NFL - Seahawks vs. Eagles Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
**All article updates, injury news, cores and additional slate tips/strategies will be posted exclusively in the Discord or Twitter so feel free to join or follow!**
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
Seahawks vs. Eagles (PHI -3. 45.5)
My favorite CPTNs will be highlighted PURPLE and BOLD
Seahawks
The Seahawks are 3 point underdogs at home with a 21.25 point implied team total.
Geno Smith ($9,400): Even with his availability in doubt, I am going to assume he will play or atleast that is what Vegas seems to be saying. If they thought he was out and it was going to be Drew Lock I think this would be a wider spread than just 3 points. If he does play I actually think this is a fine matchup for him. The Eagles secondary has already looked dreadful this season allowing the 4th most pass yards/game this season. They are now without Darius Slay he has been the only pulse for that unit this season even if he hasn’t been good by his standards. The weapons are there and the last time Geno played was against Dallas where he put up a massive 33 DK point performance against a great defense. This isn’t a great one so he should be able to have a solid performance.
Drew Lock ($9,200): Personally I think the rumors of Geno sitting are true so we should see Lock start. I mean he looked semi-competent against the best defense in football last week (SF) scoring 17 DK points and tossing 2 TDs. I think the matchup suits him very well and the passing script should be in full effect with the Eagles having a top 10 rush defense and should get out to a big lead. On showdown slates it can be tough to get leverage, especially at QB. DFS Hero has Lock for only 42% ownership while also being in the optimal lineup 45% of the time. I love that you might actually be able to get a leg up on the field at a high scoring position so sign me up.
Kenneth Walker ($7,800): This isn’t a good spot for him whatsoever. They seem to want to get Charbonnet integrated as an RBBC which really takes away from his upside. If they get down, I could see them abandoning the run and letting Lock sling it while Walker takes a back seat to Charbs. He still looks a bit injured and the price tag just isn’t fitting for what role and upside he has right now and in this game. The analytics just do not side with Walker tonight.
Zach Charbonnet ($4,000): At this price tag he seems like a great value especially considering there isn’t much value to be had tonight. He got similar carries to Walker last week and it isn’t like he can’t be a productive pass catcher. The narrative doesn’t fit for either of them, but if I had to choose one it would be Charbs. At a fraction of the ownership (DFS Hero has Charbs for only 10%), I really think I would rather side here over spend a large chunk of my salary on a banged up RB in a bad matchup.
Deejay Dallas ($400): The only way he sees more than 1 offensive snap is if one of Walker or Charbs were to get hurt. I just don’t see and hate playing injury narratives so don’t go with Dallas.
DK Metcalf ($9,600): The talent and matchup are there for him 100%. It is more of a “can Lock or Geno get him the ball” angle that you have to take. He is definitely the down field threat which relies more of strong QB arm and accuracy. It was a weird game last week against a division opponent that really knew how to lock him up. This is a really solid bounce back spot but it all hinges on Lock or Geno playing well. If they struggle then the whole offense will probably go up in flames. DK is in the high risk, high reward bucket per usual and I like that for GPPs.
Tyler Lockett ($6,600): A guy of his talent shouldn’t be this cheap but here we are. He is projected to be the highest owned Seahawk by DFS Hero at over 50% and I think it is justified. The matchup is great and the targets should be there even if this offense is built around getting the ball to a bunch of different guys. Similar to DK though is it really rides on Lock or Geno. I think I trust him more with Geno, but Lock has no issue throwing it to him given he led the team in receiving yards last week and was 2nd in targets (just behind JSN). It is tough, but I also think I a would side with Lockett if Geno plays and DK if Lock plays because he is more willing to chuck it down field even if he sucks. Fading Lockett does give you a lot of leverage over the field so keep that in mind when figuring out your narrative.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,600): JSN led the team in targets last week with Lock under center and that is probably due to his work with the 2nd unit (and by default Lock) early in the year. They are definitely trying to get him the ball more, but when he is this close in price to Lockett, I would much rather just find the salary to go up to him. However, he is getting very little ownership because of the inflated price tag which makes him a great leverage play. That could be the difference maker alone. Say you fade Lockett and just go to JSN in the same lineup construction (burn the $1,000). You are already boxing out almost 85% of the field you are projected to fade JSN tonight, but also the rest of the 50% that went Lockett. The matchup is a bit tough against Bradley Roby in the slot who “statistically” has been their best CB. If you want to go full on big brain, chuck him at the CPTN and probably get unique right away.
Jake Bobo ($1,000): I think Bobo used up a lot of his steam early in the year because the snap share has been coming down with JSN emerging and this team loves to rock a 2 TE or 3 TE set. It just fits their offensive mindset more. He doesn’t have more than 1 target in any of the last 5 games and got none last week. I would prefer to go balanced than try to force Bobo in even if DFS Hero has him for only 5% ownership.
Noah Fant ($2,600): I can definitely get down to Fant this week. He is incredibly cheap and playing on around 65% of the plays. The QB doesn’t really matter because TEs in this offense are more script-based and they will definitely have to throw a good bit. He has seen his target share tick up lately with 4 in each of the last two games. The Eagles have had a bottom 12 TE defense for a considerable amount of the season. He might not have a big ceiling, but the floor he has and the price could force him into being a great play tonight.
Colby Parkinson ($200): I hate chasing cheap guys that scored the week prior which is what we have with Colby. He put up 2/28/1 last week on around 50% of the plays. I would much prefer finding the salary to go to Fant, but atleast Colby plays and probably won’t get any ownership. He only needs a catch or two to be viable. He is a deep field GPP play only.
Will Dissly ($200): I actually like Dissly more if Geno plays, but that is a long shot. He plays on around 30% of the plays and gets about 1-2 targets every week. If he can do anything with him then he can likely be viable. I don’t hate it, but I like it more than Colby.
Jason Myers ($4,800): He has actually been a great kicker this season against poor defense. Outside of the last two weeks where they played DAL and SF, he has scored very well. I think with how bad the Eagles secondary is, they can find a way to move the ball and get into FG range, but then Lock will stall out and force Myers to have to come out and kick. I like him.
Seahawks DST ($3,400): With the Eagles slumping and needing a win to get back to possibly winning the NFC, I think they come out and try to put up big points. This is a definitely a get right spot so I wouldn’t be playing much Seahawks DST if any.
Eagles
The Eagles are 3 point favorites on the road with a 23.75 point implied team total.
Jalen Hurts ($11,400): He is definitely feeling the effects of his rushing upside. He is questionable tonight but leaning towards playing. They need a win and this Seahawks defense is statistically not good having allowed the 7th most pass yards/game and 10th most rush yards/game on the season. I will come out and say the price tag and injury do give me a bit of concern for his chances at being optimal. They know they want him healthy for the playoffs. They likely will draw up fewer designed runs for him and might not be having him do the tush push on 3rd or 4th and 1 as much as they would have earlier in the season. There is a small chance his upside is diminished tonight. That said he almost always is in the optimal lineup in some capacity when he is on a showdown slate so I will still be playing him. I think his WRs get a small ceiling bump because they might have him be more of a pocket passer tonight to keep him healthy. This is just a spot I might just leave him at UTIL over playing him at CPTN for the reasons above.
Marcus Mariota ($6,000): Now if Hurts is out then I am all for riding Mariota in every lineup and at both CPTN and UTIL. He has rushing upside and it isn’t like they will be trying to keep him healthy. He is super cheap for a starting QB and can get to the optimal lineup in a number of ways. If you want to big brain the hell out of things I don’t hate tossing him into a $0.50 or $1 lineup even if Hurts plays. He could come out injured early and then you get Mariota at 1% ownership if not less than that and have a huge leg up on the field. Play him if Hurts is out 100%.
D’Andre Swift ($8,000): He hasn’t been that great over the last few weeks with just 3 and 4 DK points against DAL and SF the last two weeks. This is a much better matchup for him to bounce back in so I have no qualms with playing him. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th most rush yards/game and 4th most rush TDs/game this season so the matchup is juicy. With my narrative being they don’t want Hurts to get hurt running it all game, Swift could see a TD upside boost if they get deep into the red zone. On the flipside, the Eagles also know they want to keep Swift healthy as well since he has some injury history. In games the Eagles have leads though it has been almost a 70/30 or 60/40 split between Swift and Gainwell so with me thinking this game is also heavily in the Eagles favor, I think Swift is in for a good night.
Kenneth Gainwell ($4,400): I want to like Gainwell more because he been more of a factor the last couple of weeks and is likely in for atleast 40% of the snaps regardless of script. I just think with the script not in his favor for extra snaps and the limited touches already, I would prefer say the kickers or other guys around his price. DFS Hero does have him for sub 10% ownership which on a showdown slate is massive leverage. He is definitely more of a high risk, high reward play that I am siding away from personally.
Boston Scott ($1,800): It is more a formality that I even mention him, but he will likely see a couple of snaps. Don’t play him though.
AJ Brown ($11,200): He is just so consistent with 15+ DK points in all but 3 games this season. There shouldn’t be an issue with him getting his targets this game with Seattle being bad defensively. The price is the only thing getting in the way. There isn’t an abundance of value and if you want Brown and Hurts you definitely are going to have to have some cheapies. I am never going to talk you off of him and I think you need Brown and Hurts so lock and load on Brown tonight.
Devonta Smith ($9,000): He is one of those guys if I am going to play him I am going to play him at CPTN to leverage the field off of Brown and Hurts + he has a massive ceiling but low floor. He is very similar to Brown for this game. The matchup is easy and he has double digit DK points in each of the last 6 games with double digit targets in each of the last 2 games. I have no issue with leveraging down to him over Brown if you need to save some salary. It will be incredibly tough to fit all 3 in and I still side with Brown and Hurts first, but Smith is a fine consolation prize off of Brown if you can’t figure it out salary wise.
Quez Watkins ($800): This is where things get dicey because this offense is so condensed around 4-5 guys that the others suffer from it and are very tough to predict. His price is cheap and he is running as the WR3 snap wise (47% of the snaps last week). He is two weeks removed from getting 4 targets and 3 catches. I think if I am playing a cheap Eagle it would be him. He might have to do it early if they get an early lead and just run to chew the clock, but atleast the numbers side with him.
Olamide Zacchaeus ($2,200): Why would I play Zac over Watkins for $1,400 more and he plays on half as many snaps? He does have big play upside, but I am a numbers guy and it wouldn’t make sense for me to go with him over Quez. He is a hard fade for me, but if you like his big play upside enough I guess I understand it.
Julio Jones ($1,200): It isn’t 2019… He is in the same boat as Zac for $1,000 less. They played the same number of snaps last week and he doesn’t have a target in either of the last two games. Big fade for me.
Dallas Goedert ($6,200): A lot of tonight hinges on Goedert vs. JSN/Lockett in my opinion. They are all priced close and have similar profiles target share wise. If you want to just play the game then pick the one with the lowest ownership which is JSN and Goedert for sure. Nothing screams out that Seattle has a good TE defense and they allow a ton of yards all around. If you want to leverage the massive Lockett chalk, Goedert is definitely a great way to do it. He is due for a TD here soon and has had a great target share in games that script for Eagles to win.
Jack Stoll ($200): I see no reason to play him, but he should see around 25% of the snaps as more of a blocker. That is about all you can say. Even when Goedert was out he was trash. Why would he do anything with him in?
Jake Elliott ($5,000): I think he has a great floor with the implied team total and porous defense that the Seahawks have. They do have some solid secondary pieces that could make it tough for the Eagles to score in the red zone. I guess with me liking both Myers and Elliott I will be heavy on kickers tonight.
Eagles DST ($4,600): If Drew Lock plays then they might be a lock for me. He is bound to turn it over a few times and take some sacks. If it is Geno under center I think the game plan will also be to try to get after him as much as possible knowing he is injured which will lead to defense points. I like them regardless.
My Narrative:
The Eagles really get after it early and take a big lead
Hurts, Brown and Swift are the ones to do it
JSN > Lockett for leverage
Brown > Smith
Play atleast 1 kicker (if not both)
Punts are Quez, Fant and Charbonnet
Eagles 4/2 or 3/3 stacks
Eagles win 33-17
