NFL - Rams vs. Saints Showdown Preview
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Rams vs. Saints (LAR -4, 46.5)
My favorite CPTNs will be highlighted PURPLE and BOLD
Rams
The Rams are 4 point favorites at home with a 25 point implied team total.
Matthew Stafford ($10,000): The Saints defense from a passing yards allowed perspective has been elite this season, allowing the 5th fewest on the season. However, it wasn’t until recently that Marcus Lattimore went down which changes a lot of things for them. Here is the thing though. Just look at their schedule and tell me a decent QB they have faced all year outside of Goff and TLaw a few weeks ago. The numbers are heavily skewed in their favor so I hope that effects ownership. Stafford is in a great spot, has the weapons and is almost a guarantee for close to 20 DK points. I don’t really care for him at CPTN because the upside of other players in this game is higher, but given the price and production he is almost a lock at UTIL for me.
Kyren Williams ($11,200): While the Saints don’t allow a lot of rush TDs, they definitely allow the yards ranking 9th in rush yards allowed/game. Kyren is getting almost 100% of the RB volume on this team and putting up massive DK scores with 17 DK points or higher in all but 2 games this season. I think the only thing holding him back is the price. If you want some studs like either of the Rams WRs, Kamara or QBs it might be tough to fit with him in your lineup as well. The value plays are pretty middling so from an optimal perspective he might need a massive score to get there, but it isn’t like he hasn’t been putting up big scores all year. I am fine with him, but to be honest for leverage I am fine fading him and hoping for the best (even if it might come back to bite me).
Royce Freeman ($2,600): I don’t really think backup RBs on this slate are the move and Royce barely gets any volume. I would be more interested if he was under $2,000, but at this price it wouldn’t make sense to play him.
Cooper Kupp ($11,000): He is feeling himself right now with back to back 25+ DK point performances after a stretch of slow games. He has a great matchup out of the slot against Alontae Taylor who has allowed the 4th most FP/RR this season at 0.4. Then when he plays on the outside he won’t have Lattimore to deal with. He checks every box and really the price is the only thing going against him. From a game theory perspective most lineups will come down to Kupp vs. Kyren or paying down for Puka because and who scores more. There is basically a 0% chance atleast one of the three of them isn’t in the optimal in some capacity. It will be tough to get both Kyren and Kupp and not punt at fewer than 2 spots. Their ownership is within 5% of each other so this is basically a coin flip. My lean is Kyren gets more ownership given the defensive stats so give me Kupp.
Puka Nacua ($9,600): The most logical move most people will make to get salary is drop from Kyren or Kupp to Puka who has a similar ceiling. I haven’t really started constructing rosters, but I think this alone will inflate his ownership a tad bit. The target share is still there with 7+ in every game this season. With Kupp having the big games lately he has taken a small dip, but on any given night that could change. He would have been the one to get the majority of the Lattimore coverage so he should be feeling good, but Paulson Adebo has still been a great CB this year so the matchup isn’t great. I still prefer Kupp more due to the matchup, but if you do need savings it isn’t like Puka is much of a downgrade.
Tutu Atwell ($2,800): This is the first bit of value we will get to since he has no injury designation for this game. Prior to the injury he was playing on about 40% of the snaps, but Demarcus Robinson has kind of taken over as the WR3 on this team. The thing is Robinson is now almost $3,000 more expensive due to the TDs in 3 straight games. I am a law of averages guy and I doubt Robinson does it a 4th time in a row. Tutu has the explosiveness and showed that early in the year when Kupp was out. I actually like him a good bit at this price who has upside despite the low volume numbers. He is high risk, high reward that can be fit into just about every lineup.
Demarcus Robinson ($5,400): For the love of all things holy I hope the slappies that play this guy get what is coming to them. Chasing a mid WR3 that has scored 3 games in a row has no business scoring for a 4th in a row. Only Doug Baldwin can pull off that stunt. Outside of the one outlier 10 target game against Baltimore he was seeing more like 3-5 targets. Even without the TDs at this price I am not a huge fan when at best he is the 4th option on this offense and most of the time the 5th behind the TE spot. Robinson should be the biggest trap play on the slate so don’t fall for it.
Ben Skowronek ($400): This is more of a formality because shouldn’t see more than 3-5 snaps if that. With everyone in the lineup there is a strong chance he doesn’t even play so don’t go here.
Tyler Higbee ($5,800): Now I would much rather go to Higbee than Robinson. He has about the same target share, runs a similar number of routes and DFS Hero has him for similar ownership (both are seeing around 12-15%). Atleast you aren’t chasing TD luck for him which in my opinion should make him the lower owned guy. The Saints have allowed the 2nd most TE TDs this season (tied with their own TE defense actually). The matchup is good and the ability to get him as a leverage guy is perfect.
Davis Allen ($2,200): He is set to play on around 30-40% of the snaps and might see a couple of targets at best. DFS Hero has him for only 3% ownership which given the snaps and his connection with Stafford (he saw 5 targets with Higbee out), I could see him actually doing something here. Again, the Saints TE defense is not good and he is cheap enough that he only needs a catch or two to be optimal. I probably wouldn’t play him with Higbee, but on his own I think he is a fine punt play.
Lucas Havrisik ($4,800): He has a significantly high floor which is nice, but the price is tough to get to. He would need that mid range of Higbee, Robinson and Johnson to all kind of fail and with the way each TE defense funnels to TEs I tend to think those guys have a higher upside. I think he is a very safe play given their offense should be able to move the ball fine and they are favored. Solid play but you do have to factor in DFS Hero has him for close to 10% more ownership. I am fine with it, but that is risky from a game theory perspective.
Rams DST ($3,800): Here’s the thing… I think Derek Carr sucks so sign me up for some Rams DST. They still have Aaron Donald who is a force regardless and the defense at home averages close to 1 INT/game. I do think the Saints will be able to muster up some points, but with how banged up their offense has been lately if they start out slow it could be a long day for them. The price is also favorable so I have a lot of interesting this unit.
Saints
The Saints are 4 point underdogs on the road with a 21 point implied team total.
Derek Carr ($9,000): He is coming off of a very solid game, tossing 3 TDs but that was against a dreadful Giants defense. He is incredibly cheap for a starting QB and even though the ceiling isn’t quite there, I think he is a very safe option but keeping close to the options above him might be tough unless this is a real barn burner of a game. If it is a slow game likely Carr isn’t scoring and the other options are going to get their with catches/touches. With him coming in as the 2nd highest owned option on the slate (per DFS Hero’s ownership projections) just behind Kyren, I actually think fading him might be the best option. I don’t like him, but I don’t hate him by any means.
Alvin Kamara ($10,800): His production has dipped a bit over the last couple of weeks but I think that is more a product of those games being blowouts and them not needing to use him much. He is still getting the volume with 21 touches last week. With the receiving upside and the matchup being pretty much average for him, I think he should be able to produce. He is due for a big game here soon too. DFS Hero has him within 2-3% ownership wise from Kupp and Puka so it really is another coin flip for them. However, he is projected lower than all of the Rams big names so optimizers likely won’t get to him much which artificially should have him lower owned than those guys. Just keep that in mind.
Jamaal Williams ($4,200): He is still seeing around 40% of the snaps which is quite high. He is more game script dependent due to having little to no pass catching upside. With them being on the road and favored to lose, I just don’t know if the volume will be there. He isn’t projected for too much ownership, but is still around 10%. I am fine fading that and just living with the outcome. I just don’t see the Saints being up like they have the last few games and a trailing script isn’t for him.
Chris Olave ($8,600): When he is $400 cheaper than Carr and easily has a higher ceiling I much prefer him at lower ownership over the QB. He has a strong floor with 9+ DK points in all but 1 game this season. The Rams have given up the 12 most pass yards/game this season so there is an avenue for Olave to produce well. No MT and Shaheed being banged up could lead to Olave just getting peppered with targets. I like him a good bit in this spot given his ownership is the lowest of the priced up options making him a solid leverage play as well.
Rashid Shaheed ($7,000): He has a massive upside no doubt, but this price tag given his recent production is kind of whack. He has scored less than 7 DK points in each of the last 4 games so couple that with the price tag he should come in at a very low ownership. If you are someone playing the game of DFS then he for sure should be on your radar. When he hits it is because of a big play TD and again law of averages says he is due. I believe he is talented and it really comes down to if Carr can hit him deep. I am a big fan of him tonight as leverage, but understand the risk is extremely high. I am extremely interested in him as a CPTN for this reason because when he hits it is for a big game.
Lynn Bowden Jr. ($3,000): He has quietly been playing a ton since MT went out for the year (shocker). Since Week 12 he has averaged 72% of the snaps even with Olave and Shaheed active in some capacity during that stretch. He has 9 targets in the last 2 weeks which makes me think he is building a rapport with Carr. I wish he was a bit cheaper, but at this price he still only needs a couple catches and the icing on the cake would be his 1st TD of the season. The only hold up is DFS Hero has him for 22% ownership and only optimal 7% of the time. That is terrible leverage so he makes for a good fade if the field is liking him. Honestly after Olave, the Saints WRs all have a very volatile role so there is a lot of risk.
AT Perry ($3,200): A very similar story for Perry compared to Bowden but Perry is more of a downfield, big play threat which makes him even more volatile. He models as more of a “Shaheed” type so I could see him getting fewer snaps with him back. Bowden is more of the “Michael Thomas” type of possession receiver which is more favorable in PPR formats. It isn’t like Perry is a bad player. He has scored 4+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games which at this price isn’t something you can say often. Here is why I like Perry more… He is projected for just 5% ownership and is projected for more DK points by DFS Hero at virtually the same price. I will play the game and go Perry more often than not even if my gut likes Bowden more.
Keith Kirkwood ($2,400): It doesn’t make much sense to play him when Perry and Bowden are just a few hundred dollars more and play on double the snaps and see more targets. Just fade him and accept it if somehow Keith has his game.
Taysom Hill ($6,600): I really think it is weird he only saw 19% of the snaps last week even with him coming back from injury. If he is healthy I think he should get back to the 30-40% snap share and those snaps will be highly productive. I am always a fan of him at this price and maybe last week’s light workload will run some of the field off of him. He is only projected for 20% ownership which is fine considering the ceiling is high. He is volatile, but I am willing to take the risk and think you should too.
Foster Moreau ($2,000): He is only projected for 4% ownership which is crazy considering his snap share has grown a ton over the last few weeks and was ta 70% last week. He saw 5 targets as well, but struggled to convert it into much of anything. I think he can be a great leverage play given he is on the field and they want to throw him the ball at a very cheap price tag. This team really seems to like him so I will too.
Juwan Johnson ($4,000): He is double the price of Moreau, seeing only 40% of the snaps compared to Moreau’s 70% and seeing 4x the ownership. I don’t really follow it, but it has to be due to the fact that he is coming off of a TD last week and is kind of the DFS darling dating back to the offseason where he was projected to be the starting Saints TE. I am fine with him but much prefer Moreau. He still gets a decent target share and is a decent safety valve for Carr to throw to.
Jimmy Graham ($1,600): This is 100% the Demarcus Robinson of this team. He has 3 straight games with a TD. I would bet my life savings he doesn’t extend that to 4. Please don’t chase this old man haha.
Blake Grupe ($4,600): He actually averages more DK points on the road vs. at home so there is that. This team is still projected for a decent amount of points so he should have a decent floor. For Grupe, it is more you better hope Carr sucking doesn’t either keep this team from moving the ball or he plays well and they score TDs which keeps Grupe from scoring FGs over XPs. I prefer other plays, but he is fine at similar ownership to Havrisik.
Saints DST ($3,400): I don’t understand why they are drawing close to 30% ownership. At that rate they are an easy fade for me. No way they can stop all of Stafford, Kupp, Puka and Kyren and keep this Rams team that is in a must win spot from scoring well. Stafford has been great at limiting turnovers since the beginning of the year where he was more turnover prone. They are also on the road which isn’t favorable. Against teams with decent offenses they don’t score well which even further makes me dislike them tonight. I just don’t see it with them in this spot.
My Narrative:
The Rams control the game well with their weapons
The Saints are able to move the ball, but Carr struggles to get them in the endzone
Kupp > Kyren and Puka
Olave > Carr
Kamara is fine but will be tough to fit in
Punt plays are Tutu, Moreau and Perry
4/2 both ways and 3/3
Rams win 27-24
