NFL - Christmas Day Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
DISCLAIMER: I am writing this article at 5:30 PM EST on Friday 12/22 ahead of the Holiday Weekend. Ownership and Point projections are subject to change so be sure to join the Discord for any updates. Good luck and Merry Christmas!
Chalk QBs:
Jalen Hurts ($7,500)
This is the only QB spot on the slate that I think people are comfortable saying is an easy one which is why he is getting close to 30% ownership. While some of the other priced up QBs are playing great and deserve the price tag, the matchup is significantly more difficult and has more meaning to it. Hurts is always live for a rush TD or 2 and has the passing upside to vault him up. Against the Giants who have allowed the 14th most pass yards/game and 4th most rush yards/game, it aligns with his game that he have a big stat line in this one. He might have expensive stacking options, but the run backs are extremely cheap and still have upside if the targets are there. I like him regardless.
Pivot: Patrick Mahomes ($7,500)
Brock Purdy ($6,700)
He has been red hot over the last two months with just 1 game under 24 DK points over the span of 7 games. He has pretty much every tool at his disposal with the best RB in the NFL, one of the most versatile WRs in the game, an insanely talented outside WR and a physical beast of a TE along with the best OL in football. The only reason he isn’t projected to be the highest owned is he faces a Ravens defense that has been a force this season at making great QBs look average. This will be the true test for Purdy to see if he is MVP material with him being the MVP favorite as things sit. Personally, I don’t love the ownership and every time I have played a QB facing the Ravens it has backfired, but being a couple hundred dollars cheaper than the other QBs makes one or two of the position roster spots easier to come up on. DFS Hero has him at around 25% ownership which again makes sense, but that is a tough click when he faces one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Pivot: Lamar Jackson ($7,400)
Other Considerations:
Tommy DeVito ($5,000)
Chalk RBs:
Christian McCaffrey ($9,500)
Pretty much every week regardless of the price he is virtually guarenteed to be one of the highest owned RBs. He does it in every facet of the game and even at $9,500 he should have no problem paying it off. The only real concern is the Ravens have allowed the fewest rush TDs this season and are bottom 10 in rush yards/game allowed as well. He might have to showcase the ceiling in the passing game. The script should involve plenty of Purdy dump offs anyways so I am fine getting there regardless. There isn’t anyone other than maybe Kyren Williams at this point that can take 20-25 touches and turn that into massive points no matter what. If you can fit him in, and to be honest that is a big ask, you do it because he should give you the highest RB score and on small slate raw points are important.
Pivot: Saquon Barkley ($6,800)
D’Andre Swift ($6,000)
This one has to be a product of the low price because he hasn’t looked that great as of late. He hasn’t been able to top 10 DK points in any of the last 4 games even with a decent amount of volume. This is a great get right spot though against the leagues 4th worst rush defense statistically. Personally the ownership is a bit off putting and other guys in the same range will be much lower owned with a similar workload and don’t have a QB that seems to vulture a TD from him every game. If you get to it I understand, but he isn’t someone I will be with or over the field on.
Pivot: Isiah Pacheco ($6,400)
Other Considerations:
Josh Jacobs ($6,300)
Gus Edwards ($5,700)
Zamir White ($5,000)** If Josh Jacobs is OUT
Justice Hill ($4,700)
Chalk WRs:
Rashee Rice ($6,500)
With the QB and RB price tags being inflated, finding mid range or cheap WRs to fill out the rest of the lineup will be crucial. Rice somewhat provides that here at a decent price tag for the upside. He seems to have taken over as Mahomes’ #1 TARGET as of late and yes I mean target over Kelce. He has averaged 9.5 targets/game over the last 4 games and has averaged 20 DK points in that span. On paper the Raiders defense who Rice faces has been solid this year, but man have they faced some garbage offenses to deflate the numbers. Just a few weeks ago, Rice played them and put up 8/107/1. No reason he can’t replicate that here in a must win game for the Chiefs.
Pivot: Zay Flowers ($5,500)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,900)
DFS Hero is projecting him for close to 20% ownership, making him the chalk punt WR people are going to be going to. For a guy that gets like 4-5 catches but almost no yards and TDs it is a bit shocking. Yes his floor his strong, playing on close to 90% of the plays every week and faces a garbage Eagles pass defense. However, why not just go to Darius Slayton who is cheaper, seeing literally half the ownership, got 8 targets last week in a similar game script type game and has more scoring upside? With how chalk has been hitting it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be the better play, but I much prefer others on his own team.
Pivot: Darius Slayton ($3,500)
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,700)
With Deebo really showcasing his upside lately, it has taken away from Aiyuk which is probably why his price is so low. I think it is kind of BS because outside of last week, Aiyuk has put up 13+ DK points in every game since Week 7 with multiple over 20 DK points. This is by no means an easy matchup for him with the Ravens having an elite secondary that has allowed the 6th fewest pass yards/game this season. DFS Hero has him for close to 30% ownership as well, but with Deebo at only 11% I am more interested in going to him. The target share can be volatile at times and atleast Deebo has some rushing upside to go with the receiving work. Nothing against Aiyuk because I do think he is a great talent. I just don’t think this is the matchup he should be getting this type of ownership in even for a 3 game slate.
Pivot: Deebo Samuel ($7,700)
Other Considerations:
AJ Brown ($8,500)
Davante Adams ($7,300)
Devonta Smith ($7,100)
Zay Flowers ($5,500)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,200)
Justin Watson ($3,500)
Jalin Hyatt ($3,200)
Chalk TEs:
Travis Kelce ($7,500)
I think a reason he is projected to be the highest owned TE is because everyone expects his to right the ship at some point and on a 3 game slate if you aren’t on the end of it you will no even cash. He has been incredibly poor for his standards with no games over 20 DK points since Week 7. With Skyy Moore going down to injury (even if it isn’t a big deal), that could open up a couple of extra targets and any given week Kelce could easily go for 2 TDs and break the slate. Maybe his age is showing? If you are playing the game then fading him at this ownership given the recent production is the likely move, but I do have some faith that he gets back to his former self here soon. I have no issue playing him even during a slump.
Pivot: George Kittle ($5,500)
Isaiah Likely ($4,200)
DFS Hero has him as the 2nd highest owned TE at around 15% which is likely where I will be going on this slate. Yes the 49ers defense is elite across the board. However, they have a funnel for TEs, allowing them to get targeted at an elite level. They have allowed the 8th most TE targets this season which is kind of crazy. This feels like a great spot for Likely with almost everyone else in a really tough matchup. He is cheap and lets you fit in pricier guys everywhere else. He has 18 and 19 DK points in the last two weeks which might feel like chasing here, but if it can work for Demarcus Robinson on Thursday night, it can likely happen for Isaiah in this one (see what I did there).
Pivot: Darren Waller ($4,500)
Other Considerations:
Austin Hooper ($2,500)
DST
Eagles DST ($3,400)
Chiefs DST ($3,200)
Giants DST ($2,700)
Ravens DST ($2,500)
