NFL - Raiders vs. Chargers Showdown Preview
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Raiders vs. Chargers (LV -3, 34.5)
My favorite CPTNs will be highlighted PURPLE and BOLD
Raiders
The Raiders are 3 point favorites at home with a 18.75 point implied team total.
Aidan O’Connell ($9,600): He looked like absolute trash last week and has barely been able to get over 10 DK points in all of his starts. He might be a decent game manager, but for fantasy it doesn’t really translate. With Josh Jacobs likely out, he might be forced to showcase his throwing talents which is why I have some interest. He has virtually no rushing upside though so I wouldn’t CPTN him, but as a UTIL I think he is fine. I just don’t know if there is much upside to him in GPPs when DFS Hero has him projected for over 65% ownership. It might be smarter in those formats to leverage away from him and hope he fails.
Josh Jacobs ($10,200): I am firmly in the boat that he doesn’t play. However if he does I see no reason to not play him over someone like O’Connell. His ceiling is much higher and the Chargers’ defense is truly bad on all accounts outside of Khalil Mack. They allow over 1 rush TD/game so its more likely than not he falls into the endzone and the last time these two teams played Jacobs ended with 27 DK points (130 totals yards, 1 TD and 8 catches). He is set up nicely for success and doesn’t rely on a struggling QB to get him the ball. What more can you ask for especially when the script should be for the Raiders to run the ball a good bit. If he is out go to the next two guys below.
Ameer Abdullah ($4,800): I am in the boat that Abdullah is the starting RB if Jacobs were to be out. If Jacobs is in, Abdullah would be too overpriced so I wouldn’t go there. If he is out, this is far too cheap for a starting RB that has upside in the pass game. They will likely throw the ball a bit more, but that won’t takeaway from his upside given they check down to their RBs a lot. The Chargers do not have a good run defense by any means so there is no issue there. He will likely be massively owned so keep that in mind, but it should be worth it.
Zamir White ($3,000): Honestly, I think he was a wasted pick for them. He hasn’t ever been that efficient and is currently the RB3 behind Abdullah and Jacobs. If Jacobs plays he is a complete fade. If he doesn’t then I still won’t be playing him, but there is an avenue for him to get a few snaps here and there. Definitely a deep field GPP dart.
Davante Adams ($11,200): It has been sad to see his fall off. DFS Hero has him projected for 68% ownership yet is only in the optimal in 41.6% of the time for the lowest leverage score on the slate. The numbers say he is not in a good spot and I would tend to agree. However, I am a law of averages guy and he is too talented to continue scoring just 10-12 DK points and not have a big game. The Chargers defense has allowed the 4th most pass yards/game this season. They can’t stop a nose bleed in the secondary and he still has the talent. It is up to O’Connell to get him there, but I still love his upside. The price is what creates the poor optimal rate.
Jakobi Meyers ($8,600): The flip side has happened for Meyers than Adams. He is definitely outperforming expectations so far this year and is still producing. He has definitely cooled off from the start of the season, but the targets are there and the role hasn’t changed. The QB play has which is what scares me. Atleast he is a bit cheaper. The ownership is about half of Adams at 30% and the optimal rate is still only 23% which is negative leverage. However, you have to play someone on this slate and with it being a crap shoot the defensive numbers for the Chargers definitely favor him (just like they favor Adams).
Hunter Renfrow ($4,000): There is definitely some merit to playing Renfrow here. Again, the Chargers allow a lot of pass yards. O’Connell seems to like him as a safety valve more than Jimmy G did since he is finally getting targets. He has 5, 4 and 5 in the last three weeks which is very solid for someone of this price tag. I think he is a good floor guy, but the ceiling seems limited with virtually no TD upside. I like him, but don’t expect an optimal performance. DFS Hero has him for around 25% ownership which is manageable but only optimal in just 17% of their simulations. One of these Raider WRs is bound to beat the odds and end up in a good spot so why not Renfrow?
Tre Tucker ($1,200): He definitely has some upside, but I just don’t know how to predict the volume being there. He has one target in each of the last two weeks but then had 7 the week prior to those two. With almost no TD upside, it is pretty fair to say he is a bad play tonight and a deep field GPP option at best.
DeAndre Carter ($200): He hasn’t gotten a target or more than 15% of the snaps since W5. I wouldn’t go there at all.
Michael Mayer ($3,200): The snap share is fantastic at over 90% now. Getting him the ball has been another. With the Chargers having allowed the 6th most TE catches on the season, there is a path for him to be an asset tonight. He is a week removed from having more than 4 targets in each of the last 3 games. He is projected for too much ownership, so I think there is a path to him being a great leverage play tonight.
Austin Hooper ($800): What is wilder is Hooper is projected for double the ownership as Mayer and has barely been productive as of late. The snap share is dipping and has yet to see more than 2 targets once this ENTIRE SEASON. I am fading that ownership for sure. When someone is the chalk punt play on a SD slate, it is very wise to just go against the grain and fade it.
Daniel Carlson ($4,600): Kickers are always tough to predict, but atleast the Raiders are favorites. In low scoring games, kickers do become more valuable so I have some interest. I am not rushing to get him into my lineups though.
Raiders DST ($4,200): I am never a fan of defenses, especially an average one like Las Vegas. However, this Chargers offense is without Herbert, Keenan Allen and still have Staley/Moore coaching this team (they suck). We have zero clue if the Chargers offense will be able to manufacture anything at all. At this price I am completely fine going to them.
Chargers
The Chargers are 3 point underdogs on the road with a 15.75 point implied team total.
Easton Stick ($9,400): He has attempted a total of 25 passes in his career and now has to suit up and play a prime time game on the road. There are injuries all over the receiving group with guys coming back and now Keenan out. The only reliable guy is likely to be Ekeler who is now in a timeshare (we think). This could be a nightmare for him and he has one of the worst coaching staffs calling plays for him. DFS Hero has him at over 50% owned which is more a proxy of Keenan Allen being out and you having to spend your salary somewhere. I much prefer O’Connell for similar ownership and only $200 more.
Austin Ekeler ($11,000): He very well could get 30 touches if the coaching staff just goes back to him exclusively. He was very efficient last week with 15 touches and 21 DK points. I think at this point his backups are just not NFL quality backs. Keenan being out should mean that volume just goes up. He is my favorite guy on the slate. The Raiders have allowed the 8th most rush yards/game this season so no reason he can’t be efficient running it and he is always going to be a target hog. Now that a backup QB is in place that likely won’t be trying to push the ball downfield, dump offs should be very much in play for Ekeler.
Joshua Kelley ($6,800): This price has the coach speak from last night baked in. He got 3 carries. Definitely a complete fade. If he beats me so be it.
Isaiah Spiller ($3,800): A little more tolerable with 6 carries last week and is much cheaper than Kelley. I still think he would need an Ekeler injury or early fumble + a couple decent runs to gain the “hot hand” and bulk of the work. Interesting GPP play if you opt to fade Ekeler, but I am not going there.
Joshua Palmer ($6,200): I really don’t think any of us know how the Charger’s WR room, snap share and target share will shake out tonight, but Palmer is the most expensive and coming back from a 6 week hiatus. I think from a talent perspective he is the best on and prior to his injury he was seeing around 6-7 targets/game and that was with Keenan Allen and (for some) Mike Williams playing. I think for the price I like him, but this is so hard to predict. In terms of DFS Hero point projections he is right behind Johnson, but that could easily end up being incorrect. The thing is Palmer is coming in at almost double the ownership. I still like Palmer, but if that holds strong for GPPs I might prefer the other side.
Quentin Johnson ($5,400): He very well could be the WR1 in terms of snaps and targets and I wouldn’t in the least bit be surprised. He is coming off of back to back double digit DK point performances. I think a lot comes down to can he get separation and can Stick get him the ball efficiently. DFS Hero has him at just 20% ownership (I expect that to come up) which for a SD slate is considerably lower than expected. To me that makes him a good leverage spot to target.
Jaylen Guyton ($1,400): He was the WR4 in terms of snaps last week and traded Keenan for Palmer essentially. I do expect him to play on about 50% of the snaps and a couple of targets. For the price he really doesn’t have to do much, but DFS Hero only has him projected for 4.6 DK points. He got one target last week. I just don’t see it for him.
Alex Erickson ($1,000): Now if I am punting a Chargers’ WR this would be the one. He got 7 targets last week and was only able to convert on 1 of them. Maybe the box score chasers won’t see that and just think he is an after thought. He played on 66% of the snaps, got a large target share and now Keenan is out. Sign me up all day. It lets you fit in all of the top options and he should have some upside as long as that game last week wasn’t a fluke. Plus I bet he has a ton of work catching passes from Stick during practice with the 2nd team offense. Maybe he is just Stick’s guy.
Derius Davis ($600): He does fit more of a slot WR role so that could be a natural replacement for Keenan. I just feel like Palmer is more of that natural replacement which really kills Davis’ chance of getting a decent snap share. I won’t personally be getting there because of the fact he got 0 offensive snaps last week, but there is a chance his electric nature gets him on the field for a few specialize packages.
Semi Fehoko: ($400): Similar to Davis, with all of the injuries I could see him getting a few snaps. I won’t be playing him, but it would be wrong to not atleast mention him.
Gerald Everett ($5,200): He could end up being the play with question marks about all of the Chargers WRs. He got 8 targets last week and the Raiders are top 10 in TE catches allowed. He will be an easy check down for Stick and hopefully can make things easier for the whole team to stay on the field. He might not have the highest ceiling with Stick instead of Herbert, but no one in this game is in a ceiling spot so what difference does it make. DFS Hero has him for only 20% ownership which just feels way too low. Then you factor in Parham might be out which gives him probably 100% of the TE snaps.
Donald Parham ($2,800): He is questionable tonight following multiple limited practices. I think he plays and even if he does it is risky being pretty much a TD exclusive guy. What I mean by that is he doesn’t get many targets unless it is in the red zone and the Chargers might struggle to move the ball and actually be in the red zone often. I won’t be going there, but atleast he does have some TD upside if he plays.
Nick Vannett ($200): No one is going to play this guy but I do think he gets around 30-40% of the snaps if Parham were to be out. If Parham plays he likely isn’t going to get enough snaps and would need a lucky TD, but if Parham sits keep him on your radar. The backup TE narrative has hit a few times this season.
Stone Smartt ($200): Same thing for Smartt as Vannett. He was a DNP-CD last game but if this one he gets the spot call up over Vannett and Parham is out he could get a decent amount of snaps.
Cameron Dicker ($5,000): Given the implied team total and unknown for whether or not Stick will be able to move the ball efficiently, I find it hard to get to Dicker. However, if this is a slog of a game and ends with a low score, the kicker points could become very valuable. I don’t love him but I don’t hate him and at the 11% ownership DFS Hero has him projected for, he could end up being a decent leverage play.
Chargers DST ($4,400): Why are they more expensive than the Raiders DST that just held the Vikings to 3 points? Yes O’Connell isn’t the best but I won’t be getting there unless it is in a massively under-leveraged lineup. This defense has allowed the 4th most yards this season. I see no reason the Raiders can’t atleast move the ball and score this season. The only thing they have going for them is they have the 2nd most sacks this season which should get them some points and the Raiders OL isn’t anything special.
My Narrative:
Teams are able to move the ball, but scoring is at a minimum
Kickers become more viable, but yardage and catches add up for position players
QBs might not make it to the optimal, but one should squeak through with the value plays
Gerald Everett > Quentin Johnson > Joshua Palmer
Ekeler is a must play
Davante Adams has a vintage game
Punt plays would be Alex Erickson or Hunter Renfrow
4/2 or 3/3 stacks both ways
Raiders win a boring game 17-10
