. He has the 2nd highest leverage score on the slate currently being projected for 16% ownership and has a 25% optimal rate per DFS Hero’s model. I love him here and definitely think he can continue his strong run of play given the 17+ DK points in each of the last 3 games.
AJ Dillon ($4,400): Even if he does play it is a no for me. I don’t think he is good.
Jayden Reed ($5,700): One thing is for certain… he is the WR1 on this team and for Love. He has 17+ DK points in each of the last 4 games with a ceiling of 28 DK points. The target share is quite large with Watson out, but I think he gives it a go actually. That might take away from Reed’s expected upside a bit, but he will still be the guy. Watson will be more of the downfield guy going forward given Reed’s emergence. I like him, but the data doesn’t really side with him given his 5% optimal rate and 12% ownership projection. Maybe the numbers are telling us something and that we should look elsewhere.
Romeo Doubs ($5,400): I don’t like the price, the Q tag, the target share or the matchup. I can’t pay this price when Reed is $300 more and a much better option. Maybe more of a SD play, but I can’t do it with Watson projected to return.
Christian Watson ($4,500): This is an interesting one because he does have a massive ceiling when he plays. He scored 20 and 27 DK points in the last two games he played but that was W12/13 respectively. However, with that boom upside, there is a massive bust downside. I am actually fine with him in GPPs if you wanna go for the win. Just be prepared for let down when he inevitably plays just 40% of the snaps and gets a 2/27 stat line.
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,800): When all 4 of himself, Watson, Doubs and Reed play, Wicks is unfortunately the odd man out. I would only play him if one of Doubs or Watson sit. That is about it for me. I think he is fine in that even on the main slate, but I think the ceiling is capped against this tough Cowboys defense.
Tucker Kraft ($3,300): The DFS Hero model seems to like him with the ownership projection in the 7% range and is optimal in 18.5% of lineups. With the Cowboys coming into this having allowed the 5th fewest TE DK points/game and almost half of that coming to George Kittle Week 5, I can’t do it. Musgrave returning might bring his snap share down and there is limited upside. He is fine for SD, but not really someone I would want to play.
Luke Musgrave ($3,200): I do expect his role to increase as he gets healthy, but Kraft has been good enough to warrant getting his snaps as well. I think similar to Kraft he is more of a SD play if anything. The matchup isn’t good and he might not see more than 50% of the snaps.
Lions vs. Rams (DET -3, 51.5)
Lions
The Lions are 3.5 point favorites at home with a 27.5 point implied team total.
Jared Goff ($6,200): He is at home, facing the team that allowed the 10th most pass TDs/game this season (4th most among playoff teams) and can push the pace, is super cheap for the upside and will be easy to stack with cheap options galore. What more could you ask for? DFS Hero has him as the 2nd highest leverage QB on the slate with just a 13% ownership projection and 18% optimal rate. I love him this week and is my preferred QB option for most SE lineups.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500): I think the price is more than favorable and the ownership shouldn’t be too high. I just don’t know if I can squeeze him in. I prefer to go to the passing attack from this team with the Rams having allowed the 11th fewest rush yards/game this season. There are a few guys just below him that I think I like more and might get more volume. He is great for the SD, but not really someone I will look to much on the main slate.
David Montgomery ($6,200): If you need 12 DK points, Monty will get you 12 DK points. If you need 18+ DK points, Monty is still only getting you 12 DK points. He has a great floor but being more of a GPP player I just can’t play him. There isn’t much of a ceiling. When AJones is $100 more and has legit 25+ DK point upside you really can’t justify him. Fine for SD, not for me on the main slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000): He is a lock for me plain and simple. LaPorta probably isn’t playing, Jamo is going to play which will open things up for him over the middle and the Rams allow pass TDs. His price isn’t reflective of the legit 20 DK point floor and massive DK point ceiling. Not to mention this game has the highest implied total and is projected to be close. They will lean on him here 100%.
Josh Reynolds ($3,800): I expect him to get around 70% of the snaps with Jameson Williams returning and is coming off of a 7 target game which is nice. That was without Williams though. These two are seeing similar ownership but I think Jamo having the higher ceiling has me leaning towards him and the DFS Hero model validates that.
Jameson Williams ($3,500): DFS Hero has him as the 2nd highest leverage punt WR with an 8% leverage score when looking at ownership vs. optimal rate. Yes his floor is legit a 0. However, he has 8+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games he has played and was starting to get a decent number of targets. They are going to look for him on a few bombs for sure and the draft capital alone has to give him usage. I like the upside for GPPs for sure and is a pretty solid pairing with Goff + ARSB to bring the average salary of the stack down.
Brock Wright ($3,000): I am going to plant the flag on LaPorta being out which puts Wright in the driver seat to be the TE1. Will he do anything with the snaps is the real question. With James Mitchell also questionable, he could end up being the old TE of worth here. I don’t really think he is necessary on the main slate, but I like him a lot as a SD option. The Rams have allowed the 6th most TE DK points and 2nd most TE TDs on the season. I wish this was LaPorta because I would be all over him. I just don’t know if they will trust Wright to be a solid contributor in a must win game.
James Mitchell ($2,800): He was a limited participant at practice recently so I think he plays. He will likely be the backup TE and that isn’t worth playing on this main slate. Sure give it a go at little ownership in SD, but be prepared for a zero burger.
Rams
The Rams are 3.5 point underdogs on the road with a 24.5 point implied team total.
Matthew Stafford ($6,500): With the Lions allowing a massive amount of pass yards, I think Stafford slings it here and if he isn’t slinging it’s going to Kyren. He has some top tier WRs to pair him with and only if you go Amon Ra does is become an expensive stack. He has a strong floor and the game script should be for him to being throwing playing from behind. I think he will want to be the ones to knock his former team out of the playoffs for sure.
Kyren Williams ($7,300): The price is irrelevant. He has scored 28+ DK points at almost a higher rate than he has scored fewer than 20 DK points. That is absurd. However, the Lions have the 2nd best statistical rush defense only allowing 88.8 rush yards/game on the season. This could be the spot he busts and the passing attack has to get there. He is still a major part of the passing attack too which I why I could never right him off. It really is up to you if you want to play him or not because I see both sides.
Cooper Kupp ($7,500): It is crazy that we have to wonder if he is the WR1 or not. Some games he is more of a factor and some games Puka is more of a factor but I will side with the veteran for this one. He is seeing slight lower ownership and has just about the same ceiling. With the Lions allowing so many pass yards, I would be shocked if he wasn’t on the end of a good amount of passes and it all comes down to TDs for him. I honestly think you can flip a coin between the two if it is down to one vs. the other.
Puka Nacua ($7,200): I could probably say the same things for Puka that I said for Kupp except he is expected to be about 2-5% higher owned. It is a great matchup and he is proven to be a top target for Stafford. I can’t really see a pattern at all for when Puka does well and Kupp takes a backseat so it really is a coin flip for these two. I like them both and will likely run similar lineups with pivoting to each to cover my bases.
Demarcus Robinson ($3,600): He is the highest value WR under $4,000 and for good reason. I am shocked he is priced down like this with 5 straight games over 13 DK points prior to Week 18 (I don’t think it matters he put up 0 given he played on just 39% of the snaps). He will be the for sure WR3 going into this game and is far too cheap for the upside. I think my only concern is he projected for over 20% ownership which is not ideal for a punt option. There are other guys legit 1/10th the ownership that have a similar upside.
Tyler Higbee ($3,400): He is certainly a good TE and at this price warrants some consideration. He has been limited in practice all week due to injury, but I expect him to give it a go. He has a strong target share and is a decent red zone threat. I think he might be better suited on the Sunday only slate or in SD, but as long as he plays I think he is a fine option for the main slate.
Davis Allen ($2,700): Only if Higbee is out would he be worth a play, but he would be a great play in that event. He has filled in for Higbee nicely this season when he was out with a 15 DK point game Week 15 against Baltimore which is quite impressive. The Lions having a middle of the pack TE defense works in both his and Higbee’s favor, but just only consider Allen in the event Higbee is out.
Buccaneers vs. Eagles (PHI -3, 43.5)
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 3 point underdogs at home with a 20.25 point implied team total.
Baker Mayfield ($5,800): I doubt anyone is playing a hobbled Baker on the last game of the slate when he could possibly be out, but the matchup is glorious if you ask me. The Eagles pass defense has been dreadful, allowing the 2nd most pass yards/game this season. The game script for Baker should be to throw a good bit and he has the weapons. I actually really like him if you have the balls to go with him.
Rachaad White ($6,900): I wish he was a bit cheaper because if I am being honest I don’t think he is the 2nd best RB on the slate like his pricing suggests. However, he does rack up PPR point like no ones business. I don’t think I can stomach paying this price for him currently with the Eagles having allowed the 9th fewest rush yards/game this season. I want a guy with a big ceiling if I am playing this price. I don’t think White has that this week.
Mike Evans ($6,900): With the Eagles having a terrible secondary, I could see Evans really nuking. With Puka just above him, that will likely suck a good amount of ownership off of and DFS Hero tends to agree. He is only projected for 11% ownership, but they also don’t see him having the game I think he can with him being optimal just 1% of the time. Godwin is cheaper and has a much higher optimal rate so the numbers suggest to go to him over Evans. I am going to go against the grain and say the upside Evans has is up there with the best on the slate so I like him for leverage.
Chris Godwin ($6,200): He is right in line with Evans in terms of value, but has a much higher optimal rate. With 5 straight double digit DK point games, he does have a strong floor and the matchup lends itself to him also being in a big ceiling spot. With the price difference being minimal, I think I just like Evan’s ceiling more being he is the downfield threat. With the ownership being similar, I just like the ceiling plays vs. the floor plays.
Trey Palmer ($3,400): There are multiple other guys in this price range with larger expected volume shares and run on more snaps. For SD he makes a lot more sense, but even then I don’t envision them peppering him with many targets. He would need a lucky TD to really be viable.
Cade Otton ($3,100): The price is quite low which is nice, but he isn’t necessary on the main slate. The Eagles do allow a good amount of TE DK points which makes Otton an interesting SD option, but there are much better plays on the main slate at the position even if they are a bit more expensive.
Eagles
The Eagles are 3 point favorites on the road with a 23.25 point implied team total.
Jalen Hurts ($7,700): This has been a terrible finish to the season, but atleast they are still in the playoffs. Everyone on this offense continues to get hurt, but they all should be playing and despite everyone writing them off, I am more than willing to go right to them. Hurts himself has the rushing ceiling to break just about any slate. He has strong weapons that won’t get much ownership because the numbers don’t favor them. However, the matchup is amazing with the Bucs having allowed the 4th most pass yards/game this season. We know they kind of played us at the beginning of the year, but with their backs against the wall I think they show up this week.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000): Just like a lot of these guys on the team, he had an underwhelming end to the season. He is still talented and will get the volume. My only concern is the Bucs have had statistically the 5th best rush defense in the league this season. He hasn’t had much of a passing role lately so the floor is really low in this spot. I just won’t be getting there.
Kenneth Gainwell ($4,900): I don’t know how to feel about Gainwell. Lastly year they gave him a big time role in the playoffs and they very well could do it again. Swift has been banged up and that alone could give Gainwell a slightly larger role. He is a great RB in my opinion and has been getting more passing work compared to Swift. I think he makes a great SD option, but main slate it is very risky.
AJ Brown ($8,100): I am in the boat that he is healthy and will be at 100% for this game. The Bucs don’t have a way to stop him and he should be able to get back to being the 125+ yard guy that he was for the better part of the beginning of the season. DFS Hero’s data really doesn’t like him and think he is way too overpriced. However, people don’t seem to want to be focused on that and are with me because his ownership projection is around 16%. That seems steep and with my liking for ASRB being so high, I don’t know how much of AJ I will get to. He makes for good leverage with a lot of the priced up WRs seeing north of 20%, but everything points more favorably to me.
Devonta Smith ($6,700): I think his price is quite low for the upside. He practiced in full on Thursday so I expect him to be at 100% for this one. Literally no one is playing him with just a 6% ownership projection compared to the 15-20% the guys in his price range are getting. The matchup is great and he makes for fantastic leverage. The ceiling is there and it all comes down to can the attention go to Brown which will open things up for him to get targets. I like him a lot this week.
Julio Jones ($3,900): I don’t know if he will be the WR3 with Quez back, but all things point to him being that guy with him only getting 25% of the snaps last week and was the guy to take a seat after half compared to Quez and Olamide who played the entire game. He could be a great leverage guy, but the target share is not likely to be there with everyone healthy and Goedert is in a fantastic spot. More of a SD play for me, but worth a shout on the main slate if you think he is going to be the WR3 and are playing 150 lineups.
Quez Watkins ($3,500): If you want to take a swing on him in SD then I get it. I do think he gets snaps similar to Julio, but it could be a decoy role where he just runs go routes to open up the middle. Definitely a risky guy to go to, but I won’t be taking on that risk on the main slate. There are much better options.
Dallas Goedert ($4,800): I don’t know why no one wants to play him, but that is what the projections are saying. He is only projected for 6% ownership whereas the guys above him are seeing north of 20% ownership. He is in a great spot with the Bucs having allowed the 3rd most TE DK points/game this season with by far the most targets to the position. He has been banged up this season, but seems to be the only stud in this offense actually fully healthy. I think he has a strong floor and ceiling in this spot so I have no issue going to him as leverage and he is a borderline lock for me on the Monday SD.
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Texans vs. Browns - Browns 24, Texans 30
Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Chiefs 16, Dolphins 13
Bills vs. Steelers - Bills 23, Steelers 10
Cowboys vs. Packers - Cowboys 47, Packers 20
Lions vs. Rams - Lions 27, Rams 24 (OT)
Buccaneers vs. Eagles - Buccaneers 26, Eagles 27
