NFL - Chiefs vs. Lions Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at each Tier and pick out who might be the chalk as well as who might be a good leverage play.
Tier #1: The Studs
Patrick Mahomes ($12,200)
Travis Kelce ($12,000)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10,200)
Jared Goff ($9,400)
Usually with this tier, you will want to try to get as many as you can without sacrificing too much at the backend and forcing yourself to 2-3 Tier 5 Punts. With or without Kelce, I think Mahomes is a lock here given the absurdly soft pricing at the bottom end. He just has a ceiling so much higher than everyone else, so get him where you can. Then it becomes can ASB outscore Goff and by how much. There will be a significant focus on stopping ASB without Jameson Williams to stretch the field. I would probably lean saving money on Goff even if the ownership is a touch higher. With how suspect the Chiefs front 7 might be given Chris Jones is holding out, I think the Lions lean more on their newly built backfield to churn the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands'. Those two factors make it a little tough to want either Goff or ASB, but I would lean Goff here. However, with how soft the pricing is, Goff and ASB still have the highest upsides so they are more than fine plays. Just know if you try to get all of Mahomes, Goff and ASB, you need to get very different with how you construct your team to avoid duping with 100s of people. Mahomes is really the only sure fire one from this tier that I would want in 100% of my lineups regardless of ownership. If Kelce plays then I think he will be a decoy so most likely avoid. However, he would come in massively under owned for the upside.
Tier #2: Consistent Starters
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,200)
Kadarius Toney ($7,000)
Isiah Pacheco ($6,800)
David Montgomery ($6,600)
Marvin Jones ($6,200)
This is usually the tier that gets forgotten about with the field stacking the studs and being forced down to the Tier 3/4/5 guys to make the lineup work. Usually this is the spot to gain leverage and I think this slate is no different. All 5 of the above guys will likely be under owned. You will get a lot of people going Mahomes/Goff/ASB with Kelce out and then feed on the bottom tier players. Maybe going with just two of them and then getting two of the guys in this tier to lower total ownership is a smarter move. Starting with the shiny new toy, Gibbs should see a ton of work in the passing game which caters to DK scoring. They have already said they might use him some out in the slot which is a big boost. He might not get the goal line work, but he is listed as RB1 and needs to be treated as such. Like I said above, the front 7 for the Chiefs is not elite by any stretch, so the Lions game plan should be lean on the run to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. I don’t think Gibbs will get the most carries, but the ceiling is still very high. I expect Montgomery to get the bulk of the carries and goal line work, but the Chiefs are still likely to hold a lead most of the game. They might not be able to afford to give Montgomery or Gibbs the ball 25+ times unless their defense can keep them in the game. While I like Montgomery’s price, the floor is fairly low if the game gets out of hand and the ceiling would be multiple TD runs which I don’t think is going to happen. Toney is questionable so it isn’t clear what role he will even play. I think he has spent more time on IR than playing over the last few years, but when he is healthy and on the field he is electric. The only concern is I don’t see Andy Reid rushing him back to a huge workload when they have 7-8 WRs dressed for this game. His receptions/route run numbers are elite and even in 15-20 routes could result in 7-10 touches which is wild. However the floor is literally he gets 5-10 snaps to shake off the rust and only touches the ball a few times. He is a homerun hitter as long as his legs hold up. Just keep an eye on news for what his role might be in, but I don’t think he will have much of a role. Pacheco fits a similar role with him being limited this offseason due to injury. The Chiefs could easily go with CEH or McKinnon to slowly work him back into shape. He just runs with so much aggression when he does play and is priced fairly so I have no problem going to him. He will probably be under owned, so I don’t mind it. Lastly, Marvin Jones is the epitome of reliable and consistent. He will likely play most of the snaps, accumulate a good amount of routes and certainly won’t garner as much attention as ASB or the RBs. I love him here in a pass heavy environment to keep up with the Chiefs. Ownership will likely drift down to the next tier when roster construction heavily favors a stars and scrubs approach.
Tier #3 - Mid Range Flyers
Jerick McKinnon ($5,600)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400)
Sam LaPorta ($5,000)
Skyy Moore ($4,800)
Rashee Rice ($4,600)
This tier will get a massive amount of ownership. All of these guys outside of maybe McKinnon and Rice are underpriced for the projected role and that can’t be denied. MVS and Moore are being pegged as starters that should get somewhere between 70-90% of the snaps and routes run. I think MVS is more boom or bust with his ability to stretch the field. His target share should increase with the new role and Kelce likely out, but that “new role” could be to bring the secondary back opening up the underneath and middle of the field. That is Skyy Moore’s territory and I think he could thrive in this spot. The Lions have a pretty solid front 7 that could limit Mahomes’ time to throw. Hopefully the Chiefs are being honest about their expectations and role for Skyy because it should be night and day from his usage last season. For this game both are in a great spot and I have no problem playing them together even in the ownership is high. LaPorta could be a sneaky option that goes under owned for this game. It really comes down to if the industry hypes him up or not. If they don’t I will certainly be playing him in bunches. I think the narrative that “rookie TEs don’t produce” is way overdramatized. With no Jameson Williams and a QB that likes to get the ball to his TE, LaPorta will likely get a solid amount of work tonight. It will likely come down to whether or not he can score, but compared to MVS and Moore he will be under owned. If we are going to play the ownership game, LaPorta is likely the leverage. McKinnon’s role might be limited if they can get a lead early, but with Kelce likely out I think there is more of a chance this game stays competitive. I would keep an eye on RB usage pre-game. If we see some CEH get filtered in with the starters, that likely means Pacheco is going to be limited which give McKinnon and CEH more opportunities. I am going to say McKinnon is a bad play tonight, but I never get him right so trust your own gut on him not mine. Lastly, Rashee Rice had a good preseason and showcased his talents well. I just don’t know if he will have enough of a role here. He is likely the WR4 at best and 5-6th in terms of offensive usage. At this price, I would rather take Moore for just $200 more. He still makes for great leverage, but it is probably not worth the risk. He would need a TD to viable in my opinion.
Tier #4: The Leftovers
Harrison Butker ($4,400)
Riley Patterson ($4,200)
Chiefs DST ($3,800)
Lions DST ($3,200)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($3,600)
Josh Reynolds ($2,800)
Noah Gray ($2,400)
Richie James ($2,000)
So given the injury to Kelce, we could get some mega chalk from this range. We might as well address the elephant in the room that the Chiefs might only have two TEs tonight and one might be Noah Gray. They probably have had a gameplan in place for quite some time that involved Kelce in bunches. With him going down just 3 days prior to kickoff, they might be forced to instill the same gameplan but instead have Gray be the benefactor. This is one of those situations where you either need to be all in or all out on Gray. At his price, I don’t see how you can fade him. He will be projected easily 5-7 DK points more than the next closest person down here if Kelce is out (which I am assuming he will be). Just be aware of what a 40% owned Gray will do to your lineup. You will need to get seriously different in 1 or 2 other spots to offset that. I don’t know if you can even find a unique construction that involves Gray tonight that won’t be chopped with tons of people. Now that we have addressed that, lets just move on to DSTs and Ks as a group. Butker and Patterson in a high implied total spot might make some jump onto them. However, high implied total games and fast scripts usually mean the position players have more chances for scoring. That could mean unless the kickers get plenty of FG opportunities, they will fall behind in scoring. I think they are fine to play, but certainly don’t play both in the same lineup and I wouldn’t CPTN either of them. As for DSTs, they could be massive leverage tonight, but I can’t envision either of them scoring well. You would need a defensive TD for either to get there so it is a fade for me. Now we are getting down to the guys that have a shot at being optimal, but would need a lot of things to go there way. They are certainly GPP plays only so don’t try to run anyone other than Gray or the kickers down here in cash. The most obvious thing to point out is they will all be very low owned with how the pricing has been structured and the Kelce news opening up Gray to be an easy play. CEH is likely to still be in the rotation to spell Pacheco who didn’t get much involvement this offseason due to injury. I would rather have the kickers for a little bit more, but there is an avenue to him succeeding. I see 8-12 touches for him tonight and there is an off chance he scores a TD. If you are running 20 lineups or more I would try to get him in atleast one. Josh Reynolds should come in as the WR3, have around a 60-70% snap share and run a solid number of routes. He is probably my favorite punt if I am going to go this low since there is some upside. The game script should involve Goff throwing the ball upwards of 40 times if the Chiefs play like the SB winning team they are. The talent at the WR position outside of ASB is limited and scattered with rookies (Gibbs and LaPorta). It isn’t like we have never seen Reynolds produce when given the opportunity, with a 3 game stretch just last year where he amassed 19/269/2 with injuries to the WR group. Why can’t he do that same thing here? Lastly Richie James is in a tough spot. The Chiefs could be coming into this game with 8 WRs on the depth chart and almost all of them will see some playing time. You would have to imagine Toney, Moore and MVS will see the bulk and then Ross, Watson and James will be the rotation pieces. Given Ross and Watson are over $1,000 cheaper and probably have the same upside, I would lean towards playing them first.
Tier #5: The Punts
Justyn Ross ($1,000)
Kalif Raymond ($800)
Brock Wright ($600)
Justin Watson ($200)
Blake Bell ($200)
This range is almost always going to be one to avoid unless you have a big outlier outlook for one of them due to injury or whatever it might be. Ross and Watson are likely to be in on less than 40% of the plays. I do like Ross’ upside and the coaches have been raving about him all offseason. The Clemson alum in me wants to say I love Ross in this spot, but there is too much attention on him and almost everyone that is going to be going this low for value will be playing Ross. I could be wrong, but he feels like a trap tonight. Play him in a week or two when Toney inevitably gets hurt and Ross gets bumped up the pecking order or his ownership comes down significantly. Watson probably sees more opportunity and is the flat minimum in pricing, so he actually makes some sense as a deep tournament play. I just don’t know if you will need to go there. Still an interesting play. Raymond will probably get more snaps than Ross and about in line with Watson, but targeting the 7th option, at best, in a Showdown format is a recipe to be let down. I probably wouldn’t go there, but he is interesting. Bell and Wright are just backups that will get snaps and are worth mentioning. However, I wouldn’t consider playing them at all unless you are running 150 lineups and maybe then they get into 1 lineup at best.
