NFL - Browns vs. Jets Showdown Preview
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Browns vs. Jets (CLE -8.5, 34.5)
My favorite CPTNs will be highlighted PURPLE and BOLD
Browns
The Browns are 8.5 point favorites at home with a 21 point implied team total.
Joe Flacco ($10,600): Who would have thought in 2023 we would get a Joe Flacco vs. Trevor Siemian showdown in a garbage game environment. Old man Joe has looked fantastic over the last 3 weeks, boasting 20+ DK points in all of them and really taking his weapons along with him. The only issue is he faced some bottom tier defenses in that stretch and now gets arguably a top 5 defense at an inflated price. I am a bit weary just on those two factors alone, but with how much they are letting him sling it I don’t see a reason he can’t get there on volume alone. Plus it isn’t like the Jets defense has been too elite the last 2 weeks allowing Washington and Miami to put up 28+ points on them in each.
Jerome Ford ($8,400): He has a very consistent floor with the touches and targets he has been getting lately. He has cooled off the last two games but had put up 3 straight 10+ DK point performances before stalling and only has 7 and 9 DK points in the last few. If there is one spot you can beat the Jets it is on the ground. They have allowed the 9th most rush yards/game this season compared to their top 2 pass defense (the Browns are #1). DFS Hero has him for just 33% ownership which I think is fine so I have no issue going to him tonight in a plus matchup for him.
Kareem Hunt ($5,200): If I am going to like Ford I feel like I have to also like Hunt. They tend to have a 60/40 touch share favoring Ford, but Hunt is still getting close to 10 touches/game. It really comes down to who gets the TD variance which it could be either of these guys. The big concern is he has had an awful yards/carry number over the last 3 weeks averaging just 1.8 yards/carry. I think the price is a touch high as well given these factors which kind of makes it so he has to score a TD to be viable. He is only drawing 16% ownership which makes him a good leverage spot, but with the way he has been playing you still need a lot at this price.
Pierre Strong ($1,800): There are better plays in this range over a guy that might not even see a single touch. He would need a mid game injury to one of Hunt or Ford to be viable and that isn’t something you project for.
Amari Cooper ($11,200): What a performance from him last week topping the most yards in a game this season for the entire NFL at 265 on 15 targets. Houston literally could not stop him. He picked up an injury in that one and is questionable for this game so definitely keep an eye on that. I assume he is going to play and honestly the matchup sucks. He will get a fair amount of Sauce Gardner and it isn’t like DJ Reed has been too bad this season either. At this price it might be tough to fit him in, but with DFS Hero only projecting him for 26% ownership I think you have to take some swings on him having another big game. You don’t see a guy put up 50 DK points too often and then the following week go way under owned.
Elijah Moore ($6,600): I am certainly a fan of his talent, but it doesn’t really translate to fantasy production well. Him and Flacco just haven’t been in sync lately with the two only converting on 50% of his targets the last 5 weeks. He doesn’t have the strongest yards/catch number either playing as the primary slot WR. The price tag is quite high for a guy that has only produced more than 7 DK points once in the last 5 weeks. Also considering he is coming in at 30% ownership, I think that is a spot I might fade and hope the stats just continue in the same direction.
Cedric Tillman ($3,000): He is likely to be the chalk punt in this one with pretty solid numbers given the price tag. DFS Hero has him for close to 40% ownership which I think is justifiable. He has averaged 5 targets/game over the last 5 weeks which you won’t typically get for someone at this price. He is definitely trending in the right direction and just needs a TD to vault him into being optimal. I am fine with whatever direction you go on him because he does make things work salary-wise, but at 40% ownership it is great leverage to fade him and hope he doesn’t get there.
David Bell ($1,600): He is playing on about 25% of the snaps right now which isn’t terrible for a guy at this price. The issue is the target share is almost non existent. He has a stronger chance at giving you a 0 than even getting a single catch. For that reason, I am out. He is coming in with almost no ownership and 2 weeks ago he managed 1/41/1 so there is a chance. Definitely a deep field GPP play only.
Marquise Goodwin ($600): He is questionable for this one so keep an eye on that. He is a down field threat that might be more playable if like Cooper is out. I doubt he gets any ownership regardless but he has some big play upside. Just keep that in mind. He shouldn’t see more than 15% of the plays unless Cooper were to sit.
David Njoku ($7,800): He is just on fire. If you aren’t playing Cooper or Cooper were to sit I think he is a lock. With the outside WRs in very tough matchup, they might pepper Njoku with even more targets than he was already getting. The Jets are bang average at TE defense so no issues there and is averaging 9 targets/game since Week 7. This price is just too low given those factors so I love him for this one regardless of the 62% ownership he is drawing currently.
Harrison Bryant ($1,400): He had that one fluke 5 target game about a month ago but since hasn’t been able to muster up more than 1. With a snap and target share trending down, I just don’t think it is necessary to play him.
Jordan Akins ($800): Atleast he is getting consistently 1-2 targets/game. I might be hesitantly more interested in him over Bryant but neither will get any ownership and all it takes is one at this price. I wouldn’t play him unless you were playing 50+ lineups.
Riley Patterson ($4,800): For a practice squad kicker getting called up I don’t really like it. However, they are projected to score a decent number of points and to win. They could easily stall in the red zone with how good the Jets defense can be. I like him but definitely won’t be rushing to play him in a large capacity.
Browns DST ($5,600): I hate playing pricey DSTs, but you might have to in this spot with DFS Hero just having them for 12% ownership. I feel like that is very low for an elite defense facing a garbage tier QB that could easily take a bunch of sacks and/or turn it over a ton. I don’t even hate them at CPTN if the ownership is going to be this low. They still have a ceiling for sure and it would open things up at UTIL a ton.
Jets
The Jets are 8.5 point underdogs on the road with a 13.5 point implied team total.
Trevor Siemian ($8,800): We can all agree this guy is unplayable against a top notch defense when he can only muster up 12 DK points and a 55% completion % against a putrid Washington defense right? I won’t be touching him at this price and the fact he is expecting north of 50% ownership is disgusting. Easy fade for me.
Breece Hall ($11,000): The man had 20/95/2 on the ground which is great for just about every RB standalone. Then he piled up 12…. yes 12 catches on 16 targets for another 96 yards through the air. If Siemian is going to dump it off to him like that or even close to it he is a lock. The Browns defense is a hell of a lot better so don’t expect that type of performance again, but the ceiling is there and with Cleveland having statistically the top ranked pass defense, they are going to have to lean on him to establish something to open up the passing attack.
Dalvin Cook ($2,000): He saw 6% of the snaps last week. At this price he really isn’t playable in my eyes. I would much rather go to the other RBs in this offense.
Israel Abanikanda ($2,200): I think the route the Jets are trying to take is play the younger guys to see what they have in them which is why Cook saw a drop off in snaps which Izzy is seeing a bump. He is now the direct Breece backup and honestly at this price I don’t hate him. He saw 9 touches last week for 43 yards. If he can manage to syphon some of the targets away from Breece he might have a shot at being optimal. He is questionable so if he is out then Cook does become somewhat interesting, but it is likely Breece just sees all the work in that event.
Garrett Wilson ($9,800): Last week if Breece wasn’t getting a dump off then Wilson was getting the target. The two combined for 31 targets (Wilson got 15 of his own) and put up some monster numbers. If the TD regression can come back Wilson’s way then I actually think he could be an optimal play tonight. I just don’t think I trust Siemian enough against a great pass defense to get the job done. Everything screams more dump offs to Breece and the Jets barely being able to move the ball. You can play Wilson, but I wouldn’t do it unless paired with Siemian or in a Jets onslaught narrative which on the road and only projected for 13 points is a real stretch.
Jason Brownlee ($2,800): He played on 82% of the offensive snaps which is elite for a guy at this price tag. He only managed 3 targets but turned it into 1 catch for a TD. I hate chasing cheap guys coming off of fluky TDs so he won’t be in many of my lineups. That being said, the numbers do point towards him maybe seeing an increase in targets as long as the snap share can hold.
Xavier Gipson ($3,200): He saw around 60% of the snaps but at times looks to get more of a target share over Brownlee which is why the price is a touch higher. When you have Cedric Tillman pulling nearly 35% ownership and these two guys are both under 10%, they do make for great leverage options. I much prefer Gipson because he gets a few more targets from time to time.
Allen Lazard ($2,400): What a fall from grace from his Packer days. A week ago he saw 90% of the snaps and 6 targets. This past week he got hurt and only saw 26%. He is projected to play today and if that is the case then I will be all over him at this price. He is projected for around 20% ownership so the field is seeing him returning to a decent role. The price is just far too cheap and maybe enough people will be scared away by the Q tag which will keep his ownership at bay. Yes Siemian sucks but you don’t need Lazard to do much at this price compared to say Wilson who needs the double digit targets and likely a TD.
Tyler Conklin ($5,000): This price does feel very high given the Browns have allowed the 2nd fewest TE DK points/game this season and he really hasn’t been much of a red zone threat this season. However, he does get targets averaging 7 targets/game over the last 5 weeks and it does result in a decent yards/catch number. He is the catch… the Browns do allow very few TE targets or catches, but they have allowed the 5th most TE TDs this season with 6. This definitely could be the week that Conklin can break through and get his first TD of the season. I hate the inflated price tag, but that should keep his ownership low which works for me. You also have to factor in that Ruckert the TE2 is out for this one so he might see almost all of the snaps.
Kenny Yeboah ($200): He saw 25% of the snaps last week and that should come up with Ruckert out. He only needs a single catch and I have seen crazier. Definitely a deep field GPP play only and you better be playing more than 100 lineups.
Zack Kuntz ($200): Here is the wild card play of the game I will be tossing a bit too much ownership too. He was electric in the preseason for them as their 7th round draft pick and at this point in the season where they can’t make the playoffs why not see what you have in him. He was called up to the 53 man roster on Wednesday and with Ruckert out I certainly see him getting a decent number of snaps. I am not kidding I could see him winning someone the $300,000 solo tonight if he can muster up a few catches. Even if he pulls a 0 it still opens some things up to get multiple studs. What more can you ask for.
Greg Zuerlein ($4,600): I really don’t like him a ton because I don’t know how much scoring the Jets are going to manage in this one. The Browns are actually still playing for something and will be eager to make this an easy win. I much prefer Patterson over Greg the Leg in this one.
Jets DST ($4,000): They do have a good unit but man have they been disappointing the last few weeks. With Flacco under center the Browns have looked much better and I think his vet savviness will keep them from turning it over much or taking too many sacks. I won’t be playing much Jets DST especially considering DFS Hero has them projected for 33% ownership. That is a gross spot to roster them at.
My Narrative:
Browns just grind out a win
Breece’s volume is just too high to fade
Njoku is a lock
Flacco > G. Wilson
Lazard > Gipson > Tillman > Brownlee
Punts are Lazard, Kuntz, Tillman and Izzy
Browns 4/2 or 3/3
Browns win a slog-fest 20-10
