NFL - Week 15 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Matthew Stafford ($6,000)
When we talk about cupcake matchups, it is usually in reference to how bad the opposing teams defense is at one facet. Well Stafford gets to face Washington who has allowed the league’s most pass yards/game and pass TDs/game this season… Yeah Stafford is in about as great a spot as it gets. He is easy to start with two top WR options and even his RB who has 17+ DK points in 7 of his 9 starts this year. Stafford himself has been incredibly consistent over the last month with 22+ DK points in each of the last 3 games. This is another amazing spot for him to continue that strong run of play.
Pivot: Jordan Love ($6,200)
Brock Purdy ($6,800)
Same things can be said for Brock as I did for Stafford. He is a bit pricier, but the matchup is amazing against Arizona who has allowed the 5th most pass TDs/game this season. With how efficient this offense is, I see no reason Purdy and Co. can’t just decimate them on their way to another win. He has plenty of guys you can stack him with, including CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle. With how he has been playing, there is no doubt he can pay off this price tag in a great matchup.
Pivot: Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Josh Allen ($8,200)
This is the game a lot of the field is going to want to stack. Currently, Allen is the preferred QB option over Dak, so if you want a bit of ownership leverage then Dak is a fine option. This is essentially a must win game for Allen who has to keep pace in the crowded AFC landscape. This game should be incredibly high scoring and Josh is playing at an incredibly high rate this season with multiple 30+ DK point games and also has big time rushing upside. The stacking options have huge upside as well in Diggs and Gabe Davis. The run backs are also plentiful. If you are going to pay up at QB, it should definitely be from this game.
Pivot: Dak Prescott ($8,000)
Other Considerations:
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800)
Sam Howell ($6,300)
Case Keenum ($4,000)
Chalk RBs:
Ezekiel Elliot ($5,800)
It is wild that in 2023 we are getting a chalk Zeke not on the Cowboys but the Patriots are their record is awful. Regardless of the matchup or game script against KC, Zeke will be on the field and will get touches. He has 50 touches in the last two weeks… that really says it all. Volume is king in DFS, especially for RBs and that is what you get with him this week. There should be an even higher with the Pats likely throwing for a majority of the game to catch up which means more check downs for Zeke. DFS Hero has him for well over 20% ownership and the way the industry has been under-projecting across the board I wouldn’t be surprised if we get over 30% ownership on him. I am fine eating the chalk here.
Pivot: Jerome Ford ($5,500)
Kyren Williams ($7,500)
Ever since the Commanders traded Sweat and Chase Young, the defensive line just hasn’t been the same. Kyren has been electric this season with 17+ DK points in 7 of his 9 games. Against a bang average rush defense that will let the Rams move the ball at will, Kyren will have plenty of opportunities to put up points. It is hard to get away from a guy that has 20+ touches in 4 straight games and is in a great matchup with what should be a strong running game script for him. I am a bit leery given his high ownership and the price. I would prefer a few others, but the field will likely steam him up big time even if Stafford and Co. get big ownership as well.
Pivot: Rachaad White ($7,000)
Christian McCaffrey ($9,300)
Just like Purdy, CMC is in an amazing spot against Arizona who has allowed the 3rd most rush yards/game and 5th most rush TDs/game. Price is never an issue for him because the ceiling is well over 40 DK points if all the chips fall his way. DFS Hero has him in a similar boat as Williams and Zeke at around 25% ownership and an optimal rate of 44%. That gives him one of the largest leverage scores on the slate (right behind Zeke) so play CMC regardless of the ownership. If he does have a ceiling game it is likely you won’t be able to recover.
Pivot: Alvin Kamara ($8,600)
Other Considerations:
Raheem Mostert ($7,100)
Derrick Henry ($6,900)
Bijan Robinson ($6,800)
Tony Pollard ($6,700)
Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,000)
Antonio Gibson ($5,200)
Chalk WRs:
Garrett Wilson ($5,800)
Any time Zach Wilson kind of finds a pulse, Garrett Wilson is going to inevitably get steamed up. A WR of his talent, target share and TD upside at this price doesn’t happen often and that is what we have this week. DFS Hero has him as the only WR with over 20% projected ownership so for cash games he is a must. You can’t discount double digit targets in 3 of the last 5 games and 14 last week. They face Miami which might be a tough individual matchup, but Hopkins was able to torch them last week. Why can’t Wilson? Even at the elevated ownership, I like him regardless.
Pivot: Romeo Doubs ($5,300)
Jayden Reed ($4,900)
He has kind of separated himself as Love’s favorite target with Christian Watson out. He got 10 targets last week and was used in the run game numerous times, even scoring a rush TD. With both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon banged up, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if that rush upside is elevated even more this week. On top of that, he faces a TB secondary that can’t stop a nose bleed allowing the 3rd most pass yards this season. The price is extremely cheap for the role and upside and the field is very much recognizing that. He is projected for 17% ownership by DFS Hero which for me actually seems low. I see no reason he can’t be another optimal play this week.
Pivot: Robert Woods ($4,200)
CeeDee Lamb ($9,200)
It is looking like the preferred pay up WR is going to be Lamb and for good reason. He has averaged 13 targets/game over the last 5 weeks and hasn’t dipped below 16 DK points (43 DK point ceiling) in that stretch. Buffalo has a lot of secondary injuries which should make it easy for him to once again get his due. Dak is just targeting him at such a high rate that his floor is incredible. With this game projected to be a shootout, Lamb will likely get plenty of targets and it is just a matter of can he get the TDs. I see no reason he can’t so I am fine rolling with him.
Pivot: Stefon Diggs ($8,400)
Other Considerations:
Cooper Kupp ($7,800)
Deebo Samuel ($7,700)
Puka Nacua ($7,300)
Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200)
Chris Olave ($7,100)
DJ Moore ($6,900)
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200)
Rashee Rice ($6,100)
Amari Cooper ($6,000)
Gabe Davis ($5,500)
Drake London ($5,400)
Demario Douglas ($3,900)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700)
Jalin Hyatt ($3,200)
Chalk TEs:
Trey McBride ($5,200)
The usage compared to the price of McBride is just ridiculous. This team is doing what they can to get him the ball and it has been incredibly effective. He has 9+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games (7+ in all of them). He has scored 20+ DK points in half of those so the ceiling is there and against SF they are going to have to throw. While they don’t allow a lot of TE scoring, they have allowed TE targets at a top 10 rate this season which is more what we are looking for. He is affordable, has a ceiling and is being used for a TE at an elite rate. I love him this week even in a tough matchup.
Pivot: Dalton Schultz ($4,900)
Chig Okonkwo ($2,900)
Someone of his talent level should not be this cheap. He has a steady floor with 5+ targets in each of the last 3 games. He hasn’t scored below 8 DK points in that stretch and against the Texans who have allowed the most TE targets this season and 3rd most TE DK points/game, I see no reason this can’t be the week he finally breaks out. The stars are just aligning for him in this spot and he lets you fit in a lot of high priced options. DFS Hero does have him projected for 14% ownership which is in a bucket with the highest owned TEs this week, but I still think he can be worth it.
Pivot: Tucker Kraft ($3,000)
David Njoku ($4,700)
Everyone loves to chase a big TE week. Njoku went for 27 DK points last week and honestly it wasn’t shocking. His target share with Flacco had been ticking up. It was only a matter of time before he had the big game. The Bears don’t have the best TE defense so no questions there and with the way Chicago has been playing, this could be a sneaky shootout if they can find a way to get through the tough Browns defense. At this price tag and projected ownership (DFS Hero has him at around 12% ownership and as a poor leverage play), I am a bit skeptical of chasing. I think there are some better options and considering his history of being extremely boom or bust, we might have used up all the boom last week. Tread with caution.
Pivot: Cole Kmet ($4,500)
Other Considerations:
Travis Kelce ($7,600)
George Kittle ($5,800)
Jake Ferguson ($4,800)
Logan Thomas ($3,700)
Cade Otton ($3,200)
DST
Titans DST ($3,700)
Falcons DST ($3,600)
Browns DST ($3,500)
Panthers DST ($2,800)
Jets DST ($2,500)
Bills DST ($2,400)
