NFL - Week 16 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Justin Field ($7,100)
DFS Hero Fields coming in projected as the highest owned QB on the slate at a little over 15% ownership and honestly I was expecting higher. This game should be a shootout against Arizona that has given up the 4th most pass TDs this season. On the flip side Chicago has given up the 3rd most so with both QBs having strong rushing upside facing defenses that allow a lot of passing upside as well, the stars could be aligning for them to dominate. Fields has been a bit inconsistent as of late, but the upside is still there and the matchup is finally suited for him to have a great day. You can easily stack him with Moore or Kmet and the run back options are affordable. I almost never try to play the highest owned QB, but this time I might actually do it. He definitely deserves it this week.
Pivot: Jared Goff ($6,900)
Nick Mullens ($5,300)
He is coming off of a week where he scored 22 DK points against Cincy and now faces Detroit who has been prone to giving up points as of late. He has his best weapons in Justin Jefferson back and rookie Addison seems to have a good rapport with him after the 2 TD game last week. He is super cheap and easy to fit into just about every lineup. To top it all off the game itself has the 2nd highest implied game total on the slate which bodes well for plenty of scoring. While I don’t expect him to be the highest scoring QB for this weekend, it is more about what he opens up. I have no problem going with the ownership the field is giving him. DFS Hero has him as the highest optimal QB at around 23% which really bodes well for his chances.
Pivot: Joe Flacco ($5,500)
Baker Mayfield ($6,000)
People love to chase a big game and that is what we have with Baker. He threw for 380 yards and 4 TDs last week against GB and now faces a Jaguars’ defense that has allowed the 4th most pass yards/game this season. Their own defense is bad enough that the pace should easily be met by the Jags which could lead to plenty of scoring. He is easy to stack with any of Godwin, Evans or even White who has plenty of pass catching upside and the run backs are plentiful. I love the script for TB and the flow of the game should lead to Baker having to throw a ton. DFS Hero has him as the only other QB seeing over 10% ownership which for me still feels a bit low for him. I was expecting him to be closer to 15% owned so I have no problem rolling with him this weekend.
Pivot: Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Other Considerations:
Jordan Love ($6,500)
Gardner Minshew ($5,900)
Geno Smith ($5,800)
Ryan Tannehill ($5,000)
Zach Wilson ($4,800)
Chalk RBs:
Ty Chandler ($5,600)
This one seems like a free square with Alexander Mattison projected to be out again. He put up a massive 28 DK points on 26 touches in a loss. He is going to get a ton of volume and is super cheap. DFS Hero has him as the highest owned RB by a decent distance at 23% ownership. If I am playing cash games I think he is a lock, but in GPPs I actually think there is some merit to fading him. First off he isn’t even good leverage given his optimal rate is also only 23%. Second of all he faces a top 10 rush defense in Detroit whose offense has more paths to putting up big points with a healthy QB. If the Vikings get down early they might get away from him just like they have done with Mattison time and time again. There are also some great pivot options right above and below him.
Pivot: Chuba Hubbard ($5,800)
Devin Singletary ($5,500)
It is a very similar story for Singletary compared to Chandler. RB injuries kind of gave him the backfield and he has definitely been playing well in the role. He put up 24 DK points last week on 30 touches and it should have been closer to 34 if it weren’t for a holding call negating a 40 yard game winning TD in OT. Again there is a catch just like there was for Chandler. He faces a tough run defense in Cleveland and the Texans should get Nico back to ease up the passing game. While that could open things up for Singletary in the trenches, I still think this is a tough matchup and there are guys in this range that have better matchups and might see similar volume. He is coming in at around 20% owned per DFS Hero and the guys around him outside of Chandler are seeing sub 10% ownership. Those guys offer a lot of leverage so maybe think twice before clicking Singletary and Chandler this week in GPPs.
Pivot: Jerome Ford ($5,400)
Rachaad White ($7,400)
Who would have guessed that in Week 16 of the NFL this season White would be the highest priced RB and still getting over 15% ownership projections? I surely wouldn’t have. The man is a PPR machine with a massive role on this offense. He faces Jacksonville in a game that could go various ways depending on the availability of TLaw. I think I would like White more if TLaw manages to play but even if he doesn’t he should see more attempts running the ball which he has been more productive with lately. Just like the guys above there are some question marks though. If Trevor doesn’t play like I said the rushing upside will be there, but it could take away from his true ceiling which is in the pass game. Also the Jags have had a decent rush defense this year. I still like him, but there are some paths for him to bust and this price tag isn’t easy to get to.
Pivot: Raheem Mostert ($7,300)
Other Considerations:
Jonathan Taylor ($7,200)
Derrick Henry ($6,800)
Tony Pollard ($6,700)
Breece Hall ($6,100)
James Conner ($5,900)
Antonio Gibson ($5,200)
Chalk WRs:
Justin Jefferson ($8,100)
JJ at this price tag feels like an insta-click especially considering his QB stack is super cheap and JJ isn’t even in the top 3 in WR pricing. I don’t care about the injuries this season or his QB you just play him at this price because it is the right play. In my opinion, he is the best WR in the league and is criminally underpriced for his ceiling. He got 10 targets last week and this game against Detroit should feature a lot of scoring. Sign me up!
Pivot: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200)
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100)
Following a disappointing week against Houston where he was only able to convert on 2 of his 9 targets, he gets a much better matchup against Seattle who has allowed the 10th most pass yards/game this season. He has a favorable price tag which is why people are getting onto him. DFS Hero has him at 16% projected ownership which I think is a touch high given the QB play is suspect. Tannehill should be starting which I don’t know if that is good or bad for him honestly. I think he should be fine, but I think the ownership is a bit high given the floor he has. Derrick Henry could always get 20+ touches and the team throw 20 times which really takes away from Hopkin’s upside.
Pivot: Chris Godwin ($6,200)
Calvin Ridley ($6,300)
He plays TB this week who has been bleeding production to WRs this season. They have allowed the 2nd most pass yards/game this season so no doubt Ridley will be on the end of some work this week. The QB play is what is concerning with Beathard possibly starting if TLaw is out. DFS Hero has him for around 11% ownership which is definitely manageable. My biggest concern is Zay Jones is likely to be out and in games that he has been out, Ridley has not produced well. Pair that with the possible back up QB and I think he is bad chalk. Maybe look to other Jags for production instead.
Pivot: Garrett Wilson ($5,800)
Other Considerations:
CeeDee Lamb ($9,200)
Mike Evans ($7,600)
DJ Moore ($6,900)
Amari Cooper ($6,400)
Jordan Addison ($6,000)
Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Romeo Doubs ($5,300)
Drake London ($5,100)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500)
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300)
Elijah Moore ($4,200)
Michael Wilson ($3,700)
Jonathan Mingo ($3,600)
Darnell Mooney ($3,300)
Chalk TEs:
Trey McBride ($5,700)
This feels like deja vu every week writing about this guy but man does he continue to produce. He got 11 targets last week and put up another 20+ DK point performance. Why they don’t have him at around $6,500 is crazy to me. They play Chicago who has a bottom 10 TE defense. DFS Hero has him for close to 20% ownership which I think is completely warranted. I have no problem eating the chalk on him due to the volume and upside he is getting right now.
Pivot: Sam LaPorta ($6,400)
Cole Kmet ($4,400)
DFS Hero has him as 2nd in TE ownership at around 12% which I think is a fine. My big concern is that the Cardinals have had an excellent TE defense this year ranking 4th best in TE DK points/game. He has been incredibly consistent lately with double digit DK points in 3 straight games. I just think the matchup and ownership will have me shy away from him. This team is also very run-centric which takes away from his upside. I just don’t see it for him this week and makes him a prime bust candidate.
Pivot: Dalton Schultz ($4,600)
David Njoku ($5,300)
He just continues to get big ownership with the form he is in. Flacco loves this guy and has made him a big feature in the offense. He has 29 and 27 DK points in the last two games which probably leads the way for TEs over the span. He has always been a volatile player so I don’t know if I trust him quite yet to be a consistent 20+ or even 15+ every week, but the role he is in might force him to get there. DFS Hero has him basically right with Kmet for ownership and Njoku has more upside I am fine with it. I still like McBride a touch more, but the Texans have been the 3rd worst TE defense this season allowing almost 15 DK points/game to the position. I have never gotten him right, but I think he is a good play regardless this week.
Pivot: Evan Engram ($5,400)
Other Considerations:
TJ Hockenson ($5,800)
Jake Ferguson ($4,900)
Tucker Kraft ($3,700)
Cade Otton ($3,300)
Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)
DST
Browns DST ($3,400)
Jets DST ($3,100)
Buccaneers DST ($2,600)
Panthers DST ($2,400)
