NFL - Week 1 Top Plays
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. Guys that had an injury on the depth chart ahead of them, increasing their role would fit this mold perfectly (ex. Jonathan Taylor being placed on the PUP and Zack Moss being hurt has caused Deon Jackson to have a big role in W1 at just $4,100 will likely see some serious ownership). I want to try to find the guys that might not be seeing such high ownership, but are in spots similar to the chalk pieces that are getting hyped up. With that said, let’s jump right in!
QBs:
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500)
Everyone and their brother is going to be targeting Tua and Herbert in the highest implied total game on the slate. This could definitely mean that Trevor gets squeezed in ownership and come in under owned. The Jaguars have the 4th highest implied team total on the slate (25.75 points). Trevor has a shiny new toy to work with in Calvin Ridley, a great WR2 in Christian Kirk, a solid backfield that has pass catching abilities and a good TE in Engram to target. Let’s not forget about Zay Jones who showed flashes last year. All of his targets are affordable to stack with and there are some solid run back options in Pittman and Deon Jackson (Jackson might be super chalky but there are a good amount of affordable RBs this week so it might not be too bad). I think this is a great leverage spot for Lawrence who is in line to take a big step this season.
Geno Smith ($6,100)
Geno has no excuses this year for not continuing his success from the last. They went out and spent a first rounder on arguably the best WR in the draft class in JSN. He has DK and Lockett to continue to lean on along with a serviceable TE option in Fant. The Seahawks have the 5th highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points) and play against a decimated Rams defense that is a shell of it’s former self. You can stack Geno in so many ways and the field is likely to spread out the ownership to all 3 WRs so total ownership on the stack might be a bit lower than some of the other stacks where the target shares are confined to 1 or 2 options. Similar to Lawrence, there are some cheap run back options in Jefferson, Higbee and Puka Nacua to allow for studs in the rest of your lineup. I think the last thing to mention is Kenneth Walker picked up a mid week injury. This could mean they focus more on passing than the run game, increasing Geno’s floor and ceiling. The only downside is Geno will be a bit higher owned than Trevor. There are a lot of people recognizing that the Seahawks are in a good spot this week.
Derek Carr ($5,300)
This could be the ultimate big brain play of the week or it could be an absolute fish move to run with Carr at QB. He has plenty of weapons to target in Olave, MT, Shaheed and Juwan Johnson + other options. Unlike the other cheap QB options, the Saints are middle of the pack in team implied total (22.5 points). The Titans gave up the most pass yards in the league last season and their RB room is extremely thin (Kamara SUSP and Kendre Miller injured). I think there is a serious avenue for the Saints having to pass it a ton here. The Titans came to play this year with the addition of Hopkins and will keep this game competitive. While Carr might not be the best QB, he still has the weapons to make him look serviceable and at $5,300 he really doesn’t need to go crazy or anything. He would be my preferred cheap QB this week in a sneaky good shootout game environment
Other Considerations:
Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
Joe Burrow ($7,100)
Justin Herbert ($6,900)
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)
Deshaun Watson ($6,000)
Anthony Richardson ($5,600)
Jordan Love ($5,000)
Sam Howell ($4,900)
RBs:
Aaron Jones ($6,300)
We all know that the Packers are having some serious injury problems (Watson likely out and Doubs seriously in question). That basically leaves the Packers with just rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave as the only guys of note that I think are talented. Jones will likely get a massive amount of usage in both the run game and pass game. They play the Bears who aren’t that great and Jones put up 10.5 and 38 DK points against them last year. What I am really stuck on is the usage. He will be a target machine out of the backfield and still get 10+ carries. The price is also quite low given he has been a top 10 RB for like 3 years running and is priced as the RB13 for the week. I am not too concerned about the lower implied team total because the spread is very close. This should be a competitive game where Jones is featured. The only thing really stopping him is AJ Dillon who in his own right is a good play as well.
Jamaal Williams ($5,100)
If you aren’t going against the grain and doing a Carr stack, I would suggest getting some Jamaal in your lineups. Again, Kamara is suspended and Kendre Miller is a rookie and banged up. There really isn’t anyone on the roster of talent so Jamaal Williams is likely to get all of the work here. This is definitely a price vs. usage play. I don’t think there is anyone at this price or below that will see the same volume and we all know his TD upside is immense. Give me all the Jamaal Williams this week, but I would probably not full stack it with other Saints.
Other Considerations:
Austin Ekeler ($8,400)
Bijan Robinson ($8,000)
Travis Etienne ($6,900)
Joe Mixon ($6,800)
JK Dobbins ($6,600)
Javonte Williams ($5,700)
Miles Sanders ($5,600)
Rachaad White ($5,500)
Raheem Mostert ($5,400)
Khalil Herbert ($5,300)
Antonio Gibson ($5,200)
AJ Dillon ($5,200)
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,100)
Zach Charbonnet ($4,800)** If Kenneth Walker is OUT
Deon Jackson ($4,100)** If Zack Moss is OUT
WRs:
Davante Adams ($7,900)
Again, the point of this is to point out players that could be leverage and Adams is the ultimate leverage play. No one is going to play him when he is just below Chase, Tyreek and JJeff and right above Keenan and Waddle. There is concern about whether or not Garoppolo will be good for Adams. My response is if Adams can do it with Carr, he can do it with Jimmy G. The matchup against Denver and specifically Surtain on paper might be tough, but Surtain and Adams seem to have a bit of a rivalry that will get Adams ready to go out and play. Not to mention last time they played he put up 7/141/2 with Surtain blanketing him all game last meeting and 100+ yards in their first meeting. This is definitely a high risk play, but Adams is still a top 5 WR talent in the league and could be a massive leverage off the chalk this week.
Mike Evans ($6,300)
Another massive leverage play when everyone will go down to Godwin for $400 cheaper. The implied total for the Bucs is a bit concerning at just 20.25 points, but the Vikings allowed the 2nd most pass yards in the league last year and Evans is always live to break a slate. I could see him being max 2% owned in this spot. Another big reason for liking Evans here is Baker is more than willing to stretch the field and throw some jump balls. He is actually pretty good at it, ranking as one of the most accurate deep passers in the league. This is a very sneaky spot to roll out Evans who I think is in for another 1000 yards season.
Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900) and Deebo Samuel ($5,500)
I get there are a ton of mouths to feed in this SF offense and on any given week they all could bust, but Aiyuk finished as a top 15 WR last season and is priced as the WR36 this week… make that make sense to me. I honestly could say the same thing about Deebo who is priced as the WR24 this week but did sputter last season at times. Playing in Pittsburgh might not be the best matchup and yes the implied game total is very concerning (just 41.5 points), but once again with all the value options across the board this middle range of WRs might be completely forgotten about in a stars and scrubs build. One of Aiyuk or Deebo is primed to have a big day with Kittle’s availability in question. CMC is not going to be able to handle every bit of the offensive production when the Steelers were a top 10 rush defense last year. This is a spot where I think Vegas and the field are going to be sleeping on the 49ers.
Other Considerations:
Justin Jefferson ($8,800)
Tyreek Hill ($8,200)
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)
Keenan Allen ($7,300)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,100)
DK Metcalf ($7,000)
Tee Higgins ($6,800)
Tyler Lockett ($6,700)
Calvin Ridley ($6,500)
Chris Olave ($6,500)
Terry McLaurin ($6,400)
Michael Pittman ($6,200)
DJ Moore ($6,100)
Chris Godwin ($5,900)
Mike Williams ($5,700)
Christian Kirk ($5,600)
Dionte Johnson ($5,300)
Courtland Sutton ($5,200)** If Jeudy is OUT
Jordan Addison ($5,100)
Michael Thomas ($5,100)
George Pickens ($5,000)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900)
Nico Collins ($4,700)
Van Jefferson ($4,700)
Zay Flowers ($4,000)
Elijah Moore ($3,800)
Alec Pierce ($3,800)
Jonathan Mingo ($3,200)
Tank Dell ($3,000)
Michael Wilson ($3,000)
Jayden Reed ($3,000)
Puka Nacua ($3,000)
Marvin Mims ($3,000)
Tutu Atwell ($3,000)
TEs:
Tyler Higbee ($4,800)
Chalk or not I really don’t care there is pretty much no one to throw to in LA other than Higbee, Jefferson and maybe Puka Nacua who is a rookie. Higbee should be in line for all of the snaps and plenty of production here at a manageable price. I wish he was a tad bit cheaper, but with TE being such a crap shoot I will take the almost guaranteed 10 targets here for Higbee. The matchup is great in a high pace environment where the Rams will have to throw to catch up. This is my don’t get cute play even if the ownership is up there in the chalky range.
Hayden Hurst ($3,000)
The Panthers might be without both DJ Chark and Adam Thielen who picked up an ankle injury this week. Hurst has a rookie QB throwing him the ball and will have a rookie WR trying to contend for catches as their WR1 if both do sit. The Panthers can’t just run the ball the entire game. Someone has to get the targets and I think just based on skill level Hurst might be the most proven pass catcher on the team. I really like him where he is surrounded by literal backup TEs as the stand alone starting TE
Luke Musgrave ($2,900)
I have the same analysis for Musgrave as I did for Hurst. Watson and Doubs might both be out leaving Musgrave with a rookie WR trying to be a teams WR1 as one of the only guys to contend for targets with. Musgrave showed out in the preseason and really cemented his spot in this offense. We just saw last night LaPorta put up a solid stat line that I think Musgrave can match if not more. The implied usage in this game is just too high for the price tag to pass up. The game is projected to stay close so I don’t think the Packers will just abandon the passing game and let Jones and Dillion do all of the work. This could be a sneaky good spot for Musgrave to showcase his talents.
Other Considerations:
Dallas Goedert ($5,000)
Evan Engram ($4,700)
Kyle Pitts ($4,500)
Juwan Johnson ($3,900)
Chig Okonkwo ($3,800)
Trey McBride ($3,100)
Isaiah Likely ($3,000)
Cole Turner ($2,500)
