NFL - Week 1 Reflections & Takeaways
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Week 1 is in the books and the offseason speculation and concerns have finally come to light. Every week, I want to highlight a key takeaway from each team to hopefully find some patterns to help us start creating new trends for each team. While each team might have plenty of things to take away from that week’s games, I want to detail one that the media not be as focused on. The hope is that we can recognize these patterns before the rest of the field does, giving us leverage in the coming weeks. No need to ramble… let’s dive right in!
Cardinals:
Zach Ertz had twice as many targets as the next highest person on the team with 10 targets. He hasn’t missed a beat since going down to injury last season and should be in line for solid work this season. The Cardinals will be playing from behind often so this usage should remain somewhat consistent (I don’t expect 10 targets every game). I think he is definitely worth rostering in fantasy as a starting TE option or FLEX.
Falcons:
The Falcons will lead the league in fewest plays by a mile this season with how often they run the ball. With that in mind, I don’t see an avenue for Drake London or Kyle Pitts to have a productive season for where they were drafted. They will have good games, but in fantasy if you can get solid value in a trade for them I would do it.
Ravens:
It is extremely concerning that Rashad Bateman only played on 39% of the snaps with OBJ and Flowers playing on 85%+ of the snaps. The were down Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins got hurt and still went to Likely and Ricard more than him. I think it might be due to the offseason injury, but keep an eye on this. It also doesn’t help that Lamar did not look good throwing the ball. The offseason change at OC to Tedd Monken and expecting a more pass happy offense might be a bit overblown.
Bills:
There are so many things I could touch base on, but the Bills targeted their RBs out of the backfield at an elite rate last night. With James Cook getting a vast majority of the touches, his outlook for the rest of the season is a lot more positive in my opinion. That and the defense might be the only two bright spots (outside of Diggs) from the Monday night loss to the Jets without Rodgers for 99% of the game.
Panthers:
The Panthers ran 72 total plays and only amassed 10 points… This offense is likely to be very inefficient for the majority of the season unless DJ Chark can return and make a real impact. The only bright spot seemed to be Hayden Hurst who led the team in targets and looked like the only comfortable target for Young. I would be skeptical of starting any one from this team with efficiency being a major concern.
Bears:
This offense is just broken. There is barely any direction and Fields gave me no indication that he will take the next step. With that being said, given the draft capital spent, DJ Moore is likely to be extremely inconsistent this year and doesn’t even have a lot of upside. He was T5th in targets which could have been due to Jaire Alexander’s presence, but the Bears should be game planning to get him the ball more. There is a lot to be concerned about.
Bengals:
I think we need to pump the breaks on being too concerned about the Bengals from Week 1. It was pouring rain all game, Joe Burrow missed a vast majority of the important offseason practices due to injury and the Browns defense isn’t anything to write off. They came out flat, but should rebound in the coming weeks. With that said, I am very satisfied with the role that Joe Mixon played. There were some off the field concerns that for some reason pumped his ADP down, but the role will be there going forward. I don’t think there is much to worry about for anyone on this team. They just had a bad week.
Browns:
I could come in and talk about how Nick Chubb got receiving work so be prepared for a top 5 RB season from him. However, I am more impressed with Elijah Moore’s role in Week 1. He was tied with Cooper with 7 targets and got some designed runs as well. There was some concern that he might be the WR3 behind DPJ or Njoku would be more of a factor. I think he is in line for a good season as long as Watson can shake some of the rust off.
Cowboys:
Is there really anything you can take away here when they basically played against a JV team. I kid, but in reality a takeaway that you won’t see in the box score is Jake Ferguson could just be a Dalton Schultz 2.0 in this offense. He led the team in targets and was a major part of the offense until the game turned into a blowout. He might be worth a pickup in fantasy as a TE stash if he is still available.
Broncos:
Another team where there are a lot of things to talk about. I think the most important for DFS or Fantasy has to be in trailing game scripts the Broncos are going to use Samaje Perine a lot more than Javonte Williams. This offense doesn’t have the best weapons with Jeudy out, so I would expect in the short term for them to be trailing quite often. I would be hesitant to start Javonte, but Perine is looking like the Darren Sproles-lite that Sean Payton used to run back in NO. These two split the snaps with 29 each with Perine being more efficient on the ground. I am not writing off Williams, but I am a little bit concerned.
Lions:
I would not expect the Lions to keep Jahmyr Gibbs contained too long. He only played on 19 snaps (27%) which is a bit concerning, but when he had the ball in his hands he looked a lot more electric than Montgomery was. He boasted 6 YPC and should get some work in the receiving game soon. They spent way too much draft capital on him to play him this little.
Packers:
There was only 1 QB in the league with 3+ TDs and no INTs… Jordan Love. This Packers offense even without Christian Watson was still able to move the ball fairly well with Aaron Jones carrying a majority of the load. The biggest takeaway is Jordan Love likes to spread the ball around a whole lot. 6 players got over 3 targets with none getting over 5 targets. That will probably change week to week and when Watson returns. However, the only consistent piece is likely to be Aaron Jones who is too explosive too not get the ball 10+ times per game.
Texans:
I was concerned in the offseason and I am still going to be concerned. The Texans will be in trailing scripts almost 80% of the season and Dameon Pierce is not part of that script. He might get some catches here and there, but for the capital you spent on him I would be trying to see if I can get an RB in a better offense for him. The offensive line is just not that good either so unless he falls into the endzone I don’t know how efficient he can be.
Colts:
I will keep this short and sweet… the Colts need Jonathan Taylor to show up or they need to trade him and get an RB in return. Deon Jackson is not it and can probably be dropped in most fantasy leagues. Zack Moss is not that great either and will likely split carries with Jackson until some change comes or Taylor does return. Hopefully Anthony Richardson can get healthy and learn how to protect his body better because this offense is primed to breakout if and when Taylor returns. I also want to touch on the fact that Josh Downs and Kylen Granson were a lot more involved than expect and keep an eye on that. I didn’t keep this short and sweet at all my bad haha.
Jaguars:
There are two aspect of this team that I am shocked to see. First, Zay Jones had the most routes run and most snaps of the WR group which was very unexpected. With that happening, Christian Kirk who showed out last season and is being paid WR1 money has basically been relegated to the WR3 role which is not good for his outlook. Zay Jones is definitely startable going forward and Christian Kirk would be going straight to my bench until he can showcase his talents or see a snap share bump.
Chiefs:
I could just say Kadarius Toney sucks and move on, but with Matt Nagy coming in as the OC he has changed the dynamic of this backfield slightly. Isiah Pacheco got 4 catches this week which is more than the number of targets he got in any game last season. Jerick McKinnon’s expected role is seriously diminished and I would be very concerned if I owned him in fantasy. He is going to be borderline droppable because the Chiefs won’t be in trailing/shootout scripts often and that was McKinnon’s bread and butter. If they are just going to leave Pacheco in to get that work with McKinnon coming in sparingly then give Pacheco a massive boost and possibly drop McKinnon.
Raiders:
This team ran exactly how I expect it to so not much to takeaway. I think the biggest thing was Jakobi Meyers will be a great piece in this offense aside Adams so hopefully he can get and stay healthy. He got put in concussion protocol and might miss this coming week, so expect Adams and Jacobs to get a massive workload until he returns.
Chargers:
I am not even going to write about a player here. FIRE BRANDON STALEY!!! This man is immune at winning close or important games and I get he isn’t the one out on the field but his time has come. Let Kellen Moore come in and be the head coach and maybe they will let Herbert finally showcase his talents. There is zero reason they should only be throwing the ball 33 times and running it that much in a shootout. Also their defense is just dreadful and has been since he became coach.
Rams:
There is way too much to talk about so I am not going to limit myself here; I am going to talk about all of it. Puka Nacua is the truth. While Cooper Kupp is out, he is going to be Stafford’s main target and should be rostered in every league. Even when Kupp returns they will probably feature him as the WR3 probably behind Van Jefferson. That right there is my biggest takeaway. I expect Van and Tyler Higbee to be the major benefactors of Kupp’s absence. They got a combined 8 targets compared to Puka and Atwell’s 23 targets. That is a massive difference and it will be interesting to see how that holds until Kupp comes back. Also, Cam Akers was out-snapped and massively outplayed by second year RB Kyren Williams. I am officially calling it quits on Akers. I think McVay will be officially done with him after that stinker of a performance. I think Kyren is definitely worth a pickup in all formats. I think he will quickly become the feature
Dolphins:
Tyreek Hill might legitimately smash the 2,000 yard mark and not look back. He has elevated himself as the WR1 in the Jefferson or Chase conversation which is very much justified. However, that isn’t my biggest takeaway. I actually think it is that Jaylen Waddle might not be as big of a feature in this offense as some expect. He was T3rd in targets and tied with Berrios and Cracraft who in the second half were way more active. I could see a lot of boom or bust weeks for Waddle if Hill actually took that next step and the offense not having to be as pass heavy (they won’t always have to score 35+ points to win).
Vikings:
If you looked at the box score stats and not the score you would not have expected them to lose at home. I think the biggest takeaway is Jordan Addison might have scored, but he only played on 50% of the snaps and was still tied with KJ Osborn in targets with 6. I still think he is the WR3 in this offense and will have some good and bad weeks, but pump the breaks after just one week where he scored a long ball TD. Without that one play he really didn’t do all that much.
Patriots:
I am really impressed with how solid Mac Jones played and actually kept pace with the Eagles after a terrible 1st quarter. The biggest takeaway for me is that Kendrick Bourne might emerge as the WR1 after receiving a team high 11 targets. I still think he will have his boom and bust weeks, but he tore apart a tough Eagles secondary. He was the only WR on the team that got over 70% of the snaps which is very encouraging.
Saints:
We all know how well Jamaal Williams produced last year with the Lions and expected similar TD production this season. We can definitely pump the breaks on that take. Yeah he will still get the bulk of the carries for the next few games, but once Alvin Kamara comes back it will be his backfield and Jamaal will become an afterthought other than some red zone work and short yardage.
Giants:
Everyone on this offense will suck outside of Darren Waller and Saquon Barkley, but its hard to trust anyone. Daniel Jones looks at his first read and then scrambles. There is no cohesiveness to this offense other than Saquon doing whatever he can to keep this team on the field. The worst part for him is you probably spent a 1st or 2nd rounder on him in fantasy and will have some serious bust weeks.
Jets:
Let’s take a moment of silence to announce the end of the Jet’s Super Bowl chances… I would be scared going forward for everyone except Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. I get they pulled out a win but Josh Allen did everything he could to hand the Jets that game. The consistency and efficiency will not be there without Rodgers. It is just that simple. If you can go trade for Wilson on the low that actually seems like a decent move, but good luck getting Breece unless you already have him. I think this team is just going to lean on the run, specifically Breece, and try to grind out wins. Times are tough in New York right now.
Eagles:
D’Andre Swift got 2 total touches… barring an injury I think his time as a young, up in coming RB is coming to an end. His inability to pass block clearly has to be such an issue that they can’t trust him out on the field. Kenneth Gainwell did pick up an injury which could vault Swift into a short term role, but for all we know they could bring Penny up and give him all the work. This backfield is going to be a mess all year to figure out and that is to almost no one’s surprise. The Eagles’ depth chart before Week 1 came out had all 4 RBs listed as the lead back. Good luck figuring it out every week when Hurts is the true RB1.
Steelers:
I will give them the slight benefit of the doubt; they played a very tough 49ers defense. However, Kenny Pickett looked really shaky and that backfield is going to be a headache and a half. I think at this point the offseason talk was real and Najee Harris is going to be in a committee backfield with Jaylen Warren. I don’t think without a random TD or injury either of these guys will be any more than a FLEX play in fantasy. I would try to move them if you can get fair value back.
49ers:
There is no reason to over react to anything for this team. If the Super Bowl was today I would most certainly take the 49ers to be the favorites. That offense is just going to be off the charts good. I think my biggest takeaway, which might shock some, is pump the breaks on Brandon Aiyuk. He has made a career so far out of having middling games then booming for 100+ yards and a TD. With Deebo, CMC and Kittle all getting similar targets you would have to expect their weeks to come as well which will cause Aiyuk to regress back to his norm. I still think he is incredibly talented and will have great weeks, but don’t expect that type of a performance every week.
Seahawks:
I am not as concerned with the Rams loss as some might be. I just think everyone expected the Rams without Kupp, Ramsey and Wagner to be a shell of their former selves but they still have some great players and have a great coach. I think my biggest takeaway is Kenneth Walker is going to be the guy in this backfield. All offseason the hype was around Charbonnet and how he might come in and steal a good amount of touches. Walker in Week 1 out touched him 16-3 and had a 64% snap share to Zach’s 29%. I do think Charbonnet should be held incase of a KW injury, but right now it is definitely Walker’s backfield
Buccaneers:
Great team win to start out the season. There are two major takeaways from this team. The first is Mike Evans is going to continue his 1000 receiving yards streak with how much Baker will target him downfield. Even if they don’t convert on them frequently, his 10 targets Week 1 solidify his spot as the WR1. Godwin is great, but Baker’s strengths are in downfield passing which is what Evans provides. The second takeaway is I would be concerned about Rachaad White. His efficiency issues last year were a major concern coming into this year and he opens with a 2.3 YPC outing on 17 rushes… that is bad. To a certain extent Sean Tucker looked better than him in his limited run.
Titans:
When are they going to go to Malik Willis or Will Levis? Ryan Tannehill looked horrific and pretty much lost them this game. I am very glad to see DeAndre Hopkins get a massive target share so I wouldn’t be afraid of starting him. However, Treylon Burks is probably going to be a bye week filler at best with how much this team wants to just run the ball. Nothing more to say other than Tannehill needs to be benched.
Commanders:
Antonio Gibson is going to be an after thought by the end of the season. An early fumble will probably put him in the dog house and Brian Robinson very much capitalized on the bulk of the workload. I wish Robinson hadn’t scored so trading for him in fantasy would be easier because I think he is going to be the bell cow going forward with Gibson getting exclusively receiving work. Gibson has had ample time to showcase why he can be a lead back and has always fumbled it away… literally.
