NFL - Jets vs. Bills Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
There is some serious dawgs up at the top that I know you will need to get to here. If you want a chance at all of them, punting CPTN is always something I look at. Does this game feature any players that are cheap that could provide solid upside at CPTN? At first glance there are 2 or 3 guys that will see snaps, run routes and have a chance at allowing you to get all of the studs in. Those guys are Deonte Harty ($300 CPTN), Mecole Hardman ($4,500 CPTN) and Randall Cobb ($5,100 CPTN). Is this me saying play these guys… no; not at all. I just think they provide enough salary relief where the opportunity cost of punting CPTN might become worth it. Deonte Harty is “projected” by Vegas to be the WR3 on this team and is the legit minimum. Him and Shakir will likely split with Harty getting the edge in snaps, but you can’t deny this price is way too cheap. Hardman and Cobb are legit going to be filtered in different packages, but should see similar work. I think Cobb’s track record with Rodgers gives him the edge for me, but Hardman probably has the higher upside in GPPs. If you want to use those guys at UTIL and not at CPTN I get that. They probably make more sense there anyways. Just in the off chance they get the TD or get more volume then Vegas suggests, you will want to capitalize on that possibly at CPTN so you can get the top priced plays in as well who will also produce. As for who I think has the best shot at being an optimal CPTN, there is no denying that Diggs is incredibly talented and can get break the slate on any given night. However, given the presence of Sauce Gardner on the other side, I will likely look to Gabe Davis ($10,800 CPTN) who also has a massive upside. Yes his floor is literally a goose egg, but if you want to take down a GPP, he is your guy. You will crap out completely sometimes betting on Gabe Davis, but on the 1 or 2 slates where he has a 5/120/2 type of game you will want to reap the rewards. That is my goal here with Davis. Vegas has him getting the 3rd most receiving yards in this game and the attention is 100% going to go to stopping the Diggs/Allen connection. Davis is very boom or bust, but I don’t want to miss out on his big game so I will always roll with him in SD formats at CPTN to capitalize on the upside. Next up is the man himself Josh Allen ($17,100 CPTN). The rushing upside paired with his passing is unmatched. This is a tough matchup there is no denying that. However, he is essentially matchup proof in the sense the Bills will score and Josh is likely to be the reason for that. I don’t know how much I believe in the run game. We are definitely in a “I will believe it when I see it” with that unit, so Josh is still the main man in this offense when they get to red zone. He probably has the highest upside on the slate in terms of raw points, so if you can get him at CPTN I would try to. Lastly, the only thing about the Jet’s offense that we know will hold set and stone this season is that Garrett Wilson ($15,600 CPTN) is the WR1 on this team. Him and Rodgers have already established a connection with Rodgers saying he is a special talent. Similar to Diggs, the matchup isn’t the best with Tre White on the other side of the field, but White doesn’t switch sides of the field. The Jets would be smart to gameplan Wilson away from him with pre-snap motions to get the ball into his hands. With the pace of play catering to both teams having to throw the ball, Wilson should be in line for a massive amount of volume here and has the talent to break the slate wide open.
Jets
The Jets are slight underdogs in this game, projected for 21.5 implied points and are going up against the 2nd ranked defense from last year in terms of points allowed/game. This is not going to be the easiest of matchups with the Bills returning plenty of starters on the defensive side and everyone healthy, but the Jets are employing a vastly different offense to last year. Aaron Rodgers ($9,800) might not be the MVP from years ago, but he is still a massive upgrade over Wilson. He will have some familiar faces to throw to in Allen Lazard ($6,400) and Randall Cobb ($3,400) along with Garrett Wilson ($10,400) and then RBs and TEs who we will talk about in a bit. At first glance, this team is set up pass early and once they have a lead they will establish the run and grind out wins. However, going against the Bills they might not be afforded that luxury. With that in mind, I really like targeting the passing attack and Wilson is at the top of that list. Honestly given he has very little rushing upside, I don’t even know if you need to roster Rodgers here. Their rushing attack has two very solid backs in Dalvin Cook ($7,800) and Breece Hall ($8,200) who will certainly get their fair share of the work tonight. I just think you have guys with more upside than Rodgers, including some of the guys he is throwing too. Allen Lazard is the WR2 of this offense but that doesn’t always mean that he is in line for the 2nd most passing work. I don’t know if he will be worth the price, but he certainly is a decent leverage play. Given their prices, I would lean towards Cobb or Hardman who are much cheaper. Cobb has the long standing repertoire with Rodgers so he could stand to benefit from that here. I think he still has something left in the tank and is affordably priced. He might not have the same ceiling as say a Mecole Hardman ($3,000), but will probably be more involved. Hardman is more of a gadget guy that will have certain packages just for him. Those guys are super boom or bust, which is perfect for GPPs. However, given it’s Week 1 and we really don’t know how some of these new guys will be used, I will probably try to wait and see on him and use him sparingly in my lineups (what I am trying to say is I prefer Cobb over Hardman in this spot). You can also go to Tyler Conklin ($4,800) who has the talent and this is definitely the best QB he has had the opportunity to play with. The usage will be there and he is affordably priced. I really don’t think you can go wrong with him here. You just need to know the ceiling isn’t the highest. From a pricing standpoint though there are guys above and below him with more upside. I never really talked about either of the RBs. The coaching staff has come out and said that Dalvin Cook will get the majority of the touches to allow for Breece to be eased back in. However, I think they still split and at these price tags that is not favorable. I think one of them would have to get a TD to be viable, but they make for great leverage. If I had to choose one I would go Dalvin. Lastly, we do have the backup TE in CJ Uzomah ($800) or backup RBs in Michael Carter ($2,000) and Israel Abanikanda ($1,200) who will see a few snaps here and there (Uzomah more than the 3rd and 4th string RBs). However from a usage standpoint these offenses are already pretty established so I do not think you need to go there with any of them.
Bills
The Bills are slight favorites in this game, projected for 24 points and are going up against the 4th ranked defense from last year in terms of points allowed/game. Again this isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, but any offense with Josh Allen ($11,400) is going to be able to move the ball and score points. I already noted it, but Allen has the highest ceiling on the slate so I would lock him to your lineup some how. This offense is a lot more straight forward to talk about given it really isn’t much different than last year. Stefon Diggs ($10,600) will get the most attention from Sauce Gardner which is truly a concern. I do think he is a true shut down CB and might shadow Diggs a good bit. Given the price that makes me a bit leery of playing him, but the talent alone is enough to still produce. I think it comes down to ownership. If Diggs is going to be top 2-3 in ownership for this game I will likely pivot. If others feel the same way I do and he is projected to come in lower owned then I might have a change of mind on playing him. I would much rather take my shots on Gabe Davis ($7,200) who in reality has a similar ceiling to Diggs, but a much lower floor. He is perfect for GPPs which is what I want I am looking for, but just know the risks associated with Davis are certainly high. The only question marks for this offense will be how they utilize Dalton Kincaid ($5,000) and who will be the 3rd target option between Deonte Harty ($200) or Khalil Shakir ($2,400). Starting with Kincaid, I think his talent is very much apparent. Word from the preseason is Kincaid will be on the field and not just at TE. He will line up in the slot at times which will move one of the WR3/4s off the field. The only downside is Kincaid will be fighting for TE time with Dawson Knox ($4,400) who I still think is a very talented TE. This situation is very similar to Breece vs. Dalvin in the sense one would have to fall into the endzone to be optimal and I wouldn’t play both in the same lineup. In my head I think they use Kincaid plenty tonight and he is just dependent on that TD to really become the optimal play. I really like him here. I feel the same for Knox but it is never good when your team drafts someone at your position high in the draft. This could mean the decline for Knox, but early on it usually means these two will push each other to be better and Kincaid will become more of the TE1 towards the middle-end of the season. That being said I would roll out Knox with confidence here, but just don’t play him with Kincaid in the same lineup. I also would like to add I think Kincaid and/or Knox have a bit higher ceiling compared to say Conklin on the other side given the run game for the Bills will likely not be as much of a feature. I say that to bring up James Cook ($8,000) who I think does take a big step this year. There is no Devin Singletary holding him back, but they did sign Damien Harris ($5,400) and Latavius Murray ($1,000) who will be available to steal some work and will certainly be the goal line backs over Cook. He will definitely get some work tonight, but with limited TD upside and his price being so high I don’t think I will get there. I could be wrong if Cook catches a lot of passes, but the Bills don’t target RBs at an elite level so you would probably need an outlier performance for it to happen. I will say I think the field sees James in a similar way, making him good leverage. As for Harris and Murray, I actually don’t hate them as leverage specifically Murray who was featured in the preseason as the RB2 more than Harris in some games. They both will get limited carries, but do have the TD upside which is important. I will finish by saying I didn’t reference Harty and Cobb in this portion, but I did touch on them in the CPTN section. I will reiterate my narrative that I lean towards playing Cobb, but Hardman does have he higher ceiling. I do have to mention that Trent Sherfield ($200) and Quintin Morris ($200) will see some snaps as the WR4-5 and TE3, but not enough to be worth rostering. Sherfield could emerge from this game in a better role than we imagined, but from what we have seen he is probably the furthest down the pecking order compared to Shakir and Harty in the WR room.
DST and K
I don’t want to get too wordy in this section, so given the higher implied total of the game and the value being prevalent, I would probably look away from the DSTs. If I had to lean one I would go Jets DST ($3,600) over the Bills DST ($3,800) given Josh Allen and some of the offensive weapons for the Bills are more turnover prone than Rodgers and company. As for the kickers, I think both are in play given the strengths of the defenses. There will be times that offenses will stall out, forcing FG attempts. Greg Zuerlein ($4,200) and Tyler Bass ($4,200) are definitely solid kickers as well so efficiency shouldn’t be an issue. Just don’t play them together in a lineup and be aware there are lower priced plays that definitely have higher ceilings. I would lean Bass over Zuerlein for the same reason as the defenses. I think the Jets can make some more stops leading to FGs compared to the Bills.
My Narratives
Josh Allen > everyone
Fade Rodgers and the Jets RBs
Gabe Davis 100+ receiving yards + TD
Knox > Kincaid
Cobb > Hardman
Harty at $200 is almost a lock
4/2 Bills stack is my preferred build
Bills win on the road 27-21
